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Showing posts with label Outperform. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Outperform. Show all posts

Thursday, June 7, 2012

$Australian dollar and the pound sterling outperform the PBoC, BoE

Fundamental headlines
-Finnish leader said we concerned European banks - Bloomberg
-Map of Obama re-election shaken after the victory of the Walker Wisconsin - Bloomberg
-Spain passes a Test market, Merkel plonge Summit hopes - Reuters
-China cut its interest rates - WSJ
-Officials say Fed may need to act - WSJ
Summary of Asian and European Session
After the massive rally of yesterday - in fact the largest gathering since December by the Australian Dollar and the Dow Jones Industrial Average since December 20, 2011 - it would seem that all the world's problems have been resolved. The Australian economy, for example, has completed the "Triple Crown" for his important releases this week: a dove under Reserve Bank of Australia than expected, which helps maintain yields high; a blowout first quarter, the growth of reading, which means may be exaggerated fears of Asian growth. and market the work of reading for may burst, and while he showed that the rate of unemployment to check higher (from 5.1% to 5.0%), which is a further symptom of workers entering the labour market.
Flash forward in the European and senior session giving currencies and correlated with the risk assets started out. The flight safety was purely temporary - as central banks were active in the market. In considering the economic role, action price near the beginning of the European session would lead one to believe that the Bank of England had crossed and eased its monetary policy. Instead, it is the people's Bank of China which was active in the market, and, in a surprise gesture, the Central Bank announced that its one year loan and deposit rates would increase by 25-basis points, effect of Friday. Thus, even if the market participants have been largely disappointed by the inaction of the Bank of England, they received stimulus package that they have been nostalgia, comes from a different source.
A large part of the event was based on the hope that the central banks around the world will be facilitated. Frankly, it is difficult to think of a legitimate reason how the testimony of today by the President of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke will respect the hype surrounding it since lamentable payrolls report non-farm Friday. The Fed has made clear that it is taking transparency and credibility seriously now, and a few months of employment after employment growth exceptionally strong growth is not to change monetary policy - yet. In addition, in the light of what is in course with the weakening of Asian and European growth prospects, the US economy has been perform relatively better. Also, for the form: when was the last time that a President of the Fed announced plans for a major boost in testimony to Congress?
Take a look at credit, the debt of the European periphery continues to show signs of improvement, led by none other than the notes of Italian and Spanish on the shorter end of the yield curve. The Italian 2-year note yield fell to 3.569% while the performance in Spanish note 2 years fell to 4.122%; These two are seated at their low weekly in terms of performance (or highs in price).
AUDUSD 5 graphic min: 7 June 2012

Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The Australian Dollar was subsequently today top interpreter reading blowout labour market and the rate of the PBoC cut, wins an another 0.65% against the U.S. Dollar (and now is 3.02% since Friday). The pound sterling also exploded more after the BoE chose not to change monetary policy, including the GBPUSD of 0.54% appreciation. The Japanese Yen continues to weaken, excretion of 0.63%.
24-Hour price Action
Australian_Dollar_and_British_Pound_Outperform_on_PBoC_BoE_body_Picture_10.png, Australian Dollar and British Pound Outperform on PBoC, BoE
Australian_Dollar_and_British_Pound_Outperform_on_PBoC_BoE_body_Picture_19.png, Australian Dollar and British Pound Outperform on PBoC, BoE
Australian_Dollar_and_British_Pound_Outperform_on_PBoC_BoE_body_Picture_13.png, Australian Dollar and British Pound Outperform on PBoC, BoE
Main levels: 14: 50 GMT
So far, on Thursday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is low, trade 10152.96 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 10171.71. The index traded mostly lower, with the high in the 10190.54 and the 10144.37 low.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

=> Euro Eyes Support Ahead Of Spain Bond Auction, Sterling To Outperform

18 April 2012 13:25 GMT  Talking Points
Euro: ECB Moves Away From Non-Standard Measures, Spain Bond Auction In Focus British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1 For APF, Sees Sticky Inflation U.S. Dollar: Struggling On Risk Appetite, 9,900 Key For Index Euro: ECB Moves Away From Non-Standard Measures, Spain Bond Auction In Focus
Heightening fears surrounding the European periphery pushed the EURUSD down to 1.3066 during the overnight trade, and the single currency may come under increased pressure over the next 24-hours of trading should Spain’s debt auction disappoint. Indeed, we’ve seen greater demands for short-term debt in light of the European Central Bank’s three-year loan facility, but a dismal 10-Year bond sale could spark a sharp selloff in the exchange rate as heightening finance costs across the region raises the threat for contagion. At the same time, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti scaled back his pledge to balance public finances as the government raised the 2013 deficit target to 0.5% of GDP from 0.1%, and the weakening outlook for the euro-area may lead the European Central Bank to carry out its easing cycle throughout 2012 as it aims to stem the risk for a prolonged recession.
As the governments operating under the single currency become increasingly reliant on monetary support, European Central Bank board member Jens Weidmann argued that the limits of the bond purchase program have ‘become apparent’ according to an interview with Reuters, and talked down speculation for another Long Term Refinancing Operation as the non-standard measure fails to stem the risk for contagion. At the same time, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde said ‘there is scope’ for lower borrowing costs in the euro-area as the central bank expects to see easing price pressures going into the following year. In turn, we may see ECB President Mario Draghi target the benchmark interest rate as there appears to be a growing rift within the Governing Council, and we will preserve our bearish call on the EURUSD as price action continues to approach the apex of the descending triangle. As the euro-dollar falls back towards support around 1.3000, a break below this key figure would expose the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2630-50, and the pair looks poised to track lower throughout the year as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak.
British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1 For APF, Sees Sticky Inflation
The British Pound made another run at 1.6000 as the Bank of England Minutes dampened speculation for additional monetary support, and the sterling should continue to outperform against its major counterparts as the central bank looks to conclude its easing cycle. Indeed, the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to maintain the Asset Purchase Facility at GBP 325B as board member Adam Posen scaled back his vote for more quantitative easing, while the central bank continued to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy in light of the stickiness in price growth. As the GBPUSD continues to comes off of the higher low around 1.5800, the upward trending channel should take shape going forward, and we may ultimately see a run at the 23.6% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.6250 amid the shift in the policy outlook.
U.S. Dollar: Risk Sentiment To Drive Prices, Index Eyes 10,000
The greenback snapped back on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)advancing to 9,971, and the reserve currency looks poised to appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as the flight to safety gather pace. As the economic docket remains fairly light for the North American session, risk trends should dictate price action across the major currencies, and the shift away from risk-taking behavior may gather pace going into the middle of the week as fears surrounding the sovereign debt crisis drags on market sentiment. As the USDOLLAR maintains the upward trend from earlier this year, the index looks poised to push back above 10,000 as it carves out a higher floor around 9,900.

Monday, April 9, 2012

USD, Yen Outperform as NFPs Prompt Risk Sell-Off

The Japanese yen is the highest performing currency against a stronger greenback in early trade with the USD/JPY US off by 0.42% on the session. Equity markets were off sharply at the open after a disappointing non-farm payroll report on Friday came in at 120 K, missing expectations for a print of 206 K. Classic risk-off flows have continued to support the low yielders with the greenback and the yen acting as the chief beneficiaries of haven flows with yen advances continuing to outpace those of the dollar early in the session.
The USD/JPY has continued to trade within the confines of a descending channel training dating back to the 21st of March with interim support seen resting at the 100% Fibonacci extension taken from the March 21 1st and April 1st at 81.18 crests. A break below this training risks further dollar losses with subsequent floors seen at the 81-figure and the 123.6% extension at 80.70. Interim topside resistance stands at 81.40 with a break above the 78.6% extension at 81.63 offering further belief it long to the 61.8% extension at the 82-figure. Our medium-term outlook on the together remains weighted to the topside with only a daily close below 80.70 negating our directional bias.
Key Levels/Indicators
The euro is the weakest performer against the dollar with the pair off by 0.21% on the session. A daily chart shows critical support for the single currency at the 50% Fibonacci tracing taken from the January 16th advance at 1.3055 and trendline support taken from the February 16th low, currently at 1.3035. Daily resistance stands with the 100 - day moving average at 1.3142 and is backed by the 38.2% tracing at 1.3155 closely. Note that RSI continued to trade within the descending channel training with only a breach above channel resistance negating our bearish bias.
The intra-day chart shows the pair testing trendline resistance of the descending channel training dating back to the April 3rd high after failing testing key support at 1.3035 daily in overnight trade. Interim support targets below this level are eyed at the 78.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the February 24th and March 27th at the crests 1. 30-figure, and 1.2960 1.2980. A breach above the 61.8% extension at 1.3085 negates the short-term bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent ceilings at 1.3115, the 50% extension at 1.3145 and 1.3180. For complete scalp targets on the EUR/USD refer to last week's Scalp Report. Look to volatility in the pair to pick up tomorrow as European markets come back online from the Easter holiday break.