$$US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

13 June 2012 01: 38 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning warns that a significant medium-term top may be taking shape. S & P 500 positioning still seems to call for weakness.
S & P 500 - Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-April, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1292.90, with a break below that exposing 1265.30. Trend line resistance is now at 1329.10, with a break above that targeting upside barriers at 1357.40 and 1392.10.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL - Prices took out support at 83.30 the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 23.6% barrier at 81.07. A break beneath this boundary targets the 80.00 figure and the 38.2 Fib at 77.33%. The 14.6% expansion has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that targeting the June 7 at the 87.00 high figure.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD - Prices broke back above the 1600/oz figure to challenge resistance at 1616.23, the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci tracing and a falling trend line set from early March. A break above this boundary exposed the 76.4% Fib at 1637.35. The 1600 level has been recast as near-term support, with added reinforcement coming in courtesy of the 50% tracking at 1599.17.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR - Prices continues to look for direction above support in the 10134-43 area, which now appears like the would-be neckline of a Head and Shoulders top chart training. A break lower confirms the setup and initially opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10066. The H & S training would imply a measured downside target at 9945. Near-term resistance lines up at 10220, the 61.8% Fib, with a higher targeting the 76.4% boundary at 10316 breach.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

FOREX NEWS - Profit taking knocks wind out of euro, ECB eyed

* Euro rally fizzles, yen off lows as selloff halts
* S&P cuts Greece ratings to 'selective default'
* Italy to sell bonds ahead of ECB liquidity injection
By Ian Chua
SYDNEY, Feb 28 (Reuters) - The euro nursed modest losses in Asia on Tuesday, while the yen held on to overnight gains ahead of another flood of cheap cash from the European Central Bank that could bolster risk appetite and put the yen under pressure again.
News that Standard & Poor's cut its ratings on Greece to 'selective default' barely lifted an eyebrow as Athens' efforts to lighten its debt burden was largely expected to trigger the downgrade, traders said.
The euro stood at $1.3392 versus $1.3397 late in New York, having retreated from a near three-month peak of $1.3486 set Friday. Immediate support is seen in the $1.3355/64 area, recent lows, with $1.3291 marking the 38.2 percent retracement of the Feb 16-24 rise.
Against the yen, the single currency slid to 107.90 from a four-month peak of 109.90 touched on Monday.
That helped the yen halt its broad slide against other currencies as well. The dollar fell to 80.44 yen, off a nine-month peak of 81.61 set on Monday.
Still, the greenback was up nearly 6 percent this month against the Japanese currency, which has been on the ropes since the Bank of Japan surprised by easing monetary policy.
Japan's trade deficit, interest rate differentials, an improving U.S. economy and higher oil prices have also conspired to pull the yen lower.
Traders said these factors remained intact and the yen's bounce overnight, along with the euro's pullback, were just a correction, believing that risk sentiment will be supported by the ECB's liquidity injection.
A Reuters poll of money traders showed banks will take up half a trillion euros of ECB funds, roughly the same as the previous offering last year. This is seen buying more time for authorities to sort out the sovereign debt crisis.
"Our best guess is in the 300-400 billion euros region and we would anticipate any short-term market reaction will be based on how much this take-up supports the recent risk rally," BNP Paribas analysts said.
"To this end, we would expect yen crosses to weaken further on a figure at or above our 'guess-timate', and to strengthen if the figure is announced around the 100-200 billion euros mark."
News of Greece's downgrade by S&P came just hours after the German parliament endorsed a second bailout for the debt-laden country with a comfortable 496-90 victory.
S&P said if Greece's debt exchange drew the required number of acceptances it would upgrade its rating to CCC. However, the lack of a deal, which it expected by March 12, would likely result in an outrigh payment default.
The pullback in the euro helped push the dollar up 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies.
Commodity currencies clawed back some of their recent losses against the euro, but relinquished some gains on the yen. Against the greenback, the Australian dollar sped up to $1.0750, from Monday's low of $1.0650, but remained in the recent range of $1.0600/$1.0845.
Japanese retail sales data is due later on Tuesday, followed by German inflation and euro zone economic sentiment. Focus will also be on Italy's bond sale worth an estimated 6.25 billion euros.

TradeTheNews.com European market update: large European PMI services data continue to risk taking on better aid; US non-farm payroll data in focus for each additional momentum

Translate Request has too much data Parameter name: request Translate Request has too much data Parameter name: request

Back to The Headlines
Friday, February 03, 2012 5:55:27 AM
 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Better major European PMI Services data continues to aid risk appetite; US non-farm payroll data in focus for any additional momentum
***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €1.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €2.0B prior; €488.7B parked in deposit facility vs. €486.4B prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Jan 30th (RUB): T vs. 6.80T prior
- (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) leaves the Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.00%; As expected
- (IE) Ireland Jan NCB Services PMI: 48.3 v 48.4 prior
- (CH) Swiss Q4 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: +0.80 v +0.58 prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec Retail Sales Y/Y: 1.6% v 0.5%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 10.6% v 10.6%e; CPI Core Index Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.1%e
- (TR) Turkey Jan Producer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 13.3% prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Services PMI: 46.1 v 42.1 prior (7th month of sub 50 reading but best level since July 2011)
- (IT) Italy Jan PMI Services: 44.8 v 45.4e - (FR) France Jan Final PMI Services: 52.3 v 51.7e (highest reading since Aug 2011)
- (DE) Germany Jan Final PMI Services: 53.7 v 54.5e, highest level since June 2011
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Final PMI Service: 50.4 v 50.5e; PMI Composite: 50.4 v 50.4e
- (IC) Iceland Jan Preliminary Trade Balance (ISK): 12.0BB v 6.9B prior
- (UK) Jan PMI Services: 56.0 v 53.3e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Retail Sales M/M: -0.4% v +0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.3%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: -1.8% v -1.7%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.6%e

Fixed Income:
- (IN) India sold total INR130B vs. INR130B indicated in 2018, 2021 and 2041 bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2017, 2028 and 2033 Bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- European peripheral yields improve hut region still encountering 'economic pain'
- Greek PSI discussions in 'final, final stage'
- US non-farm payroll data the highlight of NY morning
Equities
FTSE 100 +0.50% at 5825, DAX +0.40% at 6681, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3391, FTSE MIB +0.30% at 16,327, SMI +0.50% at 6095
- European shares rose ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls data due out during the NY morning. While macroeconomic data from both sides of the Atlantic have been strong, further stalling of the Greek PSI deal talks may push the market lower.
- BT [BT.UK} rallied after reporting a rise in EBITDA and an increase in its forecast following lower regulatory charges and cost cuts. In M&A news, Temenos Group [TEMN.CH] rallied after Misys confirmed it was in preliminary talks with company over potential merger
Speakers:
- China Premier Wen reiterated its stance to cooperate with Europe to deal with the crisis but dids not have the ability or intention to 'buy Europe'
- IMF Dep Manager Shinohara commented that the IMF might need $2T to handle the global issues at hand with a general consensus in G20 on extra IMF money but was too early to say how much each nation would contribute. Emerging market share of global economy needs to be reflected in IMF governance structure. On Japan the JGB bonds were stable at this time but needed to watch the correlation with US and European bonds and added that the current European debt crisis could be a lesson for Japan. He believed that Japan should raise the consumption tax to 15% (Note currently level is 5%) and that the BOJ should be prepared to expand monetary stimulus. Lastly he did note that it was hard to greatly influence JPY currency rate through intervention
- Greece Fin Min Venizelos commented that discussions regarding the country's second bailout were 'very difficult'. He noted that the Greek banking sector had suffered from deposit outflows of $16B
- Greece Govt was said to forecast its 2011 budget deficit between 9.1-9.4% of GDP (Note the official target is 9.0% but was rumored to be 9.5-10.0% in the December period)
- Greece Govt spokesperson commented that the main debt swap parameters were ready and that the Troika talks were also in its "final phase"
- Germany Economy Adviser Bofinger (Wisemen) commented that the budget consolidation program designed by the EU/IMF for Greece had made things worse as the program disregard fundamental economic principles.
- German Econ Min Roesler commented in the financial press that close monitoring of Greece's budget reforms were legitimate. The minister again rejected ECB involvement in Greek debt restructuring noting that the current discussion was primarily about private sector involvement. European states and their taxpayers had already made a massive contribution to Greece's restructuring process though their support efforts. He also reiterated rejection of any discussion of expanding Europe's firewall by increasing the capacity of the European Stability Mechanism beyond the planned €500B
- Bank of Portugal's Costa commented that Europe had been at the center of the crisis for the past three years with important steps taken over the last few months despite the initial slow start to the crisis. He noted that market mechanism was needed to ensure that failure was not an option fpr the region. He also noted that the Portuguese banks would meet solvency targets but also had backstop facilities available. He also stated that Europe's fundamentals were stronger than those of the US
- Belgium Budget Min commented that the country's Parliament approved 2012 budget and would commence a review process in February
- Russia Central Bank commented after its rate decision that it saw slow industrial production growth and that the RUB currency appreciation in January would have a disinflationary effect. It did note that the current interest rate corridor was at acceptable level for coming months
- Philippines Central Bank approves revisions in banks reserve requirements. To merge statutory and liquidity reserves into one category and stop interest payments on bank's require reserves
- Russia Econ Min Nabiullina commented that: 2012 inflation rate of 5% was realistic
- EU Steel Industry Association (EUROFER) commented that EU steel demand was seen slightly lower in 2012; steel end-users show resilience amid recession concerns
Currencies:
- Better European Services PMI data coupled with continued optimism that a Greek bailout deal would occur soon boosted risk appetite in the session. Price action was light ahead of the key US non-farm payroll data but the session saw a softer USD and an easing in the peripheral bond yields.
The EUR/USD remained in the upper end of the 1.31 handle but still unable to break above the January highs of 1.3220. Short-covering might be the theme as weekend shorts not desired in the pair in case the Greek PSI agreement does occur. Markets seem posed to sell Euros after the fact.
- The USD/JPY remained in the lower portion of the 76 handle with dealers pondering whether the looming end of fiscal year in March had Japanese corporate springing into its repatriating mode.
Political/ In the Papers:
- The National Institute of Economic Social Research (NIESR) said the UK risks a recession in the first half of the year which is forecasting 2012 GDP at -0.1% compared to the government's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast of +0.7%.
- The financial press commented that any use of CACs collective-action clauses by Greece in order to make the PSI talks appear voluntary carries contagion risk. It could be difficult for Greece to apply CACs to bonds which are not governed by Greek law. Amid the concerns about CACs, Greek bonds, which are governed by international law, have been in more demand than Greek bonds due to Greek law. Note that CACs are used to enable a supermajority of bondholders to agree on a debt restructuring that is legally binding for all debt holders.
- Research conducted by Fitch revealed that the use of risky debt in a key US funding market has returned to pre-crisis 2008 levels, raising concerns the shadow banking system is becoming riskier. Approximately 20% of collateral employed to secure the transactions currently comes from structured finance/repackaged loans. The ratings agency did, however, state that the reason behind the resurgence is difficult to pinpoint. The research by Fitch is based on repo data from the ten largest US money market funds (approximately $90B in repo transactions).
- Former government Economist Jonathan Portes criticized the UK's focus on austerity measures, expecting the unemployment to rise in the UK. He supports a short-term boost to support the economy. Portes previously worked in Gordon Brown's Cabinet Office, and is currently employed as the director of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).
***Looking Ahead***
- 6:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bonds
- 6:10 (UK) DMO to sell Bills
- 6:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e Jan 27th: No est v $293.5B prior
- 7:00 (CA) Canada Jan Net Change in Employment: 22.0Ke v 17.5K prior; Unemployment Rate: 7.5%e v 7.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Revisions: Establishment Employment Survey Annual Revisions
- 8:30 (US) Jan Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: 140Ke v 200K prior; Change in Private Payrolls: 160Ke v 212K prior; Change in Manufacturing Payrolls: +13Ke v +23K prior - 8:30 (US) Jan Unemployment Rate: 8.5%e v 8.5% prior; Underemployment Rate: No est v 15.2% prior; Change in Household Survey: No est v 176 prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Avg Hourly Earning M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.4e v 34.4 prior
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Consumer Confidence: 91.3e v 90.8 prior
- 9:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 10:00 (US) Jan ISM Non-Manufacturing: 53.2e v 52.6 prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec Factory Orders: 1.5%e v 1.8% prior
- 10:00 (US) Possible revision to Durable Goods data
- 12:30 (NL) EU President Van Rompuy with Netherlands PM Rutte
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Producer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior
- 16:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.8%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.7% prior
- (US) Republican Nevada Caucus
Sunday: (FI) Finland Presidential election (Second Round) 
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

The Importance Of Taking Time To Relax

We’ve all bought into the dream.

You know the one. With the attractive pictures. Of you (or me) sipping a pina colada, resting on the beach, while cash pours into our bank accounts because we run an auto-pilot home business on the Internet.

We’ve all realized it isn’t as rosy a dream to live through.

Reality bites. Early. Web entrepreneurs discover that there’s a ton of work to put in first, before that dream of relaxing on the beach comes true. And so, some of them give up and abandon the dream. The rest of us put our head down, nose to the grindstone, and prepare to give it our best shot.

You may enjoy the work you do. Or some parts of it, at least. The rest becomes a “necessary evil”. But hey, someone’s got to do it.

As you grow more successful, outsourcing the bits you no longer enjoy becomes an option. And then, things become much more fun.

It’s fortunate that I found the work I love to do. It’s also no accident. It happened intentionally. In little steps. Saying “No” to one thing after another as I found it wasn’t as much fun or exciting as it first appeared.

But even if most of my ‘working day’ is filled with things I enjoy doing, it’s still necessary to take some time off to relax. To tune out. Turn off. Shut down. And do something different.

As we near the end of every year, we tend to look back on the past 12 months to evaluate and assess what sort of progress we’ve made. Surely you do something of the kind too. It’s only natural. The period of introspection and analysis gives us some valuable feedback on how we’ve been performing, plus a healthy dose of motivation and direction for what we plan to do in the year ahead.

This year, a question I’ve added to my checklist is:

Did you take enough time to relax?

And my answer was a resounding “Yes”.

Here’s why that’s such a good thing.

Running a business, even an online business that’s not too big, can be a roller-coaster ride.

Exciting highs. Heart-breaking lows. And as we juggle responsibilities, fit all we have to do into a crowded and shrinking work day, shifting and adapting to a constantly changing playground, battling the effects of recessionary trends or hungry new competition, we experience stress.

If it keeps on accumulating, we start to feel the ill effects. Sagging enthusiasm. Frequent tiredness. Fading optimism. Bleaker outlook for the future. Even serious health problems.

Relaxing frequently has never been more important. Here are some reasons why.

* De-stress: Functioning under a constant burden of stress is like trying to fly an airplane with the wheels unlocked and the flaps down. There’s more ‘drag’ and greater resistance against which much of your energy is wasted.

* Get Creative: Your best ideas often pop-up when you’re most relaxed and in free thinking mode. While working under adverse conditions may provide an adrenaline surge to meet deadlines, it really isn’t a great way to spur creativity.

* Evaluate and Assess: Relaxing from time to time lets you spend some time reviewing your performance and seeing how well things are going. Do they need adjustment? Is some part out of balance? Are you doing what needs to be done? Should you delegate stuff? These answers are easier to find while you relax.

* Celebrate: Taking time in your hectic schedule to break away from work and rejoice in what you’ve accomplished can be a forceful drive to achieve even more. If you can’t do this daily, shoot for at least once a week. And if you can’t find something big to celebrate, why, revere the small ones!

* Rejuvenate: A short ‘vacation’ from the hustle and bustle of your typical work-day can help ignite the passion and excitement that got you started and fired you up in the early days, when running a business wasn’t so much a chore as a joyous adventure. Capture that spirit, in a small way, through relaxing breaks from the routine.

So you’re convinced that you need to relax. But you’re (very reasonably) concerned about how to go about it. I mean, someone’s got to mind the office, right?

Well, yes. But the nice part about running an Internet based business is that many components of your routine can be handled through a combination of automation and outsourcing.

No two businesses are exactly alike, and you may have unique needs that won’t fit a mold. But if you look hard enough and critically enough at your current processes and systems, you’ll realize there are some which are repetitive enough to automate – and others that are well-documented and streamlined enough to hand over to a helper.

Take inbound email, for instance. You can set up rules in your email client that handle specific messages with standard sequences. A query from a customer can be routed to be automatically dealt with by a software script that replies to the email with a set of frequently asked questions, and a link to use in case the answers aren’t in it.

A complaint or request for assistance can be routed to a help desk manned by outsourced employees or assistants who can respond using pre-defined templates. So even without you in the office to deal with email, most queries get handled promptly.

You can replicate a similar system across various activities and responsibilities that keep you tied to your desk all day. Definitely this takes some planning and action. You will have to analyze your present system, document the way you handle specific issues, and see if they lend themselves to either automation or outsourcing.

Sooner or later, your online business will reach a point where this becomes necessary if you are to scale and grow. Or even if you are to find much needed respite from the daily grind in the midst of managing your successful business.

Being proactive about seeking out and identifying areas for optimization, and then putting systems into place that will leave you out of the picture, can help you take relaxing breaks without compromising the efficiency of your business in any way.