Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar broke below a significant support level, opening the door for further weakness, as the S&P 500 built upon a bullish reversal chart formation. S&P 500 – Prices are testing initial resistance at 1357.40 after completing a bullish inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern with a break above neckline resistance in the 1334.40-41.90 area. A break above this level exposes 1392.10. Broadly speaking, the H&S setup implies a measured objective at 1419.90, conveniently at the year-to-date closing high. The 1334.40-41.90 region has been recast as support.

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CRUDE OIL – Prices continue to tread water between the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 81.07 and the June 7 high at the 87.00 figure. A break higher initially exposes 90.14. Alternatively, a push through support targets the 38.2% expansion at 77.34.
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GOLD – Prices pulled back to retest the 61.8%Fibonacci retracementat 1616.23, a barrier reinforced by former resistance at a falling trend line set from early March. A break below here exposes the 1600/oz figure. Near-term resistance remains at 1637.35, the 76.4%Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49.
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US DOLLAR – Prices broke support in the 10066-70 area marked by a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 38.2% expansion to expose the 61.8% level at 10010. A push through this level targets the 76.4% retracement at 9936. The 10066-70 region has been recast as near-term resistance.
 
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$$US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

13 June 2012 01: 38 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning warns that a significant medium-term top may be taking shape. S & P 500 positioning still seems to call for weakness.
S & P 500 - Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-April, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1292.90, with a break below that exposing 1265.30. Trend line resistance is now at 1329.10, with a break above that targeting upside barriers at 1357.40 and 1392.10.

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CRUDE OIL - Prices took out support at 83.30 the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 23.6% barrier at 81.07. A break beneath this boundary targets the 80.00 figure and the 38.2 Fib at 77.33%. The 14.6% expansion has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that targeting the June 7 at the 87.00 high figure.

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GOLD - Prices broke back above the 1600/oz figure to challenge resistance at 1616.23, the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci tracing and a falling trend line set from early March. A break above this boundary exposed the 76.4% Fib at 1637.35. The 1600 level has been recast as near-term support, with added reinforcement coming in courtesy of the 50% tracking at 1599.17.

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US DOLLAR - Prices continues to look for direction above support in the 10134-43 area, which now appears like the would-be neckline of a Head and Shoulders top chart training. A break lower confirms the setup and initially opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10066. The H & S training would imply a measured downside target at 9945. Near-term resistance lines up at 10220, the 61.8% Fib, with a higher targeting the 76.4% boundary at 10316 breach.

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**S & P 500 the graphical Setup program refers to Bounce as Dollar American Pullback looms

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The Takeaway: A technical positioning S & P 500 is evoking corrective recovery before then that the graphical setup of US Dollar continues to notify a withdrawal in the coming days.
S & P 500 - prices are testing 1273.40 support, 50% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this level exposes the 61.8% Fib to 1258.70. Short term resistance aligns in the 1288 00-1292 areamarked. 90 by October 27, high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Divergence of positive RSI warned against a possible recovery before.
Crude oil - put price in a candlestick hammer over 83.34, the tracing of 76.4% Fibonacci support, referring only to a stimulus is coming. Studies RSI overbooked strongly reinforce the risk of a rebound. Initial resistance aligns in the region of our 90 14-88, 54, marked by the top of swing in early September and the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, a less break initially exposes 80.16.
Gold - prices are now testing resistance to a set of line trend fall of early March, to 1628.65. The barrier is reinforced by the tracing of Fibonacci 76.4% to 1637.35, with a break more expose may 1 to 1671.49. Short-term support aligns to 1616.23, 61.8% Fib, with a break below the opening of the door for a test of the figure of 1600/oz.

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Us DOLLAR - unchanged since yesterday: "prices are showing a Shooting Star candlestick under resistance 10316, the expansion of the 76.4%Fibonacci, coupled with negative divergence in RSI.". Advice for installing a withdrawal may be coming. Initial support aligns to 10220, the level of 61.8%, with a break in the Exhibitor area 10134-43. »

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:: S & P; P 500 Accelerates Lower purpose US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Losses

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints the safe-haven currency may be due for a pullback despite a sharp move lower from the S&P 500.
S&P 500 – Prices are probing through support in the 1288.00-1292.90 areamarked by the October 27 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion to challenge the 50% Fib at 1273.40. A break of the latter boundary exposes the 61.8% expansion at 1258.70. The 1300.00 figure establishes the first layer of major resistance.

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CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing through support at 83.34, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below this boundary exposing 80.16. Highly oversold RSI studies warn that the risk of a corrective rebound may be swelling. Near-term resistance lines up in the 90.14-88.54 area, marked by the early September swing top and the 61.8% Fib.

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GOLD – Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from early March, now at 1630.24. The barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1637.35, with a break higher exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49. Near-term support lines up at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 1600/oz figure.

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US DOLLAR – Prices are showing a dramatic Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 10316, the 76.4%Fibonacci expansion, coupled with negative RSI divergence. The setup hints a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 10220, the 61.8% level, with a break below that exposing the 10134-43 area.

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£ GBPUSD: Rising Wedge Setup Warns of Reversal

Strategy: Flat
GBPUSD is testing the top of a Rising Wedge chart formation, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.6087. The overall setup is broadly indicative of bullish exhaustion ahead of a turn lower but confirmation remains absent and we will remain on the sidelines for now. A break higher exposes the 76.4% Fib at 1.6156. Near-term support lines up at 1.6033, the 50% expansion.

US Dollar Chart Setup Hints Two-Week Pullback May Be Exhausted

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints the pullback witnessed over the past two weeks may have run its course with a bullish reversal starting to take shape.
S&P 500 – Prices put in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at the top of a Rising Wedge chart formation being carved out since November, with negative RSI divergence reinforcing the case for a downside scenario. Initial support lines up at 1408.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion level. Importantly, we’ve seen plenty of false starts to the downside recently so caution is warranted pending firm confirmation on a break of the Wedge formation’s bottom on a daily closing basis. Near-term esistance is now at 1424.20.
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CRUDE OIL – Prices appear to be carving out a descending Triangle chart pattern. The setup generally argues in favor of a turn lower but confirmation is needed on a clear break of support at 104.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Near-term falling trend line resistance lines up at 107.95.
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GOLD – Prices pulled back from resistance at 1691.06, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with sellers facing initial support at 1666.37. A break below this barrier exposes 1641.62. Alternatively, a reversal higher through near-term resistance targets the 38.2% expansion at 1730.16.
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US DOLLAR – Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick above support at 9885, the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and two trend lines, a falling one set from mid-December that previously acted as resistance and a more recent rising one established from the February 8 low. The setup hints the pullback playing out over the past two weeks may have run its course. Initial resistance lines up at 9997, the 23.6% Fib.