$$US Dollar Chart Setup Warns a Top May Be Taking Shape

13 June 2012 01: 38 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning warns that a significant medium-term top may be taking shape. S & P 500 positioning still seems to call for weakness.
S & P 500 - Prices put in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below support-turned-resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-April, hinting a move lower is ahead. Initial support lines up at 1292.90, with a break below that exposing 1265.30. Trend line resistance is now at 1329.10, with a break above that targeting upside barriers at 1357.40 and 1392.10.

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CRUDE OIL - Prices took out support at 83.30 the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, to challenge the 23.6% barrier at 81.07. A break beneath this boundary targets the 80.00 figure and the 38.2 Fib at 77.33%. The 14.6% expansion has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above that targeting the June 7 at the 87.00 high figure.

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GOLD - Prices broke back above the 1600/oz figure to challenge resistance at 1616.23, the intersection of the 61.8% Fibonacci tracing and a falling trend line set from early March. A break above this boundary exposed the 76.4% Fib at 1637.35. The 1600 level has been recast as near-term support, with added reinforcement coming in courtesy of the 50% tracking at 1599.17.

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US DOLLAR - Prices continues to look for direction above support in the 10134-43 area, which now appears like the would-be neckline of a Head and Shoulders top chart training. A break lower confirms the setup and initially opens the door for a challenge of the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion at 10066. The H & S training would imply a measured downside target at 9945. Near-term resistance lines up at 10220, the 61.8% Fib, with a higher targeting the 76.4% boundary at 10316 breach.

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:: S & P; P 500 Accelerates Lower purpose US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Losses

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints the safe-haven currency may be due for a pullback despite a sharp move lower from the S&P 500.
S&P 500 – Prices are probing through support in the 1288.00-1292.90 areamarked by the October 27 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion to challenge the 50% Fib at 1273.40. A break of the latter boundary exposes the 61.8% expansion at 1258.70. The 1300.00 figure establishes the first layer of major resistance.

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CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing through support at 83.34, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below this boundary exposing 80.16. Highly oversold RSI studies warn that the risk of a corrective rebound may be swelling. Near-term resistance lines up in the 90.14-88.54 area, marked by the early September swing top and the 61.8% Fib.

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GOLD – Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from early March, now at 1630.24. The barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1637.35, with a break higher exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49. Near-term support lines up at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 1600/oz figure.

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US DOLLAR – Prices are showing a dramatic Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 10316, the 76.4%Fibonacci expansion, coupled with negative RSI divergence. The setup hints a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 10220, the 61.8% level, with a break below that exposing the 10134-43 area.

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Ilya Spivak, currency 29 may 2012 strategist 03: 41 GMT the takeaway: US Dollar technical positioning indicates prices are likely to get more return before the advance more large building in the past 10 months resumed the momentum.

S & P 500 - prices are testing the resistance of 1331.70 marked by the expansion of Fibonacci 123,6%, with a break exposing the level of 100% to 1347.70. Short term support is figure 1300.00, a psychological barrier, reinforced by the former resistance at the top of a broken drop channel from the top, with a lower break exposing the top swing on 27 October at 1292.90 may 1.

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Crude oil - price formatted candlestick Harami above resistance-turned-support our heading 90.14, 7 September high fence, evoking a corrective bounce may be coming. Positive divergence in RSI strengthens the case for a scenario head. Initial resistance aligns to 92.51, a former support marked by on 16 December, low, with a thrust above this targeting 95.41 (an another former background now acting as resistance to the low February 2).

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Gold - price will continue to consolidate above support in the region of 50 1522-1532 45. Short term trend support-turned-resistance lines to the 1584.56. A break above this limit exposes the figure of 1600/oz, followed by the top of a channel set from late February, now at 1621.73.

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Us DOLLAR - price completed a model Breakaway bearish candlestick under 10241, level 100% expansion of Fibonacci resistance, noting that the subway is coming. Initial support lines up to the area of 10134-41, marked by the expansion of 76.4% and the October 2011 swing high. A less break on a daily basis of closure exposes the 61.8% Fib to 10078.

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-Written by Ilya Spivak, strategist of Dailyfx.com currency

Contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @ IlyaSpivak

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May 29, 2012 03: 41 GMT

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US Dollar Chart Setup Hints Two-Week Pullback May Be Exhausted

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints the pullback witnessed over the past two weeks may have run its course with a bullish reversal starting to take shape.
S&P 500 – Prices put in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern below resistance at the top of a Rising Wedge chart formation being carved out since November, with negative RSI divergence reinforcing the case for a downside scenario. Initial support lines up at 1408.80, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion level. Importantly, we’ve seen plenty of false starts to the downside recently so caution is warranted pending firm confirmation on a break of the Wedge formation’s bottom on a daily closing basis. Near-term esistance is now at 1424.20.
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CRUDE OIL – Prices appear to be carving out a descending Triangle chart pattern. The setup generally argues in favor of a turn lower but confirmation is needed on a clear break of support at 104.75, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Near-term falling trend line resistance lines up at 107.95.
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GOLD – Prices pulled back from resistance at 1691.06, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with sellers facing initial support at 1666.37. A break below this barrier exposes 1641.62. Alternatively, a reversal higher through near-term resistance targets the 38.2% expansion at 1730.16.
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US DOLLAR – Prices put in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick above support at 9885, the confluence of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and two trend lines, a falling one set from mid-December that previously acted as resistance and a more recent rising one established from the February 8 low. The setup hints the pullback playing out over the past two weeks may have run its course. Initial resistance lines up at 9997, the 23.6% Fib.