Dollar climbs in the Canadian economy grew in April at the fastest pace this year

The Takeaway: [the faster growth of Canadian GDP this year in April] > [Pickup in mining and oil and gas activity] > [CAD strengthens]
The Canadian economy grew at a faster pace than expected in April, led by increased activity in the mining and oil and gas extraction sector. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the Canada increased by 0.3% in April, the fastest on the months rate this year, after cutting of 0.1% in March. On an annual basis, GDP expanded 2.0% in April, after growth of 1.7% in each three months previously. Forecasts of the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had called for growth of 0.2 per cent on a month and an annualized 1.8 percent growth rate.
According to a report published by Statistics Canada, mining and oil and gas extraction has rebounded in April after that of temporary stops the difficulties of mining production and led to a slowdown in February and March. Mining and oil and gas extraction increased by 2.7% in April after decline of 2.0% in February and 1.1% in March. Trade in large trade rose 1.2% in April, climbing for the fifth month running. During this time, production decreased by 0.3% and construction decreased by 0.1% in April.
Chart 1-minute USDCAD: 29 June 2012
Graph created with the scope of the market - prepared by Chen Wen - Tzu
Immediately after the output, the stronger Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar as the strongest GDP increases support for a rate hike by the Bank of Canada in the coming months. At the time of this report, the pair USDCAD was trading at C$ 1.0167.

::Pour Euro faible April ventes au détail apportent malaise

05 June 2012 09: 00 GMT Retail sales in the 17-nation Euro bloc fell in April, demonstrating a continuing slump in consumer confidence and pre-vocational concern for the Euro's security. April retail sales dropped a full percentage point on the month, which was more than the 0.1% drop economists had predicted. The yearly drop was 2.5%, also steeper than the expected - 1.1%.
A breakdown of the data showed that Spanish consumers cut spending the most, while German numbers were relatively strong, bolstered by low unemployment numbers. Unemployment in Spain has reached critical peaks recently as the nation struggles to lease out its banking sector. Spanish Budget Minister Montaro today called for Europe's MSS bailout mechanism to directly recapitalize Spain's banks, reflecting Madrid's growing unease with the unstable situation.

The Euro remained oversold in today's trade as the weak spending numbers understandably failed to inspire confidence in the single currency.
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05 June 2012 09: 00 GMT

:::: Eurozone Producer Prices Softer than Expected in April

04 June 2012 07:30 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: Producer prices in the Euro area lower than expected in April -> Lower energy costs, deepening economic slump factor into drop -> Euro price action reserved after yesterday’s weakness
Euro-area producer price inflation slowed for the seventh month in a row in April, the EU stats office said today. The softer than expected number was thought to be caused by declining energy costs and a weakening economic situation, highlighted by European leaders’ inability to resolve the Greek issue.
Declining oil prices have eased the burden on beleaguered European manufacturers, sending producer prices down. Meanwhile, plummeting economic confidence and sky-high unemployment rates have raised speculation that the European Central Bank will ease rates at its next policy meeting.


The Euro traded quietly on Monday, well within the weekend range which saw weakness in risk correlated assets. EURUSD hit a fresh yearly low by 1.2286 over the weekend as investors continued to loose confidence in the single currency.

$ U.S. Dollar Extends Gain after April New Home Sales Exceed Forecast

23 May 2012 15:12 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: U.S New Home Sales Rose 3.3 Percent in April> Recovery in Housing Market Helps Boost Economic Growth > U.S. Dollar Extends Gain
Purchases of new single-family houses in the U.S. bounced back more than forecast in April after hitting four-month low in March. Coupled with rebound in April existing home sales, a surge in new home sales fuels investors’ optimism over recovery in the world’s biggest economy since animprovement in the housing market helps boost consumer expenditure and spur demand in durable goods in coming months.
New home sales climbed 3.3 percent at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 343,000 units,U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Department jointly reported today. The print is well above median projections of 335,000 units from the Bloomberg News Survey. Meanwhile, sales in March were upwardly revised to 332,000 units from 328,000 units. Still, sales of new homes were far from the average 700,000 annual rate that recorded in healthy market.
Recent improvements in labor market and exceptionally low mortgage rate made home more affordable for new buyers in some parts of the country. April new house sales advanced in three of four U.S. regions. The Midwest registered the biggest monthly gain, up 28.2 percent to 50,000. Similarly, sales in the West mounted to 88,000. On the contrary, new house purchases in the South unexpectedly tumbled 10.6 percent to 177,000 units.
The median sales price of new house sold in April was $235,700 while the average sales price was $282,600. Besides, house price index gained 1.8 percent last month compared to 0.3 percent increase in March, Federal Housing Finance Agency said today. House price purchase index rose 0.6 percent in the first quarter in contrast to 0.1 percent decline in the previous quarter.
USDCAD 1-minute Chart: May 23, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Trang Nguyen
The U.S. dollar strengthens versus most of its major peers except its Japanese trading partner about Greece’s debt problems and more rumors on Greek Euro exit. The greenback extends gains against the single currency after the home sales report. TheRelative Strength Indicator crossing below 30- territory during thirty minutes signaled that forex trading crowd was aggressively selling off euro in favor of greenback. At the time this report was written, the euro trades at $1.2582, below 20- and 50- minute exponential moving average lines.

Loonie Remains Strong after Canada's April Inflation Rose More than Forecast

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By Trang Nguyen, 18 May 2012 13: 34 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: Canada Consumer Price Index Rise 0.4 Percent in April > the Inflation within Target Encourages Bank of Canada to Preserve its Low Interest Rate Policy throughout 2012 > CAD Remains Higher

Canada's inflation remained stable at 0.4 percent in April for the fourth straight month as rising price pressures on cars and clothing offset easing pressures on energy and gasoline.

Canada Consumer Price Index is at a current level of 122(2), up 0.4 percent from121.7 in the previous month, the Ottawa - based Statistics Canada reported today. As such, the consumer prices remained stable at 0.4 percent for the fourth straight month. The reading exceeds 0.3 percent gain projected, according to the Bloomberg News survey. Over a year prior, the all items index regained to 2.0 percent from 1.9 percent in March.

The rise in year-to-year cost of energy substantially softened to 1.1 percent in April, following 5.1 percent increase in March and 7.2 percent upsurge in February. Similarly, gasoline prices climbed only 3.3 percent last month compared to 6.6 percent and 8.9 percent in the previous two months. Meanwhile, transportation costs surged 3.2 percent in the twelve months to April while the food prices advanced 2.5 percent.

The Bank of Canada's core index rose 0.4 percent on monthly basis and gained 2.1 percent on yearly basis. Those numbers are consistent with the Bank of Canada's forecast last month that consumer prices would advance average 2 percent this quarter and 2.2 percent in the second half of the year.

USDCAD 1-minute Chart: May 18, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader - Prepared by Trang Nguyen

The Canadian dollar gains ground versus most of its major counterparts ahead of an opening bell in North America trade today. The loonie immediately extended advance in the minutes following the Consumer Price Index report. Canada's April inflation meets its central bank target of 2.0 percent, thus indicating low chance of rate hike in near term. As seen from the 1-minute USDCAD chart above, the currency pair fell about 30 pips from 1.0160 to 1.0140. Nonetheless, the greenback quickly saw a correction after thirty minutes, trades at $1.0166 at the time this report was written, higher than its level before the data release.

-Written by Trang Nguyen, DailyFX Research Team for DailyFX.com

To contact Trang, email tnguyen@dailyfx.com

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18 May 2012 13: 34 GMT

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German Producer Prices Were Higher than Expected in April

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By David Schutz, 18 May 2012 05: 00 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: German producer prices above expected-> Focus remains on political developments-> Euro continues to suffer from risk-off environment

Producer prices climbed in April, coming in above expectations at 0.2% on the month versus 0.3% expected. The yearly number was 2.4%, versus 2.5% expected. Although the numbers were higher than economists had predicted, they represented a drop from March.

Market remained focused on political developments in the Eurozone, with political instability contributing to an intense bout of risk aversion and selling of currencies in favor of the US Dollar.

EURUSD approached the 2012 lows in early European trade as investors continued to sell the single currency.

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18 May 2012 05: 00 GMT

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! Loonie Falls Despite Surge in April Housing Starts To Fastest Pace Since 2007

THE TAKEAWAY: [Canadian housing starts accelerated in April for fifth straight month to fastest pace since September 2007] > [Continuing strength in housing market] > [CAD weakens vs. USD]
Housing starts in Canada unexpectedly accelerated in April for the fifth straight month to its fastest pace since September 2007. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported a large jump to 244,900 housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual pace in April, while March’s figure was revised slightly downwards to 215,200 from 215,600 originally reported. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had called for a slowdown to 204,000 housing starts in April. New starts soared by 28.8 percent in April from a year ago, compared with March’s year-on-year rate of 16.7 percent.
The pickup in housing starts in April was led by a surge in multi-family homes in urban areas, which recorded a 27.4 percent gain to 158,500 new starts. Meanwhile, housing starts in rural areas contracted by 19.0 percent from a month ago, reversing the 10 percent gain in March.
April's housing starts data follows yesterday’s news that the number of residential building permits approved had declined by 1.3 percent in March. This could indicate that we may see slight moderation in the coming months in the recent strength shown by the Canadian housing market, in what some analysts think is a housing bubble.
USDCAD 1-minute Chart: May 8, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Tzu-Wen Chen
Despite the stronger-than-expected print, the Canadian dollar tumbled against the U.S. dollar in the minutes following the data release. The loonie fell as much as 20 pips in the first 15 minutes from pre-announcement levels, and despite a slight retracement, continued to trade weaker at C$0.9972 against the greenback at the time of this report.

::>> Large Miss on U.S. April NonFarm Payroll Hiring Pares Risk Appetite

04 May 2012 13:04 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: [U.S. NFP hiring in April rose less than expected, third month of slowdown; jobless rate falls slightly] > [Concerns U.S. economy could be losing momentum] > [USD gains vs. AUD]
Hiring in the U.S. in April was hugely disappointing, as the rise in nonfarm payrolls (NFP) fell for the third straight month. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today that employees added 115,000 workers to their payrolls in April, down from March’s revised figure of 154,000. March's figure had been revised upwards from its original print of 120,000. The median forecast of 85 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had called for an increase of 160,000. Private payrolls rose by 130,000 in April, down from 166,000 in March, while manufacturing added 16,000 jobs compared to 41,000 jobs a month ago. Employment increased in professional and business services, retail trade and health care, but fell in transportation and warehousing.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell slightly in April to its lowest level since January 2009, declining to 8.1 percent from 8.2 percent the previous month. The drop in jobless rate was due to a continuing decline in the participation rate.
The large miss in NFP fueled concerns that the U.S. economy could be losing momentum, dampening hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring had signaled a turning point for the economic recovery. The NFP print follows on the back of a disappointing rise in employment in April, according to the ADP’s national employment report that was released on Wednesday.
AUDUSD 1-minute Chart: May 4, 2012

"!" Loonie Extends Decline as April Ivey PMI Hits 9-month Low

04 May 2012 14:52 GMT  THE TAKEAWAY:Canada Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Fell to 52.7 in April> Lower Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Prices Levels > CAD Extends Loss vs. Major Peers
Purchasing activity in the Canadian economy expanded at the slowest pace in nine months in April amid weaker employment gain, lower price pressures and drop in supplier deliveries.
The Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) disappointedly fell to 52.7 on a seasonally adjusted basis in April from 63.5 registered in March, the Purchasing Management Association of Canada and the Richard Ivey School of Business jointly reported today. The reading was significantly meager compared to April 2011’s 57.8 and April 2010’s 59.0. The print also falls short of consensus forecast of 61.0 from Bloomberg News survey. Figures over 50 indicate expansion; otherwise values below 50 signify contraction.
Ivey Employment Index for April slightly decreased to 52.2 from March’s 52.7, pointing to weaker employment gain last month. Canada’s unemployment rate fell to 7.2 percent in March from 7.4 percent in February. Yet, analysts have expected the jobless rate to climb again to 7.3 percent last month. Besides, price pressure continued to cool down with the prices index standing at 60.3, the lowest level since August 2010. Persistent strength of the local currency caused additional downward pressure on Canadian inflation.
Ivey Supplier Deliveries Index dropped to 47.4 last month from 48.8 in March, indicating that deliveries were slower than February. In contrast, inventories unexpectedly jumped back a positive territory with the sub-index expanding at 56.8 in April after contracting to 45.7 in the previous month.
USDCAD 1-minute Chart: May 04, 2012

ay 04, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Trang Nguyen

Canadian dollar loses ground versus most of its major peers except higher-yielding currencies (Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar) in the North American morning trade today as dismal U.S. employment report dampens risk appetite. The loonie immediately extends loss versus its major peers in the minutes following the weaker-than-expected Ivey PMI report. As seen from the 1-minute USDCAD chart above, the greenback advanced 30 pips against the loonie, rising to the session high of $C0.9940 from $C0.9910. The Relative Strength Indicator crossing above 70 indicated that market participants have been cutting their loonie holdings in favor of the reserve currency.

$$ US Dollar Remains Strong despite April ISM Non-Manufacturing Decelerates

THE TAKEAWAY:U.S. non-manufacturing activity grew less than expected in April but > Business activity, new orders, employment growth and prices all decelerated > USD remains strong versus major peers
U.S. economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand at a slower pace in April as sale has slightly improved, business conditions has leveled off, and fuel and food continued to be a challenge.
The report released by Non-manufacturing Institute of Supply Management (ISM) report showed that its April non-manufacturing index disappointingly declined to 53.5 percent from 56.0 percent registered in March. The print is well below consensus forecast of 55.3 percent, according to seventy-four economists polled by Bloomberg News survey.
The Business Activity index, which is considered the most important in 10 sub-indexes reported, slipped to 54.6 percent, 4.3 percentage points lower than the 58.9 percent reported in March. This corresponds with survey responses that “business is slowing and projections for the rest of the year are being lowered”. Similarly, the New Orders index fell 5.3 percent to 53.5 percent as a result of contraction in four industries including mining, utilities, health care and public administration.
Employment index, which rose 1 percent to 56.7 percent in March, unexpectedly decline decreased by 2.5 percent to 54.2 percent, pointing to slower pace of job creation. Additionally, the Prices index tumbled 10.3 percent to 53.6 percent, suggesting price increase at a significantly slower rate in April compared to March. Nonetheless, respondents remain concerned about rising fuel costs and the impact on shipping, transportation and petroleum-based product costs.
EURUSD 1-minute Chart: May 3, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Tzu-Wen Chen
The greenback remained strong versus most of its major currency counterparts after the lower-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing report. As seen on the 1-minute EURUSD chart above, the currency pair dropped approximately 30 pips from 1.3180 to 1.3150. At the time this report was written, the euro saw some correction, trades at $1.3160.

FX News April 27, 2012 U.S. Open

09:35 GMT (Global-View.com) April 27- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Friday in North America at .5159, +0.06% from its Thursday close (-4.10% vs. end-2010).

 As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7732, -0.01% (-0.64% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.

Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1740, +0.16% (-14.23% end-2010).

Against crude, it is at 0.4281, -0.35% (-12.23% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

Forex News April 24, 2012 U.S. Open

09: 50 GMT 24 April-The Global-View.com D.O.G (Dollar, oil, Gold) an investor purchasing power index is to open Tuesday in North America in. 5193,-0.05% from its Monday close (-3.48% compared to the end of 2010).

As in the case of key subcomponents, the index of purchasing forex USD is. 7772,-0.04% (-0.12% compared to the end of 2010). Forex is the index value is calculated against best six currencies trade.
Gold, the index of purchasing power of $ is worth. the 1758, +-0.02.tar.bz2% (-13.35% final-2010).
Against oil, is 0.4323,-0.17% (-11.35% of final-2010). Database D.O.G. index is 1,00. It is measured against the levels since the beginning of 1999, as the initial euro (currency).

Forex News April 20, 2012

09: 15 GMT (Global-View.com) 20 April-The Global-View.com D.O.G (Dollar, oil, Gold) an investor purchasing power index is opening Monday in North America in. 5202,-0.12% from its Thursday close (-3.31% compared to the end of 2010).

As in the case of key subcomponents, the index of purchasing forex USD is 7789,-0.07% (+ 0.09% compared to the end of 2010). Forex is the index value is calculated against best six currencies trade.
Gold, the index of purchasing power of $ is worth. the 1755, 0,00% (-13.50% of final-2010).
Against oil, is 0.4334,-0.51% (-11.14% of final-2010). Database D.O.G. index is 1,00. It is measured against the levels since the beginning of 1999, as the initial euro (currency).

>> Forex trading Talk 00: 00 GMT on 16 April 2012

trade Talk: what is moving the markets continuing to Forex Forum key elements: EZ-Commerce, US-retail, Empire PMI.
1Q12 China decreased GDP expectations early on Friday. Year-on-year profit was 8.1% (exp 8.4%). In response, China expanded the team trading for CNY. A transition is taken as a sign does not apply to Beijing about the economy.
U.S. data on Friday had no ipacvt about the economic prospects of the U.S.Political pressures on the BATTLE remain intense. Odds are that the central bank will relax the policy on 27 April.
EURUSD is lower than late Friday. Key medium 20-day is 1.3208.U. s. 10-yr closed Friday at 1.99%, the s-5. The German Bund was 3.8%, the bond markets of the bp-4 are a key Barometer of confidence in the market.
Check the Forex Forum on updated and ongoing discussions of the current themes in the story of continuous discussion of market CHATTER.Forex par vs. 2-yr Note spreads

Some traders focus intently in Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr Note spread (only U.S. 2-yr moves much). Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Forex			#REF!			GBP vs.	20:03
EUR	1.3075	-113	JPY	105.92	-72	JPY	128.34	-74
GBP	1.5843	-120	GBP	82.53	-9	CHF	145.71	29
CHF	0.9197	87	CHF	1.2025	11	CHF vs.
JPY	81.01	15				JPY	88.08	-68

COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Commodity							20:03
CAD	0.9983	38	AUD	1.0367	-63	Gold	1656	-20.55
CNY	6.3035	-46	NZD	0.0000	0	WTI	102.94	-0.68

EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES

Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

Click on Chart to Enlarge

  

Equities							20:03
NIK	9638	113	DAX	6584	-159	DJIA	12880	-102
HSI	20701	374	FTSE	5652	-51	S&P	1373	-14
SSEC	2898	0	SMI	0	0	NAS	3018	-39
ASX	4323	43				TSE	12529	0

* US Dollar Sets Stage for Major Gains in April and Second Quarter |

Quantitative Strategist 07 April 2012 00:45 GMT

Fundamental Forecast for the US Dollar: Bullish

The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) started the month of April and the second quarter with sharp gains against the Euro and other key counterparts, setting the stage for a major reversal through the coming weeks and months of trade. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index would have finished near 8-month highs, but a considerably worse-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls sunk the high-flying Greenback. An important jump in forex market volatility expectations suggests the coming week could be similarly eventful.

Fundamental event risks drops significantly in the days ahead, but volatility may remain elevated all the same. Any especially large surprises in Friday’s US Consumer Price Index inflation figures could drive important US Dollar moves. Yet this past week showed that traders were more than willing to force big EURUSD moves even in the absence of event risk. Just this week we saw a surprisingly hawkish US Federal Reserve send the US Dollar sharply higher, but a disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls result brought the currency back to Earth. Ultimately, do either events represent a true “game-changing” piece of news? Not in this author’s opinion.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from March’s rate decision showed no strong mention of further monetary policy easing, and traders immediately sent US yields and the domestic currency higher. Yet FOMC rhetoric is one matter and what voting members will ultimately decide is another. In other words: the FOMC minutes represent the opinion of a broad range of Regional Fed presidents and other officials. The voting committee is a much smaller group, and on the whole the voting members seem more dovish than the majority.

What of US Nonfarm Payrolls results? Domestic jobs growth literally halved in the month of March and the US Dollar tumbled on the data release. Yet the report wasn’t all bad: the unemployment rate dropped and Average Hourly Earnings grew by more than expected on a year-over-year basis. The result was definitely a disappointment in light of several strong months of data, but we would need to see a more consistent turn lower to claim that March data points to a significant deterioration in labor market conditions.

Markets clearly remain quite sensitive to economic data surprises, but we’re not convinced that the next big US Dollar move will come on any one data release. Instead we wait patiently for a USDOLLAR test of significant 8-month highs and multi-year trendline resistance at 10,134.

The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index looked as though it could break higher, and indeed we called for a major US Dollar turn higher against the Euro on a major shift in forex sentiment. If the Euro strengthens significantly and the USDOLLAR drops below important congestion support at 9,900 we would have been proven wrong in our forecasts. Yet the Greenback strengthened through the first week of the month and quarter. Nothing’s guaranteed, but price action in the beginning of a period often sets the pace for later moves. We like the US Dollar higher and would grow further bullish on a USDOLLAR break above 10,134. - DR