Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Euro bullish weekly reversal outside warrants action
US equity indexes continue to chop up participants (see explanation from 2 weeks ago on the purpose this serves) as the SPY is at its highest since 5/3. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPY ETF shown) has closed the gap at 138.99 (not shown on this chart which was taken earlier). However, the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) is well below its July high and closing in on its short term trendline. In other words, the broad index of small cap stocks is not confirming the new high in the narrow index of the 500 largest companies.
US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
I’m still following the 1995/96 USD model. IF the current market follows the 1995/96 model then expect weakness into mid-August below 8139. 8082 is former resistance and now potential support. Allow for strength early next week above 8307. The 1995/96 market endured a deep retracement (in late July and early August of 1996) that nearly touched the previous swing low (February 1996 low). If that happens this time around, then weakness would extend below 80 but a bottom would form before the February low of 7899.
US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
“The relationship between the US Dollar Index in 1995-1996 and now was pointed out to me by ElliottWave-Forecast. The charts tell the story and it’s uncanny. Not only do the patterns show remarkable similarity in form, but also in time and amplitude. The first number denotes the number of days that the specific leg consumed. The second number in parentheses denotes the number of days since the start of the pattern. The numbers with decimal points are percentage and measure the change from low to high of each leg in the pattern with the number after the slash measuring the net change from the start of the pattern. If the pattern continues (and there is no guarantee that it will of course), then the USD would trade sideways to down throughout July and August before bottoming just above the March low. This should be interesting to follow.”
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has traded to its lowest since 5/11 and the index may slip lower still next week. Focus is a short term internal downward sloping channel and 100% extension of the decline from the July high at 9986. The trendline that extends off of the 2012 lows is at about 9970 next week. A deeper decline into mid-August (as per the 199/96 model) could reach the 100% extension of the decline from the June high at 9940. Allow for corrective strength above 10060 but look lower over the coming weeks.
Euro / US Dollar
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie –The anticipated reversal has materialized in the EURUSD and we can now focus on how far the rally is likely to extend. Elliott wave guidelines state that wave 4 often alternates with wave 2 of the same degree with respect to character. In other words, if wave 2 is sharp and simple then expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Wave 2 (13003-13384) was sharp (retracing 78.6% of wave 1) and simple (3 wave zigzag) thus we should expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Shallow means a 38.2% retracement of wave 3, which comes in at 12554. The former 4th wave of one less degree is also of interest at 12746. The bullish wave count (for at least a few weeks) is bolstered by this week’s key AND outside reversal. This is the first such reversal since the second week of 2011. Near term, I favor buying on a dip early next week between 12175 and 12215.
British Pound / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie –15900 remains a level of interest. To review, “15900 is the 100% extension of the rally from 15267 and 61.8% retracement of the decline from 16300.” After Thursday’s surge, a tag of 15900 may be in the cards earlier than thought. The level intersects channel resistance on Tuesday. An aggressive target of 16105, the 161.8% extension of the rally from 15392 (beginning of wave c?), must also be considered in light of the EURUSD bullish implications. 15550 and 15610 are supports.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – The swings since the 2011 high compose a triangle. The NZDUSD pattern makes it more likely though that the triangle is not bullish but rather forming from the October 2011 low as wave B within an A-B-C decline from the 2011 high. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of wave structure within the advance from the 6/1 low, levels to consider for a top are 10475 (4/27 high), the line that extends off of the 7/5 and 7/19 highs and 10600 (extensions and 2/23 low). The 10600+ idea makes the most sense given the 1995/1996 USD model and EURUSD wave count. Support is 10345/85.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – Quite simply, the 3 wave rally from 7765 leaves 7765 vulnerable. The decline from 8061 appears to be unfolding in an impulsive manner (wave 3 extended). As such, strength should prove corrective and give way to new lows. Resistance is clustered between 7868/80 (former pivots and 38.2% retracement). The bottom of this zone was reached today so it’s time to start looking lower again. Bigger picture, notice that the rally from the 2011 low is also in 3 waves. The implications are for an eventual drop to another all-time low (3 wave moves can also start larger corrections such as triangles, flats, and complex patterns however).
Gold (spot)
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – Gold has cleanly broken through its triangle pattern. I had pegged the action in recent months as a bearish triangle but was proven wrong today with the move above the resistance line and 7/3 high. One must respect the bullish break and respect potential for a move back towards (not necessarily above) the 2012 high of 1790.55. The February low is of interest just above 1700.
Gold breakout in question ahead of the FOMC, NFP
fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral
Gold is this week with the precious support 2.23% end of trading on Friday significantly stronger at the close of trading. Gold has continued to risk a substantial three-day rally violation of important trend line resistance from 6 June before you fresh monthly record $1630 to follow. Although the advance exposes now key targets over the $1670, we remain next week with a flurry of interest rate decisions and the U.S. non-farm payroll pay barrel risk carefully before the big event. The FOMC interest rate decision and key are the employment data centre for gold traders next week investors weigh prospects for future monetary policy. Although it has proposed, the Fed can look, to a further bout of quantitative easing next week announce it is our view that the Central Bank is unlikely that such a measure at these levels, non-farm payroll print especially before Friday's to implement. It is important to note, that diminish the idea are measures, as every time here to lax-the fed-such measures, the wider effect there staged less effective. As such is with growth and inflation data more or less in line with consensus estimates, hard to justify further easing in the current environment. It is more likely that we will see, that the Central Bank to soft scale back its Outlook for monetary policy next leader and we should see the Committee for the remainder of the year pat are. Relevant data starts on Tuesday with June expected to further improve on the part of consumers personal income and expenditure metrics and ends on Friday with the eagerly-awaited pay non-agricultural wage. Consensus estimates call for the addition of 100 K jobs for the month of July, up from a previous run of only 80 K with the unemployment rate, which is expected to hold steady at 8.2%. Search the data in dramatically below expectations for gold market as a participant's view should benefit come to diversify from the US dollar.
From a technical perspective, gold, breaking out of near three month-long triangle passed a milestone this week with prices education before closing the week at $1620. The outbreak is a bullish note on the yellow metal as a daily sees RSI to breach the 70-mark for the first time since March with topside intermediate now supports eyes on the June high of $1640 by the resistance on the all time highs made in September (currently around $1673) goes back 200-day moving average at $1656 and trendline. Provisional support is former triangle resistance and now support the $1600-level. This interpretation would be only a break below not valid per low at $1563. This means that we next week with the FOMC interest rate decisions, ECB, BoE, and the NFP are expected to draw prices in the near future risk remain neutral on gold prices before key event. -MB
Japanese Yen reversal shape in the middle of divergence in policy Outlook on
Grundsätzliche Prognose für japanische Yen: Baisse
Der japanische Yen gegenüber dem U.S.-Gegenstück inmitten der stärker als erwartete BIP Bericht aus der weltweit größten Volkswirtschaft geschwächt, und die USDJPY kann weiterhin den Ausverkauf von Anfang dieses Monats nachvollziehen, wie die Federal Reserve Weg von seiner Lockerung Zyklus bewegt. Obwohl das FOMC allgemein erwartet, beizubehalten, daß ihre aktuelle Politik im August, die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik sein könnte, sollten die Spiel-Wechsler für die Dollar-Yen weiter der Ausschuss sich Spekulationen für eine neue Runde der quantitativen Lockerung zu sprechen.
Wie der Vorbericht 2Q BIP für die USA, die Aussichten für Wachstum und Inflation löst, die Fed weiterhin seine Tauben Ton für die Geldpolitik zu mildern und die Zentralbank kann über den Rest des Jahres ein Wait-and-See-Konzept unterstützen, wie politische Entscheidungsträger ein gedeckten Risiko für einen Double-Dip Rezession sehen. Im Gegensatz dazu, es scheint, als ob die Bank of Japan weiterhin auf seine Lockerung Zyklus als neues Vorstandsmitglied zu beginnen, die Takahide Kiuchi verpflichtet sich wird, neue Formen der monetären Unterstützung betrachten und die größere Abweichung in der Politik-Outlook kann eine Hausse Bewegung in die USDJPY Sporn, wie die US-Notenbank besser positionierten normalisieren Geldpolitik vor die BoJ bleibt. Jenseits der Zinssatz Entscheidung der mit Spannung erwartete US Non-Farm Payrolls-Bericht wird voraussichtlich Beschäftigung erhöht ein weiteres 100 K im Juli die 80 K-Expansion nach vorheriger Monat zeigen, und die schnellere Wachstumsrate Stelle kann letztlich eine sinnvolle Bewegung nach oben für die USDJPY produzieren, wie es Erwartungen für QE3 dämpft. Obwohl wir noch sehen verlaufenden Kanals nach unten in die USDJPY gerade, scheint die Baisse Dynamik als die relative Stärke Index Rebounds vor überverkauft Territorium spitz zulaufenden werden deaktiviert. Als Ergebnis der Dollar-Yen könnte setzen in einem kurzfristigen Boden wie wir in den letzten Tagen des Juli fahren, und das Paar für eine Hausse Breakout grundiert, sieht als die Fed bereitet wechseln Getriebe. -DS
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U.S. dollar: Time to shine as a European problem go everywhere
Fundamental Outlook for US-dollar: bullish
The Dow Jones FXCM dollar index (ticker: USDOLLAR) ended the week slightly lower on a sharp late week selloff, but earlier signs of life suggest that the dollar remains comfortably within its upward trend and to win in the coming weeks.
The US dollar open market Committee of the current tariff rallied strongly after the much-anticipated release of minutes from the US Federal decision, but a sharp Friday sale leaves the greenback slightly lower next week trading launched. A relatively limited schedule of economic event risk probably signals that the USD continues to trade from larger financial market sentiment. This is true in particular for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair and other commodity-linked currencies as $correlations to S P 500 & trade close to record strength. So higher specialized works will depend whether the dollar almost certainly of stock indices and other financial market sentiment the trajectory. Two important issues on international investors heads are pretty clear: the future of the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) and the current European fiscal and financial crises.
On the home front, USD bulls reacted positively to signs that the Fed struck a cautious note over the possibility of more QE in recent FOMC minutes. Greenback weakened considerably by 2009 on the first wave of QE and markets exactly QE2 expected in 2010 decreased. Give the US currency could back some of its recent gains on the future announcement of QE3. Still, the Fed stressed the caution that the next wave is a done deal, and the dollar could remain strong, as the Fed keeps the line on the further expansion of the balance sheet. To force across the Atlantic European fiscal and financial crises continue to significant financial market turbulence and greater risk appetite could be depressed about foreseeable. Credit rating agency of Moody's was to pour the latest gasoline in the fire, as it downgraded sovereign credit rating of Italy. The move itself was not surprising, but the timing of the downs seemed to catch many traders off guard. Italian Government, that 10-year quickly traded in towards the top of their several months reach responds yields as traders on the message. (Bond yields above, if the prices go down)
Instability in the third and fourth largest economies of the eurozone (Italy and Spain, respectively) is probably the most immediate threat to the euro as a currency. We keep a watchful eye on Italian and Spanish Government - returns since Spain is a 10-year craft dangerously close to the ultimate 7 percent in Friday of close. The safe harbor U.S. dollar is accordingly flare-ups in the European market will benefit from any tensions. The last sale starts in Italian and Spanish bonds (increase in income) stress that markets tense despite the recently presented Spanish bailout and others remain growth-oriented European action. Continuing turbulence favoured remaining long 'security' and short 'risk' - long US dollar and short euro.
Our shorter-term bias is clear, and we believe that the recent outbreak of the U.S. dollar may be only the beginning of a larger rally. However, much of dollar Outlook depends on whether S & P keeps the US 500 critical support levels. A breakdown of the financial risk of market sentiment would likely produce the US dollar rally what we have expected that. -DR
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Improve profitability with intraday seasonality
Improve profitability with intraday seasonality
All times are in Eastern Time (GMT-05: 00)
To negotiate successfully, it is important that you know what not to do. A comparison of economic profitability and overall customer satisfaction FXCM account activity (number of accounts that traded this time) (Figure 1) suggests that, to prevent the client during the trading hours of the most active. This idea is of course nonsense. The figures do not explain why traders lose during the hours of operation, but it apparently was an inverse correlation between returns and volatility (more market movements, traders lose more) (Figure 2). The increased volatility of exchange promotes impulsive behavior, and ultimately increases the error committed capital is lost.
Figure 3
Not surprisingly, the extreme intraday price volatility and intraday credit are positively correlated. In fact, there is a tendency to price extremes (highs and lows) and higher volatility at the beginning of each session (Asian, European, North American Meetings) can occur. From 2005 to 2009, the first hour of the trading day (18:00 - Asian Open) produced up to the day almost 8% of the time and the low 6% of the time. In a random environment, it seems an extreme price (high or low) to only 4.17% of the time (1/24 = 4.17%). The period of two hours of 3:00-4:00 (open European) has a high 12% of the time and the low 11% of the time (compared to 8.33% for a random environment). From 9.00 to 11.00 clock 3 hours (U.S. Open and commercial versions), a product of high and low of 20% and 21% of the time (compared to 12.5% for a random environment).
These statistics explain the popularity and relative success of open-end strategies. There are several ways you can increase your chances of success of this information. For example,
Set stops above and below the extreme prices during business hours instead of the range of ups and downs that occur random times.
Only light resistance on rallies, and only during business hours within hours.
Buy only supported if, and only appears during the opening hours in the range of hours.
Buying breakouts aperture range
Sell margins on land opened
The information presented here is not a strategy (determination means) itself, but may increase by improving profitability and positioning elements (risk reduction).
All times are in Eastern Time (GMT-05: 00)
To negotiate successfully, it is important that you know what not to do. A comparison of economic profitability and overall customer satisfaction FXCM account activity (number of accounts that traded this time) (Figure 1) suggests that, to prevent the client during the trading hours of the most active. This idea is of course nonsense. The figures do not explain why traders lose during the hours of operation, but it apparently was an inverse correlation between returns and volatility (more market movements, traders lose more) (Figure 2). The increased volatility of exchange promotes impulsive behavior, and ultimately increases the error committed capital is lost.
Figure 1
Figure 2
The distribution of daily price extremes by hour since 2005 (last 5 years) for the EURUSD is as follows.
Figure 3
Not surprisingly, the extreme intraday price volatility and intraday credit are positively correlated. In fact, there is a tendency to price extremes (highs and lows) and higher volatility at the beginning of each session (Asian, European, North American Meetings) can occur. From 2005 to 2009, the first hour of the trading day (18:00 - Asian Open) produced up to the day almost 8% of the time and the low 6% of the time. In a random environment, it seems an extreme price (high or low) to only 4.17% of the time (1/24 = 4.17%). The period of two hours of 3:00-4:00 (open European) has a high 12% of the time and the low 11% of the time (compared to 8.33% for a random environment). From 9.00 to 11.00 clock 3 hours (U.S. Open and commercial versions), a product of high and low of 20% and 21% of the time (compared to 12.5% for a random environment).
These statistics explain the popularity and relative success of open-end strategies. There are several ways you can increase your chances of success of this information. For example,
Set stops above and below the extreme prices during business hours instead of the range of ups and downs that occur random times.
Only light resistance on rallies, and only during business hours within hours.
Buy only supported if, and only appears during the opening hours in the range of hours.
Buying breakouts aperture range
Sell margins on land opened
The information presented here is not a strategy (determination means) itself, but may increase by improving profitability and positioning elements (risk reduction).
U.S. dollars ends week with risk trends, and facilitate U.S. Ahead of GDP
U.S. dollars ends week with risk trends, and facilitate U.S. Ahead of GDP
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Friday brought a welcome sight for the beleaguered dollar: risk aversion and for sale € of particular importance. The fundamental impulse that got us the FXCM U.S. dollar Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5 percent to break his five-day fall of 155 pips. But here we can not recognize the temporary correction of the real trend. As the dollar index and the S & P 500 - two points of reference end of the spectrum of emotions - the movement is only a fraction has delayed the progress of the past week and month. Configure the likelihood of these standards alone would leave us with a scenario of very low probability to see new highs for several months for the dollar and risk aversion in the near future. On the other hand, we find a spark with a negative EURUSD volatile. Amid the anger, on Friday, financial markets, the euro fell to a minimum of two years from its primary and ended the week again to overtake the entire center (or as they call it a technical operator: The decline of 50 percent Fibonacci) of its historic range. Although the dollar has increased significantly before the month is the construction of 22 new levels, would be an act of the influence that the collapse of the EURUSD is an important step in providing represent us there.
With a little more liquid in the world, threat of radical change, there is an imminent danger to the opening 24 to 48 hours per week on new trends that the business climate in the wake of the continued use of fundamental position of the dollar will be taken. The fear that efforts to stem the crisis of the euro are not (and the situation is, in fact, strengthening and extension) would be a spark to be persuasive with the implied volatility in the foreign exchange market in five years, while the minimum requirements for the structure radically have poorer prognoses. The ball of risk aversion is the first step - the move is as follows. In other words, keep the pulse lighter than light. In the last two months, a consistent trend was difficult to maintain because there were too many regular events that have caused investors' expectations and hopes of further support for the political authorities. With Bernanke reinforce the reluctance of banks to QE3 and EZ-finance showing the extent of their desire to stabilize the region, there is no doubt that also provide relief to the round (distance) in addition to the decisions of the meeting as possible . Meanwhile, the U.S. 2Q GDP reading Thurs Friday buffer and catalyst. According to the hope of the masses, the report is an opportunity to be treated to stop an important step. At the same time, according to the expectations and level of surprise, as an indicator that everything you feel, can override stretching.
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
The euro was the worst performing major currencies Friday ... one day that those responsible for the crisis caused by advanced anti allegedly granting the bank bailout in Spain. The gap was on market expectations that lead to the unexpected event, the owner, in addition to the meeting. For the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area in Spain, the salvation of the country, would have approved. Therefore proposed a new vote, which does not support any further details, to the total amount and time confirmed that no progress. Worse, it now seems that banks and investors share the losses must be subordinated. Do not miss the opportunity, the truth of history, and I learned that the rating agency Egan Jones had undermined lowered to CCC + in Spain and one of the largest of the regional government (Valencia) to ask for financial assistance. For a complete description (rather than a bank) rescue looking inevitable. Thus, the EURUSD looks over the edge.
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
There are two entrances, the economic indicators that should be released next week, and the United Kingdom in the Second Quarter GDP reading is one of them. The book occupies a unique position among the great who are not own relationships. It looks like a gateway for the dissemination of EU crisis has not really jumped the firewall, but soon even power can be cut and ambitious fiscal consolidation effort begins to show stress in economy. In other words, the book is temporarily vital phase. This, however, can be shared by a surprising significant data set.
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
Comparisons are always attracted by his Australian counterpart, considering the New Zealand dollar. However, there is a very important difference between the two in the aspect that most high-yield important rates. The Australian dollar rose against the kiwi, although bond yields (New Zealand to invest real income) and deposit rates at a significant premium to the reputation of Australia. Maybe the market is reminded that should keep interest rates the Bank of New Zealand and maintain a neutral tone. Maybe it will take risk aversion, in order to balance the field.
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
With red in a sea of global equities, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar is no doubt flooded, suffer from the recession. However, in comparison with the many attractions of the capital market to limit the currency of high performance managed by their losses. There are a moderate level of dynamic recovery of the money that the top view, cut to facilitate aggressive course, but will dry quickly. With the CPI data for the 2nd Quarter is expected to fall below the target range this week, perhaps soon to be pessimistic, neutral. Risk trends and a new central bank interest rates should also be considered.
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
When the collapse of confidence in the euro zone crisis by fighting, it's easy to be on the consequences of a major break for the EURUSD and possibly expand on the environmental risks usually connect. However, it is important to connect the dots to connect to Europe's most popular refuge - EURCHF. If the pair of the world's most liquid creates a new case under 1.2135, the speculative pressure and fundamental doubts could also put pressure on the SNB 1.2000 EURCHF ground. You can continue to fight, but policy changes are more likely to happen by force.
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
The range and very difficult to continue to contract in gold, and traders seem to have no problems with it, to see - at least they are not price the options. But CBOE Volatility Index dropped to a few months on two new Friday, pushing less on the risk premium. Collected at a higher market activity by risk trends, the potential to reduce the Fed to represent a serious problem until QE3 for gold.
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Friday brought a welcome sight for the beleaguered dollar: risk aversion and for sale € of particular importance. The fundamental impulse that got us the FXCM U.S. dollar Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5 percent to break his five-day fall of 155 pips. But here we can not recognize the temporary correction of the real trend. As the dollar index and the S & P 500 - two points of reference end of the spectrum of emotions - the movement is only a fraction has delayed the progress of the past week and month. Configure the likelihood of these standards alone would leave us with a scenario of very low probability to see new highs for several months for the dollar and risk aversion in the near future. On the other hand, we find a spark with a negative EURUSD volatile. Amid the anger, on Friday, financial markets, the euro fell to a minimum of two years from its primary and ended the week again to overtake the entire center (or as they call it a technical operator: The decline of 50 percent Fibonacci) of its historic range. Although the dollar has increased significantly before the month is the construction of 22 new levels, would be an act of the influence that the collapse of the EURUSD is an important step in providing represent us there.
With a little more liquid in the world, threat of radical change, there is an imminent danger to the opening 24 to 48 hours per week on new trends that the business climate in the wake of the continued use of fundamental position of the dollar will be taken. The fear that efforts to stem the crisis of the euro are not (and the situation is, in fact, strengthening and extension) would be a spark to be persuasive with the implied volatility in the foreign exchange market in five years, while the minimum requirements for the structure radically have poorer prognoses. The ball of risk aversion is the first step - the move is as follows. In other words, keep the pulse lighter than light. In the last two months, a consistent trend was difficult to maintain because there were too many regular events that have caused investors' expectations and hopes of further support for the political authorities. With Bernanke reinforce the reluctance of banks to QE3 and EZ-finance showing the extent of their desire to stabilize the region, there is no doubt that also provide relief to the round (distance) in addition to the decisions of the meeting as possible . Meanwhile, the U.S. 2Q GDP reading Thurs Friday buffer and catalyst. According to the hope of the masses, the report is an opportunity to be treated to stop an important step. At the same time, according to the expectations and level of surprise, as an indicator that everything you feel, can override stretching.
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
The euro was the worst performing major currencies Friday ... one day that those responsible for the crisis caused by advanced anti allegedly granting the bank bailout in Spain. The gap was on market expectations that lead to the unexpected event, the owner, in addition to the meeting. For the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area in Spain, the salvation of the country, would have approved. Therefore proposed a new vote, which does not support any further details, to the total amount and time confirmed that no progress. Worse, it now seems that banks and investors share the losses must be subordinated. Do not miss the opportunity, the truth of history, and I learned that the rating agency Egan Jones had undermined lowered to CCC + in Spain and one of the largest of the regional government (Valencia) to ask for financial assistance. For a complete description (rather than a bank) rescue looking inevitable. Thus, the EURUSD looks over the edge.
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
There are two entrances, the economic indicators that should be released next week, and the United Kingdom in the Second Quarter GDP reading is one of them. The book occupies a unique position among the great who are not own relationships. It looks like a gateway for the dissemination of EU crisis has not really jumped the firewall, but soon even power can be cut and ambitious fiscal consolidation effort begins to show stress in economy. In other words, the book is temporarily vital phase. This, however, can be shared by a surprising significant data set.
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
Comparisons are always attracted by his Australian counterpart, considering the New Zealand dollar. However, there is a very important difference between the two in the aspect that most high-yield important rates. The Australian dollar rose against the kiwi, although bond yields (New Zealand to invest real income) and deposit rates at a significant premium to the reputation of Australia. Maybe the market is reminded that should keep interest rates the Bank of New Zealand and maintain a neutral tone. Maybe it will take risk aversion, in order to balance the field.
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
With red in a sea of global equities, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar is no doubt flooded, suffer from the recession. However, in comparison with the many attractions of the capital market to limit the currency of high performance managed by their losses. There are a moderate level of dynamic recovery of the money that the top view, cut to facilitate aggressive course, but will dry quickly. With the CPI data for the 2nd Quarter is expected to fall below the target range this week, perhaps soon to be pessimistic, neutral. Risk trends and a new central bank interest rates should also be considered.
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
When the collapse of confidence in the euro zone crisis by fighting, it's easy to be on the consequences of a major break for the EURUSD and possibly expand on the environmental risks usually connect. However, it is important to connect the dots to connect to Europe's most popular refuge - EURCHF. If the pair of the world's most liquid creates a new case under 1.2135, the speculative pressure and fundamental doubts could also put pressure on the SNB 1.2000 EURCHF ground. You can continue to fight, but policy changes are more likely to happen by force.
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
The range and very difficult to continue to contract in gold, and traders seem to have no problems with it, to see - at least they are not price the options. But CBOE Volatility Index dropped to a few months on two new Friday, pushing less on the risk premium. Collected at a higher market activity by risk trends, the potential to reduce the Fed to represent a serious problem until QE3 for gold.
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