Japanese Yen reversal shape in the middle of divergence in policy Outlook on

Grundsätzliche Prognose für japanische Yen: Baisse
Der japanische Yen gegenüber dem U.S.-Gegenstück inmitten der stärker als erwartete BIP Bericht aus der weltweit größten Volkswirtschaft geschwächt, und die USDJPY kann weiterhin den Ausverkauf von Anfang dieses Monats nachvollziehen, wie die Federal Reserve Weg von seiner Lockerung Zyklus bewegt. Obwohl das FOMC allgemein erwartet, beizubehalten, daß ihre aktuelle Politik im August, die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik sein könnte, sollten die Spiel-Wechsler für die Dollar-Yen weiter der Ausschuss sich Spekulationen für eine neue Runde der quantitativen Lockerung zu sprechen.
Wie der Vorbericht 2Q BIP für die USA, die Aussichten für Wachstum und Inflation löst, die Fed weiterhin seine Tauben Ton für die Geldpolitik zu mildern und die Zentralbank kann über den Rest des Jahres ein Wait-and-See-Konzept unterstützen, wie politische Entscheidungsträger ein gedeckten Risiko für einen Double-Dip Rezession sehen. Im Gegensatz dazu, es scheint, als ob die Bank of Japan weiterhin auf seine Lockerung Zyklus als neues Vorstandsmitglied zu beginnen, die Takahide Kiuchi verpflichtet sich wird, neue Formen der monetären Unterstützung betrachten und die größere Abweichung in der Politik-Outlook kann eine Hausse Bewegung in die USDJPY Sporn, wie die US-Notenbank besser positionierten normalisieren Geldpolitik vor die BoJ bleibt. Jenseits der Zinssatz Entscheidung der mit Spannung erwartete US Non-Farm Payrolls-Bericht wird voraussichtlich Beschäftigung erhöht ein weiteres 100 K im Juli die 80 K-Expansion nach vorheriger Monat zeigen, und die schnellere Wachstumsrate Stelle kann letztlich eine sinnvolle Bewegung nach oben für die USDJPY produzieren, wie es Erwartungen für QE3 dämpft. Obwohl wir noch sehen verlaufenden Kanals nach unten in die USDJPY gerade, scheint die Baisse Dynamik als die relative Stärke Index Rebounds vor überverkauft Territorium spitz zulaufenden werden deaktiviert. Als Ergebnis der Dollar-Yen könnte setzen in einem kurzfristigen Boden wie wir in den letzten Tagen des Juli fahren, und das Paar für eine Hausse Breakout grundiert, sieht als die Fed bereitet wechseln Getriebe. -DS
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USD index lower tip on RBA policy poised for correction, AUD to mark

19 July 2012 15: 55 GMT although the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) 0.17% remains lower open, we may look at the rebound of 10.036 speed gain, in the next 24-hours trading as the 30-minute relative strength oversold index territory back jumps. In fact that whole series of gloomy developments from the world's largest economy seems will weigh on market sentiment, and see we perhaps currency traders continue to their risk-taking back when headlines from Europe fears fuel for scale infection. The EU is fighting to curb the increase in borrowing costs in Spain, the continued turmoil in the eurozone can continue to SAP investor confidence and perhaps we provide a flight to safety in the days when the group maintains a reactionary approach in dealing with the debt crisis emerge. Are planned as euro-zone finance ministers, Spain EUR bailout discuss 100B today Germany is likely to vote in favor of the extraordinary action and movement can support risk-taking behavior, as it reduces the ongoing turmoil in the financial system. The development can however fail to encourage a meaningful rally in risk, as the new initiative does little to the cause of the debt crisis, and we should see that the European Central Bank will continue to go on its easing cycle than the Governments under the fixed exchange rate more and more on financial support instructs you. Although the USDOLLAR not up keep up trending channel within the wider trend, we will remain optimistic for our forecast, as long as it keeps the June low (10.025) above. The relative strength index, the upward trend of this year claiming that we should how a rebound get to the end of the week, and we are looking for dips in the greenback to buy, as risk sentiment pointed running seems to be way.
Three of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.57 per cent rally in the Australian dollar, but the bull market dynamics in the AUDUSD might be an end approaches, while the relative strength index overbought territory approaches. The fundamental Outlook for the economy of Australia is generally expected $1T continue to throw a bearish Outlook for the Aussie dollar, such as the Reserve Bank to deliver further interest rate cuts in the coming months and the Central Bank a leader to hit continue to sound for the monetary policy should, as the slowdown in China - Australia's largest trading partner - puts a damper on the prospects for economic growth. In turn, we seek the short-term rally in the AUDUSD fade, and we would have to keep see the pair below the high April (1.0473), to maintain our bearish forecast.

The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report

The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report
Analyst 14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT 

undamentale Prognose für Gold: Baisse
Der kanadische Dollar gewann an Boden gegen Gegenstück U.S. inmitten den Rebound in Gefahr Gefühl kann, doch die Loonie zu behaupten die Bank of Canada einen vorsichtigen Ausblick für die Region Streik sollte nächste Woche. Das BoC Zinssatz Entscheidung das größte Ereignisrisiko für die folgende Woche zeigt, wie Gouverneur Mark Carney sich Spekulationen für höhere Fremdkapitalkosten spricht, aber Marktteilnehmer weiter können, zurück zu skalieren Wetten für eine Zinsanhebung die Staatsschulden-Krise weiterhin eine Bedrohung für die Region darstellen.
Tatsächlich Gouverneur Carney machte zahlreiche Versuche, auf den Datensatz Anstieg der Haushaltsverschuldung zu sprechen, und vielleicht sehen wir die Zentralbank Kopf weiterhin die Idee für eine mögliche Zinserhöhung inmitten Ängste vor einer Immobilienblase zu schweben. Obwohl wir Lichtblicke in der kanadischen Wirtschaft sehen, beschränkten die BoC Gesichter Bereich um das Normalisieren Geldpolitik inmitten der anhaltenden Turbulenzen in Europa. Dadurch können wir die Zentralbank seine warten-and-See-Ansatz in 2013 tragen sehen. In einer Umfrage von Bloomberg News Übernachtung alle der 22 Ökonomen Befragten Prognose BoC Zinssatz 1,00 % halten, während den Marktteilnehmern die Zentralbank Festhalten an seiner warten-and-See-Ansatz über die nächsten 12 Monate laut Credit Suisse finden Sie unter Index Swaps.
Zur gleichen Zeit werden wir genau verfolgt werden den vierteljährlichen geldpolitischen Bericht due out am 18. Juli wie die Zentralbank ihre aktualisierten Prognose für Wachstum und Inflation sowie den Bericht mein Highlight eine geschwächte Outlook für die Region präsentieren wird wie die USA – Kanadas größter Handelspartner – eine Verlangsamung Erholung steht. Wiederum die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik kann dämpfen die Beschwerde mit dem kanadischen Dollar, aber der Verbraucherpreis-Bericht vom Fass für Freitag erneuere Spekulation für höhere Kreditkosten wie die Kern-Rate der Inflation erwartet wird, um im schnellsten Tempo für 2012 zu erweitern. Als die USDCAD weiterhin über die 78.6 % Fibonacci-Retracement aus der 2007 halten, niedrig, die 2009 um hohe 1.0100-10, wir sehen weiterhin, dass das Paar eine kurzfristige Basis um die Kennzahl aufbauen und die technische Perspektiven flößt eine Hausse Voreingenommenheit für die Dollar-Loonie als der relative Stärke Index Pausen heraus von den Abwärtstrend. Wiederum eine ganze Reihe von Leitzinssenkung Kommentare von BoC einen anderen laufen bei 1.0400 auslösen kann, und frische 2012 Höhen des Wechselkurses können wir sehen, wie er sich ein höheres tief im Juli schnitzt. -DS
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14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT

Current policy claims to appreciate Japanese Yen further as BoJ

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota
Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish

The Japanese Yen continued to appreciate against its U.S. counterparts as positive real interest rates in Japan increases the appeal of the low-yielding currency, and we may see the USDJPY track lower in the week ahead should the Bank of Japan preserve its current policy in July. Indeed, the BoJ is widely expected to uphold its zero interest rate policy, and there’s speculation that the central bank will continue to carry out its current asset purchase program as the board raises its outlook for the region.

Indeed, the BoJ raise its fundamental assessment of all the nine regions for the first time since October 2009 while presenting the quarterly Sakura Report and it seems as though the central bank will stick to its wait-and-see approach as economic activity starts picking up. Although Governor Masaaki Shirakawa maintained his pledge to purse ‘powerful monetary easing,’ it seems as though the central bank is becoming more upbeat towards the economy as the recent developments coming out of the world’s third-largest economy raises the prospects for future growth. Meanwhile, the Nikkei newspaper said that the BoJ may scale back on its 6-month operation and expand its shorter-term programs, but the central bank may see scope to inject additional liquidity into the system as the ongoing turmoil in Europe dampens the outlook for the world economy. BoJ Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi held a cautious tone while speaking in Tokyo earlier this week and said that excessive gains in the local currency would dampen private sector activity, and we may see the central bank try to talk down the Yen as it lowers the scope for an export-led recovery.

As the USDJPY threatens the ascending channel carried over from June, a close below the 20-Day SMA (79.56) would instill a bearish outlook for the pair, and the dollar-yen may continue to give back the rebound from 77.65 as the relative strength index fails to maintain the upward trend from the previous month. However, we may see the dollar-yen face sideways price action ahead of the rate decision as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy, and the outcome of the rate decision should generate a clearer picture for the USDJPY amid the mixed views surrounding the BoJ. - DS

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Current policy claims to appreciate Japanese Yen further as BoJ

Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish
The Japanese Yen continued to appreciate against its U.S. counterparts as positive real interest rates in Japan increases the appeal of the low-yielding currency, and we may see the USDJPY track lower in the week ahead should the Bank of Japan preserve its current policy in July. Indeed, the BoJ is widely expected to uphold its zero interest rate policy, and there’s speculation that the central bank will continue to carry out its current asset purchase program as the board raises its outlook for the region.
Indeed, the BoJ raise its fundamental assessment of all the nine regions for the first time since October 2009 while presenting the quarterly Sakura Report and it seems as though the central bank will stick to its wait-and-see approach as economic activity starts picking up. Although Governor Masaaki Shirakawa maintained his pledge to purse ‘powerful monetary easing,’ it seems as though the central bank is becoming more upbeat towards the economy as the recent developments coming out of the world’s third-largest economy raises the prospects for future growth. Meanwhile, the Nikkei newspaper said that the BoJ may scale back on its 6-month operation and expand its shorter-term programs, but the central bank may see scope to inject additional liquidity into the system as the ongoing turmoil in Europe dampens the outlook for the world economy. BoJ Deputy Governor Hirohide Yamaguchi held a cautious tone while speaking in Tokyo earlier this week and said that excessive gains in the local currency would dampen private sector activity, and we may see the central bank try to talk down the Yen as it lowers the scope for an export-led recovery.
As the USDJPY threatens the ascending channel carried over from June, a close below the 20-Day SMA (79.56) would instill a bearish outlook for the pair, and the dollar-yen may continue to give back the rebound from 77.65 as the relative strength index fails to maintain the upward trend from the previous month. However, we may see the dollar-yen face sideways price action ahead of the rate decision as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy, and the outcome of the rate decision should generate a clearer picture for the USDJPY amid the mixed views surrounding the BoJ. - DS

€ Euro Rallies After Draghi Presser Despite No New Policy Actions

Fundamental Headlines
- Canadians Dominate World’s 10 Strongest Banks – Bloomberg
- Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline More than Forecast – Bloomberg
- Mario Draghi’s Introductory Statement – ECB
- ECB Holds Rates, Resisting Calls for Crisis Actions – Reuters
- Solid Demand for Spain Bonds – WSJ
European Session Summary
Higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets traded mostly lower in the overnight, but volatility and price ranges were contained overall as market participants eagerly awaited the outcome of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting midway through the European trading session on Thursday. As Euro-zone stresses have risen in the past few weeks, not in the form of liquidity issues for banks but rather a crisis of confidence, there have been calls for the ECB to introduce more measures to bide time for governments struggling to implement austerity measures. After today’s meeting, it is clear that the Mario Draghi ECB is going to hold out for as long as possible when considering new policy measures, as President Draghi noted that the ECB “didn’t discuss” a rate cut at this month’s meeting.
In terms of President Draghi’s statement, the outlook provided by the ECB was certainly downbeat. According to President Draghi, the ECB sees “downside risks” to the Euro-zone economic outlook, saying that the outlook has become more “uncertain.” On the topic of inflation, the ECB sees price pressures in line with prices broadly balanced over the medium-term horizon. Similarly, the ECB notes that liquidity is abundant in the Euro-zone and that short-term real rates are negative in all Euro-zone nations, further supporting President Draghi’s outlook that inflation will be tethered to the medium-term target at 2 percent.
The big development, or lack thereof, was the ECB’s commentary on what their intentions are with their securities market program (SMP), the facility the central bank uses to intervene in the secondary bond markets to purchase sovereign debt (mainly PIIGS). President Draghi said that the SMP is neither “eternal nor infinite,” and while the program is “still there,” the ECB never “pre-commits.”
Overall, while the Euro rallied across the board following the statement, this could be in part due to the expectations that the ECB might cut rates at this meeting – I find that the “weak” hands were shaken out of the market during the press conference. Instead, with the ECB offering little more substantive support, the increasing tensions between politicians and policymakers is expected to continue, with more governments coming out to offer lip service to the notion that the Euro-zone just needs to grow – as if it were that simple given current market conditions. There’s little contained within the ECB’s statement and the President Draghi presser that would suggest the Euro’s intraday rally is sustainable.
EURUSD 5-min Chart: May 3, 2012

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the press conference, the Euro took back much of its losses, and even rallied up 0.09 percent against the US Dollar overall. The Canadian Dollar remains the strongest currency, with the USDCAD depreciating by 0.13 percent. The Australian and New Zealand Dollars were among the weakest majors, shedding 0.45 percent and 0.97 percent, respectively.
24-Hour Price Action
Key Levels: 13:05 GMT

Thus far, on Thursday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading higher, at 9902.44 at the time this report was written, after opening at 9890.80. The index has traded mostly higher, with the high at 9923.23 and the low at 9887.13.

--$ USD continues to build base before the FOMC, JPY at risk on the BOJ policy

24 April 2012 analyst 15: 55 GMT

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	9921.56	9947.47	9913.22	-0.08	63.39%

 although Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) rest of 0.09 per cent below the opening, we remain optimistic about the reserve currency as it continues to find support around the figure 9 900. While the FOMC interest rate decision takes the center of the stage, the descending triangle can continue to take shape in the next 24 hours of trading, but the greenback appears certainly to build a base in the short-term for a greater displacement as the Fed talks on speculation for a new round of quantitative easing. Indeed, a statement less Dove with a forecast for growth and inflation may eventually trigger an escape distributed on the rise in the index, and we could see the Fed to adopt a slightly hard tone in the underlying growth of price stickiness.
As the USDOLLAR continues to threaten rising trend channel earlier this year, we certainly keep a close eye on strength relative index bearish divergence, and the dollar may come under increased pressure the Fed take additional steps to foster a stronger recovery. Buy program rather than push through an other asset on a large scale, the FOMC may look to extend "Operation Twist" its scheduled expiry in June, but it seems that the Fed will unwind gradually its emergency as Central Bank officials become more optimistic towards the economy of. Indeed, the FOMC member of the Commission, said Janet Yellen the conclusion of "Operation Twist" should not be seen "as a tightening of policy" and went on say that it would only support more easier if the economic recovery is forecast to weaken. In turn, it appears that the Fed will end its cycle of relaxation toward the end of the year, and we could attend the Committee begin to develop a provisional exit strategy, improve growth prospects.
The dollar has gained ground against two of the four elements, led by a decline of 0.13% of the Australian dollar, which was followed by a decrease of 0.01% in Japanese Yen. As the USDJPY remains capped by the ADM of 20 days (81,59), we may see the pair of continuing to follow on the side prior to may, but the difference in monetary policy could trigger a brutal demonstration in the USDJPY as the Bank of the Japan commitments to achieve the objective of 1% of inflation. The BoJ is seeking to do its cycle of relaxation through 2012, the change in the Fed's policy Outlook certainly gave an optimistic forecast for the USDJPY, and it appears that the couple has earned a little higher in April as the strength relative index continues to come from the depression. In turn, we may see the dollar-yen to resume the advance earlier this year, and the couple seems ready to mark high fees through 2012 as the Fed borders Paris for convenience.

Weakness of the USD offers purchase opportunity, vulnerable JPY on the BoJ policy

Currency Analyst 09 April 2012 15:40 GMT   The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.02 percent lower from the open after moving 51 percent of its average true range, and we may see the greenback track sideways over the next 24-hours of trading as market participants remain offline for the Easter holiday. However, as Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak at 19:15 GMT, the fresh batch of comments is likely to fuel increased volatility in the reserve currency, and we may see the central bank head talk down speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program as Fed officials anticipate to see a stronger recovery in 2012. In turn, the recent pullback in the USDOLLAR may provide a buying opportunity for currency traders, and we should see the greenback resume the advance from earlier this year as interest rate expectations pick up.  Indeed, speculation for QE3 resurfaced amid the dismal U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for March, but we may see Mr. Bernanke continue to speak out against more easing as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants are increasing bets for a rate hike over the next 12-months, and the shift in the policy outlook reinforces a bullish outlook for the USD as the Fed looks to conclude its easing cycle in 2012. As the index maintains the upward trending channel from earlier this year, we are still looking for another run at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement around 10,118, but the slew of central bank rhetoric on tap for this week may bring about a bullish breakout in the index as Fed officials continue to take note of the more robust recovery.
Two of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 0.20 percent decline in the Euro, while the Japanese Yen gained another 0.38 percent ahead of the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Although the BoJ is widely expected to maintain its current policy in April, the central bank may show an increased willingness to expand monetary policy further as it pledges to meet the 1 percent target for inflation. As the BoJ continues to carry out its easing cycle, the divergence in the policy outlook should prop up the USDJPY, and we may see the pair resume the advance from earlier this year as the fundamental outlook for the world’s third-largest economy remains weak.