Euro bullish weekly reversal outside warrants action

US equity indexes continue to chop up participants (see explanation from 2 weeks ago on the purpose this serves) as the SPY is at its highest since 5/3. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPY ETF shown) has closed the gap at 138.99 (not shown on this chart which was taken earlier). However, the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) is well below its July high and closing in on its short term trendline. In other words, the broad index of small cap stocks is not confirming the new high in the narrow index of the 500 largest companies.

US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Weekly


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

I’m still following the 1995/96 USD model. IF the current market follows the 1995/96 model then expect weakness into mid-August below 8139. 8082 is former resistance and now potential support. Allow for strength early next week above 8307. The 1995/96 market endured a deep retracement (in late July and early August of 1996) that nearly touched the previous swing low (February 1996 low). If that happens this time around, then weakness would extend below 80 but a bottom would form before the February low of 7899.
US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Daily


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

“The relationship between the US Dollar Index in 1995-1996 and now was pointed out to me by ElliottWave-Forecast. The charts tell the story and it’s uncanny. Not only do the patterns show remarkable similarity in form, but also in time and amplitude. The first number denotes the number of days that the specific leg consumed. The second number in parentheses denotes the number of days since the start of the pattern. The numbers with decimal points are percentage and measure the change from low to high of each leg in the pattern with the number after the slash measuring the net change from the start of the pattern. If the pattern continues (and there is no guarantee that it will of course), then the USD would trade sideways to down throughout July and August before bottoming just above the March low. This should be interesting to follow.”

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)
Weekly


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has traded to its lowest since 5/11 and the index may slip lower still next week. Focus is a short term internal downward sloping channel and 100% extension of the decline from the July high at 9986. The trendline that extends off of the 2012 lows is at about 9970 next week. A deeper decline into mid-August (as per the 199/96 model) could reach the 100% extension of the decline from the June high at 9940. Allow for corrective strength above 10060 but look lower over the coming weeks.
Euro / US Dollar


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie –The anticipated reversal has materialized in the EURUSD and we can now focus on how far the rally is likely to extend. Elliott wave guidelines state that wave 4 often alternates with wave 2 of the same degree with respect to character. In other words, if wave 2 is sharp and simple then expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Wave 2 (13003-13384) was sharp (retracing 78.6% of wave 1) and simple (3 wave zigzag) thus we should expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Shallow means a 38.2% retracement of wave 3, which comes in at 12554. The former 4th wave of one less degree is also of interest at 12746. The bullish wave count (for at least a few weeks) is bolstered by this week’s key AND outside reversal. This is the first such reversal since the second week of 2011. Near term, I favor buying on a dip early next week between 12175 and 12215.
British Pound / US Dollar
Weekly


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie –15900 remains a level of interest. To review, “15900 is the 100% extension of the rally from 15267 and 61.8% retracement of the decline from 16300.” After Thursday’s surge, a tag of 15900 may be in the cards earlier than thought. The level intersects channel resistance on Tuesday. An aggressive target of 16105, the 161.8% extension of the rally from 15392 (beginning of wave c?), must also be considered in light of the EURUSD bullish implications. 15550 and 15610 are supports.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Weekly

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – The swings since the 2011 high compose a triangle. The NZDUSD pattern makes it more likely though that the triangle is not bullish but rather forming from the October 2011 low as wave B within an A-B-C decline from the 2011 high. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of wave structure within the advance from the 6/1 low, levels to consider for a top are 10475 (4/27 high), the line that extends off of the 7/5 and 7/19 highs and 10600 (extensions and 2/23 low). The 10600+ idea makes the most sense given the 1995/1996 USD model and EURUSD wave count. Support is 10345/85.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Daily Bars 



Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Quite simply, the 3 wave rally from 7765 leaves 7765 vulnerable. The decline from 8061 appears to be unfolding in an impulsive manner (wave 3 extended). As such, strength should prove corrective and give way to new lows. Resistance is clustered between 7868/80 (former pivots and 38.2% retracement). The bottom of this zone was reached today so it’s time to start looking lower again. Bigger picture, notice that the rally from the 2011 low is also in 3 waves. The implications are for an eventual drop to another all-time low (3 wave moves can also start larger corrections such as triangles, flats, and complex patterns however).
Gold (spot)
Daily Bars


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Jamie – Gold has cleanly broken through its triangle pattern. I had pegged the action in recent months as a bearish triangle but was proven wrong today with the move above the resistance line and 7/3 high. One must respect the bullish break and respect potential for a move back towards (not necessarily above) the 2012 high of 1790.55. The February low is of interest just above 1700.

Dollar,Breakout,Beginning

Dollar,Breakout,Beginning

12 July 2012 15:30 GMT

 Retail FX trading crowds are now nearly their most aggressively net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen since the USDJPY traded near record-lows in February. The sharp jump in crowd buying underlines the fact that most believe the Japanese Yen is unlikely to challenge fresh highs (USDJPY lows). The Japanese Yen nonetheless stands to strengthen as the Bank of Japan withholds further monetary policy stimulus and markets turn risk-averse.
The retail trading crowd is often ‘right’ at the turns; the SSI showed traders were their most net-long USDJPY on record as the pair bottomed in February. Yet current extremes could just as easily be a precursor for continued declines, and we remain bearish the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen on such one-sided sentiment.
How do we interpret and trade with the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

$ USD Bullish Trend Ahead Of EU Summit, Reversal JPY Carving On Tap

26 June 2012 15:55 GMT


Although the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.17 percent lower from the open, we’re seeing the index bounce off of former support around 10,134, and the greenback may continue to retrace the decline from earlier this month as it breaks out of the bearish trend. Indeed, an inverse head-and-shoulders appears to be taking shape on the 30-minute chart, but we will need a move above the 10,200 figure for the reversal pattern to pan out. As the EU Summit in Brussels takes center stage, the headlines coming out of the euro-area is likely to drive market volatility over the remainder of the week, but the meeting may do little to restore investor confidence as the group struggles to meet on common ground.
Although the EU is making a greater push for fiscal integration, German policy makers continued to strike down the idea of sharing all liabilities across the region, and we may see a growing rift within the group as the governments operating the fixed-exchange rate system continue to move in their own interest. As a result, dismal developments coming out of Brussels may spark another flight to safety, and we may see the USDOLLAR make another run at the 10,300 as it carves out a higher low in June. As the relative strength index breaks out of the downward trend carried over from May, we should see the ascending channel from earlier this year continue to take shape, and we may see the greenback mark fresh 2012 highs in the coming days as it benefits from safe-haven flows.

Three of the four components rallied against the greenback, led by a 0.25 percent advance in the Japanese Yen, and the low-yielding currency may continue to appreciate against its U.S. counterpart as the government increases its effort to balance its public finances. Indeed, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda is pushing for a sales-tax increase for the first time in 15-years, and the move certainly increases the appeal of the Yen as the debt crisis continues to drag on investor confidence. However, the ongoing strength in the local currency may put increased pressure on the Bank of Japan to intervene in the foreign exchange market, and we should see the central bank continue to embark on its easing cycle as policy makers aim to encourage an export-led recovery. As the USDJPY breaks out of the downward trending channel from March, we should see the rebound from 77.65 gather pace, and the pair appears to be carving out a bullish trend amid the series of higher highs paired with higher lows.

Euro Short-term outlook more optimistic than the eye can see

22nd June 2012 05.45 GMT clock
The resumption of aggressive risk from Thursday's price action was understandable. After all, this is very good news for investors to hold. In fact, the rally in risk assets in recent weeks about the pricing of the scene that the maximum realization of true positive developments. Curiously, it is our belief that more control of risk in the trade, which was since the beginning of June to see, could continue.
While recognizing the state of the global economy is far from rosy, were increasingly convinced that the crisis as a whole (commitment to support the economy at all costs because of aggressive forms of monetary stimulus and budget), a seemingly unlimited governmental proponomics could actually help us overcome the crisis, without any great disadvantage. See the U.S. economy. This was the first economy of the global recession, but the strong commitment of the U.S. government and Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into the system seems to work even enter. Investor confidence was well supported as the performance of U.S. equities occupied, while the actual economic data are signs of improvement.
Many other countries have adopted a similar approach, and this strategy has spread like wildfire, with a commitment to support coordinated the global economy at all costs. It can be a confirmation of this fact better than the recent G20 meeting, which was very explicit on the subject. For now, the real trick to a leadership role in Europe will fall into line and get up to the plate. In our opinion, Europe has not been so aggressive with this approach, as it should, and all that is needed is a formal plan to address the crisis in the head. However, a leading presence in the region failed, and the Achilles heel of the region is that we are not compatible with a country. However, we argue that at least in the short term, this curve, where the ball, when markets are in a good way for European leadership was surprised to be able to really accelerate in the last minute.
The next EU summit will be very important, and we expect a result that surprised the market and provide a new understanding of trust in the region. On the other hand, is quite common for me to take an optimistic view. Many of you know, I was very bearish and pessimistic in recent years. But now that everyone wonders about the collapse of the euro, it is logical to expect a rally. I feel refreshed after two portfolio managers in television yesterday calling for more aggressive acceleration, and low in the euro area immediately.
Trading Markets is one of the most difficult challenges, such as the use of the market in a sense, all the weaknesses of each operator in one form or another to find. And with any and all queuing up to an additional risk compromise, I think this might be a bit of a surprise.
My opinion is that we will soon see the opening of a very aggressive plan of state and government of the euro area, which is finally taken by investors and open the door to an aggressive round of trade negotiations in the risk next few days. Maybe then I'll fade into the path of darkness and look back for a chance to rally. For me, a movement in the euro area seems logical to 1.3000, and then I was happy to sell aggressively.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR / USD: While our overall picture remains very pessimistic, so it is possible to short-term upside, before a new record is requested below. Despite the recent decline, the market still looks short-term constructive above 1.2440. A closer look on the weekly chart also shows the couple begins another week of high and low peak. However, a break above 1.2750 again is needed now to accelerate gains. Below 1.2440 negates.

USD / JPY: Some very constructive price action in recent market sessions with the cleaning of some critical short-term resistance of 79.80, then break the psychological barrier of 80.00 again. This now opens the door to a possible medium-term higher low back instead of 77.65 before the extension to the next big time and peak in 2012 of 84.20.

GBP / USD: Despite some upward correction intraday setbacks since the beginning of June is still alive, and we still see room for additional header to 1.5780 and 1.6000 in the coming days. Ultimately, any further decline is expected to be well supported around 1.5500, while only back under 1.5450 would threaten vision.

USD / CHF: Even if we get a larger bullish on this pair, with the market, setting back to parity in the coming weeks, it seems that there is room for further short-term declines , while the lowest level since the peak market trends early June Ultimately, a break above 0.9660 is needed to return to end the current bear market and opens the door for recovery upward further. Until then, the risk of a deep decline towards 0.9200 to 0.9300 range.

Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar broke below a significant support level, opening the door for further weakness, as the S&P 500 built upon a bullish reversal chart formation. S&P 500 – Prices are testing initial resistance at 1357.40 after completing a bullish inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern with a break above neckline resistance in the 1334.40-41.90 area. A break above this level exposes 1392.10. Broadly speaking, the H&S setup implies a measured objective at 1419.90, conveniently at the year-to-date closing high. The 1334.40-41.90 region has been recast as support.

 Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices continue to tread water between the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 81.07 and the June 7 high at the 87.00 figure. A break higher initially exposes 90.14. Alternatively, a push through support targets the 38.2% expansion at 77.34.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices pulled back to retest the 61.8%Fibonacci retracementat 1616.23, a barrier reinforced by former resistance at a falling trend line set from early March. A break below here exposes the 1600/oz figure. Near-term resistance remains at 1637.35, the 76.4%Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices broke support in the 10066-70 area marked by a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 38.2% expansion to expose the 61.8% level at 10010. A push through this level targets the 76.4% retracement at 9936. The 10066-70 region has been recast as near-term resistance.
 
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

$¥ USDJPY 8015 Serves as Bullish Pivot

Every day bars


"After several days to the tracing of 61.8% from the rally of the lowest in February, the USDJPY rallied impressive and is again claiming with average and 20 days trendline resistance." Over 8055 would break the series of lower highs since the top focus and shift from March to 8180. Yet, I like jumping the gun to fire on long with a stop under 7900. "The pivotal distributed upward may be moved to 8015.
LEVELS: 7830 7900 7970 8015 8060 8150

-$ USD Eyes Fresh Highs Ahead Of Correction, JPY Preserves Bullish Trend

28 May 2012 15:55 GMT

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	10180.13	10183.25	10148.44	-0.33	70.80%

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.33 percent lower from the open after moving 71 percent of its average true range, but we may see the dollar carve out a fresh high going into June as the upward trending channel from earlier this month continues to take shape. Indeed, the topside break in the 30-minute relative strength index dampens the likelihood of seeing a short-term correction in the index, and the bullish sentiment underlining the reserve currency may gather pace as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. However, we may see the greenback consolidate over the coming days as market participants look forward to the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report due out on Friday, and the report may ultimately trigger a short-term correction in the greenback should it foster speculation for additional monetary support.

As the USDOLLAR comes off of the upper bounds of the ascending range, the daily chart continues to foreshadow a short-term correction, and we will keep a close eye on the relative strength index as it fails to maintain the upward trend from the beginning of the month. As the oscillator comes back from overbought territory, a move below 70 could pave the way a larger move to the downside, but we will look for a higher low in the index as it maintains the upward trending channel from earlier this year. In turn, we may see the dollar revert back to the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,949, but it’s imperative that the greenback holds above the 9,900 figure to maintain a bullish outlook for the USD. In turn, we will be looking to buy dips as we head into June, and the upward trend in the reserve currency may continue to gather pace in the second-half of the year as the Federal Reserve moves away from its easing cycle.

 The greenback weakened across the board on Monday, led by a 0.85 percent advance in the Australian dollar, while the Japanese Yen climbed 0.29 as the Bank of Japan talked down speculation for additional asset purchases. Indeed, the policy meeting minutes reiterated that the BoJ is not monetize government debt as market participants look for more easing, and it seems as though the central bank will carry its current policy into the second-half of the year even as Governor Masaaki Shirakawa pledges to pursue ‘powerful’ monetary easing. As the USDJPY threatens the downward trend carried over from March, we are looking for a close above the 20-Day SMA (79.75) to see a meaningful rebound in the exchange rate, and we will be closely watching the 79.00 figure as it appears to be holding up as support.

$ Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows

24 May 2012 02:44 GMT  Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows Euro Drops Across the Board as Market Realizes EU Summit Impotent British Pound and Gilt Yields Hit Despite the BoE’s Steady 8-1 Vote Japanese Yen Continues its Climb after BoJ Avoids Stimulus Clash Australian Dollar Hits Fresh 6 Month Low Against Dollar as Rate, Risk Extend Decline New Zealand Keeping Pace with Aussie’s Pain as Its Own Rate Outlook Tumbles Gold Marks Epic Bounce Off of 10-Month Support Level Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows
There was a distinct difference in performance between basic risk trends and the US dollar. Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly tested a new low for the year, it quickly recovered most of its lost ground. In contrast, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index advanced for a second consecutive day to fresh 16-month highs. This conviction was echoed by EURUSD’s slide below 1.2625 (bringing it to its lowest level since July 2010), AUDUSD holding onto six month lows and NZDUSD breaking a multi-year rising trend. Risk aversion keeps this currency on its bullish bearing, but the rebound in US equities can pose a problem. As a liquidity haven, we need aggressive risk aversion to keep the dollar moving.
Euro Drops Across the Board as Market Realizes EU Summit Impotent
The euro dropped against everyone of its major counterparts this past trading session – ultimate safe havens all the way up to high-risk carry currencies. Considering the market was doused in risk aversion through much of the day, it is clear that there was a greater degree of fear surrounding this particular currency than any other. That concern is the deterioration in the financial and economic health of the region it represents. Heading into Wednesday’s session, there was hope that the EU summit that was held in Brussels would provide some meaningful support for Greece and the broader region. That said, every one of the points that could have contributed to recovery were rejected: no Eurozone bonds, no growth measures, no fiscal treaty, no rescue program boosts, but a promise to help Greece if it stays the course. That said, this was disappointing but perhaps not surprising. We need an active catalyst. Perhaps the upcoming PMI readings can play that role.
British Pound and Gilt Yields Hit Despite the BoE’s Steady 8-1 Vote
It is perhaps difficult to appreciate the deteriorating fundamental position of the sterling as we have strong underlying risk trends that are leading high-yield currencies and the euro to greater deleveraging than the pound’s own slide. When there is a wholesale shift away from risky positioning, the sterling outperformers its carry currency counterparts (Australian and New Zealand dollars) as well as its more fundamentally-troubled neighbor (the euro). If we were able to remove these factors, we would better be able to see the struggling that the pound is facing. In the past session, we were reminded of the notable shift that the UK interest rate forecast has taken recently. Not long ago, the BoE was seen as taken a distinctive neutral shift in its policy stance after MPC member Posen withdrew his vote for further bond purchases. In the minutes of the May meeting, we find the vote was once again 8-1 (Posen held neutral). That said, the 10-year Gilt yield is a record low 1.77 percent.
Japanese Yen Continues its Climb after BoJ Avoids Stimulus Clash
There was little chance that policy officials at the Japanese central bank could alter the path of rising yen – that was something that was realized in dramatic form at the previous rate decision in which a 10 trillion yen increase in the asset purchase program roused little reaction from the currency. Perhaps recognizing the diminished utility of increasing its balance sheet with no meaningful payoff for exchange rate impact, the BoJ decided to hold its asset purchases at 40 trillion yen and credit program at 30 trillion. There was some level of concern that a fight would be mounted as the realization that nothing was coming through lead USDJPY (a balanced risk pair) to retreat from 80 soon after. As the European session rolled into US trading hours, the unencumbered yen was picked up by the strong risk aversion sense.
Australian Dollar Hits Fresh 6 Month Low Against Dollar as Rate, Risk Extend Decline
In a distinctly risk-off environment , the Australian dollar was clearly one of the most at-risk currencies amongst the majors. Indeed, the investment currency suffered a sizable hit against its safe haven / funding counterparts. Both AUDUSD and AUDJPY moved to trade at six month lows. However, where capital markets would make the effort to claw back some of their losses through the second half of the New York session, the high-yield Australian dollar would limit its ambitions. We could attribute some of the struggle to the World Bank’s disappointing outlook for Chinese GDP (for which they made distinct connections to Australian GDP through exports), but the more influential element to this bearish drive was deteriorating rate expectations. The outlook for Australian rates has been dovish / bearish for some time, but they grew even more painful this past session. While the probability of a 50bp cut in June eased modestly, the 12-month forecast hit a new 5-month low.
New Zealand Keeping Pace with Aussie’s Pain as Its Own Rate Outlook Tumbles
In the downshift in risk trends through the US session, the New Zealand dollar suffered a critical technical break against the greenback – closing below a rising trendline that has represented the backbone of the NZDUSD’s general drift higher over the past few years. With the overall slump in investor sentiment this past session, this particular decline comes as no surprise. Alternatively, the kiwi’s persistent slide against its Australian counterpart is a little more unusual. While the Australian rate expectations are deteriorating quickly and its sensitivity to risk trends is unsurpassed; the New Zealand currency continues to lose ground. Recent arguments to be made are the renewed expectations for China to bolster growth – considering general risk trends are more finely balanced here. Yet, more likely, the notable shift in rate expectations from neutral to a forecast for tentative marks a bigger shift in tone than perhaps yields suggest. The market is now pricing in a 77 percent probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the next RBNZ meeting and 42 bps worth of reductions over the coming 12 months.
Gold Marks Epic Bounce Off of 10-Month Support Level
Where Tuesday’s about face for gold was a distinct shift in momentum, the real bearish drive for gold happened on Wednesday morning. By mid-New York session, the precious metal was down by as much as 2.2 percent. Had the market close on the low, that would have represented the biggest drop for the market since February 29. However, we didn’t end with this downleg. After the initial decline – leveraged by the US dollar’s own gains – traders were met with the same zone of support between 1535 and 1525 that led to remarkable recoveries three times over the past year (September 26, December 29 and May 16). In other words, extending the larger bearish trend would require a significant upgrade in conviction. From the fundamental backdrop, risk aversion and anti-Euro sentiment is high, while inflation pressures are visibly easing. Under these conditions, the dollar boosts its appeal; but we clearly haven’t crossed the threshold as the metal jumped sharply from its support.
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ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
CBAHIA House Affordability (1Q)
German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)
German Private Consumption (1Q)
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German Construction Investment (1Q)
German Government Spending (1Q)
Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (APR)
French PMI Manufacturing (MAY P)
German PMI Manufacturing (MAY A)
Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY A)
German IFO - Expectations (MAY)
German IFO - Business Climate (MAY)
German IFO - Current Assessment (MAY)
BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (APR)
Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 19)
National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
ECB's Draghi, Visco Speak on Euro Economy
Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy
ECB's Joerg Asmussen Speaks on the Debt Crisis
Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy
|| US Treasury to Sell $29 Bln 7yr Notes
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
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CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
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U.S. Consumer Credit, Greek Bailout Hopes Hint at Bullish Market

Stocks are up in Europe, with the FTSE 100 slightly in the green and the MSCI All Country World Index  up a third of a percent as the market reverses its attitude towards Greece thanks to progress on a bailout plan with creditors. Investors may also be looking to reverse bearish moves in European markets earlier this week, as hope replaces gloom, prompting BlackRock mogul Larry Fink to encourage investors to go one hundred percent into equities.

Stocks may also be up thanks to last afternoon’s revelation that consumer credit rose by $19.3 billion in December, a surprising reverse of the deleveraging trend that had suggested that consumer consumption would remain sluggish as unemployment stayed high and wages stagnated in America. Analysts had expected an increase of around $7.7 billion, so the results are more than double expectations. The greater use of credit may hint at greater consumer confidence, which should translate into higher spending and a recovery to the retail and financial sectors.
Revolving credit rose by $2.76 billion in a sign that consumers were more willing to use credit cards to fund their holiday shopping. The news comes after some credit companies reported lower charge-off rates in recent months.
Read more

OpenBook Traders Remain Bullish on Wall Street Despite Greek Concerns

February 6th, 9:22 pm
 Wall Street was faced with a struggle today Greece cast a shadow of gloom over the U.S. session. Markets retreated today with the Dow down 41 points, the Nasdaq down 8 points and the S&P 500 down 3 points at the time of writing this report. Traders on OpenBook are primarily long on SPX500 with average limits at 1,350 and stops at 1,320.
Despite the bearish sentiment on Wall Street, OpenBook traders are primarily bullish on SPX500. OpenBook trader drangie was busy this morning scalping short profits on the SPX500 in the European session. The trader switched to becoming a SPX500 bull last week and closed several profitable long positions on the SPX500 with gains between 2% and 5%. The traders started buying SPX500 near 1,336 and closed near 1,342. The trader has 2 copiers and 35 followers so far on OpenBook.
With the U.S. economic calendar light on events, markets are taking their cue from developments in Europe. Talks between Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papdemos and leaders of the three opposition parties were delayed until Tuesday. Greece has to come to an agreement on new austerity measures before it gets the second bailout package. French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel said that time is running out for Greece to reach an agreement with the troika. The troika refers to European Union, IMF and ECB.
Federal Reserve policy maker James Bullard said that the U.S. housing market has already hit bottom. Bullard who is a hawk is against the current Fed policy of keeping interest rates low until late 2014. Bullard believes that low interest rates hurt savers and older Americans who rely on interest payments.
OpenBook trader aaronsw was also bullish on the SPX500 and used the dip in the markets to add to his SPX500 long exposure. Looking at this trader’s open positions, the trade is targeting SPX500 to reach 1,373. The trader has closed closed several long SPX500 positions in the past few days with gains as high as 48.33%. The trader allocates significant portion of their portfolio (about 34%) to trading SPX500. Besides SPX500, the trader also trades Oil and FRA40. The trader has been watching the $100 per barrel price level on Oil. The trader has been going long as oil prices fall below $100 and going short as oil prices trade above $100 a barrel.

OpenBook Traders Bullish on SPX500 after ADP Jobs Report

 The private sector ADP report showed that 170,000 jobs were created in the month of January. This completes two years of job gains mostly led by small businesses and the services sector. Overall the labor market is on the path of recovery according to economists who see the creation of jobs and the drop in unemployment claims going hand in hand to ease the labor crisis. The ADP report showed that 95,000 jobs were created at small businesses, medium sized businesses added 72,000 jobs and large businesses added 3,000 jobs. This Friday, we will see release of the government Non Farm Payroll report for January.

OpenBook trader marcongzh has been busy this morning trading on the SPX500. This trader who trades frequently on the SPX500, closed several trades with gains between 16% and 25%. The trader bought SPX500 near 1,319 and closed them as the SPX500 rose towards 1,325. OpenBook trader David25420 also closed some profitable trades on the indices. This trader closed positions on the DJ30 with gains of 49% and FRA40 with 16% gains respectively.

In a separate report, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 54.1% from 53.1% in December. This was the third month of increase in the index and the fastest pace seen in the past eight months. The new orders index which indicates future orders rose to 57.6%. Executives at manufacturing facilities are optimistic that business conditions will improve in 2012. Wall Street rallied on the positive economic reports with the Dow up 138 points, the Nasdaq up 32 points and the S&P 500 up 14 points. Traders on OpenBook are primarily bullish on the S&P 500 (SPX500) today with average limits at 1,340 and stops at 1,300.

OpenBook trader Snoobl from Germany had a successful day today when he closed 20 trades on EURUSD with gains. This trader used a combination of his own trading skills and CopyTrader to achieve this winning feat today. The trader bought EURUSD near 1.3110 as he identified that as the support after the EURUSD fail to break that on previous three occasions. The trader closed his positions near 1.3195. The trade had initially set his TP to 1.3202 but moved the TP closer as he saw the EURUSD fail to gain momentum as it neared upper resistance near 1.3200. This week the trader has gained 52.9% and is up 110% in the last thirty days. This trader shows a lot of promise.

 

OpenBook Traders Bullish on SPX500 after ADP Jobs Report

The private sector ADP report showed that 170,000 jobs were created in the month of January. This completes two years of job gains mostly led by small businesses and the services sector. Overall the labor market is on the path of recovery according to economists who see the creation of jobs and the drop in unemployment claims going hand in hand to ease the labor crisis. The ADP report showed that 95,000 jobs were created at small businesses, medium sized businesses added 72,000 jobs and large businesses added 3,000 jobs. This Friday, we will see release of the government Non Farm Payroll report for January.

OpenBook trader marcongzh has been busy this morning trading on the SPX500. This trader who trades frequently on the SPX500, closed several trades with gains between 16% and 25%. The trader bought SPX500 near 1,319 and closed them as the SPX500 rose towards 1,325. OpenBook trader David25420 also closed some profitable trades on the indices. This trader closed positions on the DJ30 with gains of 49% and FRA40 with 16% gains respectively.

In a separate report, the ISM manufacturing index rose to 54.1% from 53.1% in December. This was the third month of increase in the index and the fastest pace seen in the past eight months. The new orders index which indicates future orders rose to 57.6%. Executives at manufacturing facilities are optimistic that business conditions will improve in 2012. Wall Street rallied on the positive economic reports with the Dow up 138 points, the Nasdaq up 32 points and the S&P 500 up 14 points. Traders on OpenBook are primarily bullish on the S&P 500 (SPX500) today with average limits at 1,340 and stops at 1,300.

OpenBook trader Snoobl from Germany had a successful day today when he closed 20 trades on EURUSD with gains. This trader used a combination of his own trading skills and CopyTrader to achieve this winning feat today. The trader bought EURUSD near 1.3110 as he identified that as the support after the EURUSD fail to break that on previous three occasions. The trader closed his positions near 1.3195. The trade had initially set his TP to 1.3202 but moved the TP closer as he saw the EURUSD fail to gain momentum as it neared upper resistance near 1.3200. This week the trader has gained 52.9% and is up 110% in the last thirty days. This trader shows a lot of promise.

 

Pound Sterling Traders Bullish Resolve Holds Despite Mixed Data

Early this morning, the GfK Group released its key consumer confidence index for January, which is a gauge of confidence levels for the U.K.’s economic activity among the 2000 respondents. The reading improved to -29 from -33, beating analysts’ forecast of -32 yet far off the May “peak” of -21. The managing director of the group which conducts the survey on behalf of the E.U. Commission said that the improvement was somewhat surprising given the decline in U.K. GDP and the strong possibility that the economy is on the verge of another recession. However, he points to a decline in inflation and the recent lowering of energy prices as offering some hope to consumers.

OpenBook guru PPVijayakumar who is almost exclusively a EUR/GBP trader with 99.4% of his portfolio allocation, has consistently and successfully been able to scalp both sides of the pair and his statistics show that he is on track to post a 202% gain for the past six months. With 99.1% of all of his trades being positive, it’s understandable why this guru is regularly atop the leader board. Currently, the EUR/GBP pair is trading at .8373 and a bullish sentiment dominates on OpenBook.

Santosh is another guru who also primarily trades the Pound Sterling, though against the U.S. Dollar, with more than 64% of his portfolio allocated to the GBP/USD pair. He has several long positions opening the pair but would need a good bull rally to see them turn a profit. Nonetheless, nearly 99% of trades result in a profit for this trader who, in response to a question from a follower, admits that he avoids a fixed formula or strategy, but rather adapts his approach to the market’s behavior. Moreover, he doesn’t trade with more than 10% of his equity and uses a hedging strategy to maintain equity.

The GBP/USD pair is currently higher at 1.5751, but off the intra-day high of 1.5774; news from the Bank of England that net lending to individuals failed to meet expectations may put pressure on the pair. The report showed that lending rose from £0.6 Billion to £0.7 Billion while analysts surveyed had predicted an increase to £0.8 Billion. The Bank also reported that December’s mortgage approvals remained flat against expectations of an increase to 54,000.

 

Pound Sterling Traders Bullish Resolve Holds Despite Mixed Data

Early this morning, the GfK Group released its key consumer confidence index for January, which is a gauge of confidence levels for the U.K.’s economic activity among the 2000 respondents. The reading improved to -29 from -33, beating analysts’ forecast of -32 yet far off the May “peak” of -21. The managing director of the group which conducts the survey on behalf of the E.U. Commission said that the improvement was somewhat surprising given the decline in U.K. GDP and the strong possibility that the economy is on the verge of another recession. However, he points to a decline in inflation and the recent lowering of energy prices as offering some hope to consumers.
OpenBook guru PPVijayakumar who is almost exclusively a EUR/GBP trader with 99.4% of his portfolio allocation, has consistently and successfully been able to scalp both sides of the pair and his statistics show that he is on track to post a 202% gain for the past six months. With 99.1% of all of his trades being positive, it’s understandable why this guru is regularly atop the leader board. Currently, the EUR/GBP pair is trading at .8373 and a bullish sentiment dominates on OpenBook.
Santosh is another guru who also primarily trades the Pound Sterling, though against the U.S. Dollar, with more than 64% of his portfolio allocated to the GBP/USD pair. He has several long positions opening the pair but would need a good bull rally to see them turn a profit. Nonetheless, nearly 99% of trades result in a profit for this trader who, in response to a question from a follower, admits that he avoids a fixed formula or strategy, but rather adapts his approach to the market’s behavior. Moreover, he doesn’t trade with more than 10% of his equity and uses a hedging strategy to maintain equity.
The GBP/USD pair is currently higher at 1.5751, but off the intra-day high of 1.5774; news from the Bank of England that net lending to individuals failed to meet expectations may put pressure on the pair. The report showed that lending rose from £0.6 Billion to £0.7 Billion while analysts surveyed had predicted an increase to £0.8 Billion. The Bank also reported that December’s mortgage approvals remained flat against expectations of an increase to 54,000.