USD index lower tip on RBA policy poised for correction, AUD to mark

19 July 2012 15: 55 GMT although the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) 0.17% remains lower open, we may look at the rebound of 10.036 speed gain, in the next 24-hours trading as the 30-minute relative strength oversold index territory back jumps. In fact that whole series of gloomy developments from the world's largest economy seems will weigh on market sentiment, and see we perhaps currency traders continue to their risk-taking back when headlines from Europe fears fuel for scale infection. The EU is fighting to curb the increase in borrowing costs in Spain, the continued turmoil in the eurozone can continue to SAP investor confidence and perhaps we provide a flight to safety in the days when the group maintains a reactionary approach in dealing with the debt crisis emerge. Are planned as euro-zone finance ministers, Spain EUR bailout discuss 100B today Germany is likely to vote in favor of the extraordinary action and movement can support risk-taking behavior, as it reduces the ongoing turmoil in the financial system. The development can however fail to encourage a meaningful rally in risk, as the new initiative does little to the cause of the debt crisis, and we should see that the European Central Bank will continue to go on its easing cycle than the Governments under the fixed exchange rate more and more on financial support instructs you. Although the USDOLLAR not up keep up trending channel within the wider trend, we will remain optimistic for our forecast, as long as it keeps the June low (10.025) above. The relative strength index, the upward trend of this year claiming that we should how a rebound get to the end of the week, and we are looking for dips in the greenback to buy, as risk sentiment pointed running seems to be way.
Three of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.57 per cent rally in the Australian dollar, but the bull market dynamics in the AUDUSD might be an end approaches, while the relative strength index overbought territory approaches. The fundamental Outlook for the economy of Australia is generally expected $1T continue to throw a bearish Outlook for the Aussie dollar, such as the Reserve Bank to deliver further interest rate cuts in the coming months and the Central Bank a leader to hit continue to sound for the monetary policy should, as the slowdown in China - Australia's largest trading partner - puts a damper on the prospects for economic growth. In turn, we seek the short-term rally in the AUDUSD fade, and we would have to keep see the pair below the high April (1.0473), to maintain our bearish forecast.

:: The Euro Strength Most Likely as US Dollar Corrects Lower

June 21, 2012 11: 18 GMT

Retail forex traders net-short the Euro against the U.S. Dollar remain (ticker: USDOLLAR) as the pair of senior multi-week fresh presses. Use us most often as a denier indicator trade; If the commercial crowds are short EURUSD, we prefer to be long.
In view of the same unilateral manner professional trade sense, we believe that the Euro may continue to correct higher against the refuge currencies. Major traders have been placed at the worst of the results of the elections to the Greek criticism, and the victory of the pro-bailout party meant the clear dangers failed to materialize.
Currencies tend to have their ups and downs at the beginning and end of the month. These trends seasonal forex suggest the EURUSD can trade higher until June and may resume its broader tendency from the beginning in July.
How to interpret and exchange with the SSI? Watch a FXCM Expo presentation which explains the SSI.

Euro Looks Lower As Spain Struggles To Tap Markets, ECB In Focus

Discussion points
Euro: The Spain struggles to tap markets upcoming auction, ECB in Focus of Sterling: trends-risk of lead in holiday to the United Kingdom of the Canadian Dollar, the price: BoC rate is 1.00%, sees the risk of risk Euro Inflation: Spain struggles to tap markets upcoming auction, ECB in Focus
The Euro dropped to a low during the night of 1.2408 as Cristobal Montero of the Spain Treasury Minister, warned that the region was a "problem of access to markets", and the growing for the contagion threat continues to cast a bearish for the EURUSD perspective, as argued by makers European approach reactionary in the fight against the debt crisis. Well held in the emergency environment G7 bien tenue à le milieu urgence du G7 du négociations d' du tenue du du négociations d' négociations d' négociations d' negotiations of d' du du tenue tenue the unrest increased in Europe, the Group has refrained from releasing a joint statement, but pledged to cooperate in an effort reduce the fears surrounding the global economy.
In Spain, tap is expected à le milieu ci the auction and the long-term debt on Thursday, the auction of the bond can be painted a perspective of the region, and we could see the EU to increase its efforts to buy more time than to discuss a potential group plans However, the push for greater integration may not materialize as the Germany continues to express his opposition to broaden the scope of European stability mechanism, and we could attend the European Central Bank showed a greater willingness to ease monetary policy more than European officials strive to meet on common ground. The EURUSD is not movement to put in a fence over the ADM, 10 days (1.2476), the pair seems ready to extend the reported decline of the previous month, and we will be keeping a close eye on the strength relative index that he continues to flirt with the oversold territory. As the ECB interest rate decision arrives in the home, the fresh batch of rhetoric of the Central Bank should set the tone for the rest of the week, but we could see the EURUSD to strengthen in the next 24 hours, of the trade as the market players weigh the prospects for future policy.
Pound sterling: is oversold, capped by the ADM, 10 days
Despite the United Kingdom vacations, the pound sterling has rebounded overnight minimum of 1.5321, and we closely monitor developments as the GBPUSD oversold remains key technical. As the pound sterling-dollar continues to stand on 50.0% of 2009 low Fibonacci allows to high around 1.5270 figure, we must see the RSI back over 30 push to see a correction to form, and we will monitor for a break and a fence over the ADM, 10 days (1.5529) to see a significant gesture on the back. However, we may see the struggle of the pair to return top former support around 1.5600 could come new resistance, and we may see prices depending on the range of the Exchange face action in the short term that the Bank of England continues to approve approach of wait and see.
Canadian dollar: BoC to 1.00% guard rate, sees the risk of emerging Inflation
The decision of the Bank of the sustained Canada of the dollar interest rate as the Central Bank continued to talk about speculation for a rate hike, but it seems that the BoC is another attempt to discourage the record rise in debt domestic as it is likely to derail the economic recovery. Indeed, the Central Bank saw risk emerging of the target of 2% for inflation on the back of the lower energy costs and the BoC is certainly about limited to embark on a series of rate hikes as the persistent strength in local currency, dampens growth prospects. Although USDCAD remains surachat, the IHR should get off to see the pair back the net advance of the previous month, and the recent strength of the Canadian dollar can be short-lived as the theft of security continues to gather pace.
For more information to follow...

:: S & P; P 500 Accelerates Lower purpose US Dollar Chart Setup Warns of Losses

THE TAKEAWAY: US Dollar technical positioning hints the safe-haven currency may be due for a pullback despite a sharp move lower from the S&P 500.
S&P 500 – Prices are probing through support in the 1288.00-1292.90 areamarked by the October 27 high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion to challenge the 50% Fib at 1273.40. A break of the latter boundary exposes the 61.8% expansion at 1258.70. The 1300.00 figure establishes the first layer of major resistance.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing through support at 83.34, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with a break below this boundary exposing 80.16. Highly oversold RSI studies warn that the risk of a corrective rebound may be swelling. Near-term resistance lines up in the 90.14-88.54 area, marked by the early September swing top and the 61.8% Fib.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from early March, now at 1630.24. The barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1637.35, with a break higher exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49. Near-term support lines up at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 1600/oz figure.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are showing a dramatic Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 10316, the 76.4%Fibonacci expansion, coupled with negative RSI divergence. The setup hints a pullback may be ahead. Initial support lines up at 10220, the 61.8% level, with a break below that exposing the 10134-43 area.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

$$ US Dollar to Correct Broadly Lower Before Larger Advance Resumes

fundamental forecasts for the US Dollar: Rally
The Dollar finished trade week on a negative note after a new high of 18 months against high counterparts as a dismally disappointing we sent report employment tumbling prices. The logic of the bond of conduct seemed to Centre the growing possibility of a third round of reserve Federal quantitative easing (there) to the collapse, us recovery. This would probably dilute the greenback, producing losses similar to those observed in the wake of the previous efforts of QE the Central Bank. However, this logic seems misguided.
Us borrowing costs find us their way less well without intervention of the Fed. The benchmark 10-year Treasury obligations performance dropped to a record low 1.45% last week that the euro area sovereign risk fears led capital seeking refuge in us debt. After adjustment for inflation, the performance actually is-0. 60 percent, investors sense will actually pay Government bps 60 per year to care for their money. With the situation in Europe hardly on the road to healing, yields are likely to remain under pressure for some time, means that the marginal benefit of a program there would be very low at best and in arguing against expansion, the Fed balance sheet.
In this spirit, performance of the Dollar risk towards little more than profit-taking. The catalyst mainly brutal rally of the Dollar in recent weeks has rooted in fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone growing risk aversion. The slump in the sense has been aggravated by the testimony of mounting of wind for world economic growth of a recession in Europe and deep slowdown in Asia. While none of these concerns have been truly resolved, the fresh stock of negativity to drive continued sales in space of risky assets is executed may be dry, opening the door to a reflection.
Summit of the leaders of the EU concluded this month said unequivocally that policy makers intended to remain on the sidelines until the Greece installed a coherent Government and would then only with that which takes the reins to establish a way forward. Indeed, this is the fundamental concern vis à vis of Europe to hold until the second attempt at a general election is made in two weeks. During this time, the landscape of economic growth is desperate but thematic step unfamiliar to investors, given the large lines of performance trends in engines key outputs of the globe have been well established for some time.
On the front of national data, a relatively calm folder waiting for you in the coming week. The printing and survey service-sector ISM book the amount of economic conditions Fed Beige regional high level only on the calendar elements, nor likely to provide much result that traders do not have the price already. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to testify before a joint session of Congress, traders will pay certainly strong attention to clues there. Property that the head of the Central Bank is likely to remain committed - relay one stimulus additional message familiar, always "on the table" but "reckless" if it means sacrificing price stability - it seems sure to recognize that turn the recent decline in the data. Markets can accept once more that as a fairly moderate to sell the greenback, amplifying the withdrawal until the Greece concerns recessional restart uptrend toward the beginning of the following week. -EAST

>>> Lower Eurozone Producer Prices Fail to Stimulate Euro Volatility

THE TAKEAWAY: PPI numbers come in lower than expected -> high energy prices continue to affect producers -> Euro trades within tight range
Producer price inflation in the 17-nation Eurozone increased less than expected in March, representing the sixth consecutive monthly drop in the gauge. The month-on-month number came in at 0.6% vs. the 0.5% predicted by economists, while the yearly number was 3.3% versus the expected 3.4%. The numbers indicated that rising production costs continue to affect European producers.
European companies are expected to continue downsizing operations and layoffs and rising energy costs combine with low economic growth, creating a stagnant economic situation.

 The Euro traded within a tight range against the US Dollar after selling off yesterday on a batch of unfortunate manufacturing data from across Europe.

- Asian market update: Lower Aussie CPI raises the argument

-AUSTRALIA (AU) Q1 CONSUMER prices (CPI) Q/P: 0,1% V 0.6% E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 2.2% E (lowest since Q3 2009) >-Japan (JP) MAR company services price INDEX Y/Y:-0.3% V-0.6% E (3-month high)
-China (CN) MAR the Conference Board leading economic index M/M: 0.8% V 1.0% before (3-month low)
MAR-New Zealand (NZ), NET MIGRATION: 130.0 v-300 BEFORE
-Credit card-Mar, New Zealand (NZ), m/m: 0.3% v 0.4% before; y/y: 5.2% v 4.0% against (3-month high)
-(AR) Argentina Mar budget balances (ARS): + 849 m v + 1.3 (B) y/y
*** Markets snapshot (from 04: 30GMT) ***
-Charts for-0.9%
-S and P/ASX + 0.1%
-Kospi-0.7%
-Taiwan Taiex-0.2%
-Singapore Straits Times + 0.3%
-Shanghai composite-1.4%
-Hang Seng-0.3%
-Jun S and P Futures + 0.2% of 1,365
-Gold + 0.3% in June, $ 1,637/oz
-June Crude-0.1% in the $ 102.97
* ** Review Top headlines ***
-Lower than expected inflation in Australia signs the banks possible actions at the next meeting in May. Analysts are speculating that it may be a reduction in June and may. y/y 1.6% inflation was the lowest level since Q3 2009 RBA trimmed means also arrived in at the lowest level in 5 quarters at 0.3% q/q. AUD/USD initially fell more than 60 pips $ 1.0260 before testing to $ 1.0250 fell AUD/CAD on low 5-month during the GBP/AUD rose to high 5-month $ 1.57. Australia 10-yr yield fell to record lows in the vicinity of 3.64%. ASX S and P has increased in the message and the expected cut in May during the Shanghai composite fell more than 1%. Australia Treasurer Swan says inflation core is contained and the bottom of the destination range; No risk for deflation. He said also that the lower the CPI is not a sign of slower growth. USD/JPY reduced to ¥ 80.87, while Japan 5-yr yield test 0.265%, the lowest level since October 2010. The Bank of Japan (battle of) will be meeting decision of the rate at the end of this week. Copper rose above 0.5% to $ 3.64 when silver gained 0.7% to $ 30.73. Political developments in the EU, the current French President Sarkozy coming in the second candidate of Socialists from Sunday's pre-elections and the threat of the Netherlands losing its AAA rating weighed on the markets. ECB'S Nowotny noted that the ECB bond purchase programme (SMP) is currently in "sleep mode" new targeted measures may be carried out when needed. No chance of a wider programme of bonds; Germany would not confirm such measures. Furthermore, they believed that the second LTRO began to be felt in the real economy.
*** Speakers/Geopolitical/in the press ***
-(CN) China State administration of foreign exchange (safe) repeats will ensure financial national security and combating cash flow hot
-South Korea (KR) 2013 budget to focus on welfare, education and the creation of jobs; The aim is to restore budgetary equilibrium and achieve sustainable growth-the Korean press
-(CN) China Bank Regulator (CBRC): 2012 will be a difficult year; The debt crisis in Europe, difficult to solve in the short term, the risk of a recession the euro zone is growing
-Furukawa Min Econ Japan (JP): repeats the hopes that the battle will continue to deal with the powerful monetary easing and appropriate action
-(CN) PBoC sites Zhou: China may first relax the control of borrowing costs and widen the scope of the deposit rate as part of a policy change in the financial industry-Caijing Magazine
* * The * Actions * **
-NCM.AU: Reports Q3 production gold 532.2 k oz v 579 K oz q/q; Copper 18.1 K tonnes 18.2 k tonnes of q/q
-WES.AU: Reports Q3 Rev A $ 7.85b v 7 $ 9be
-SPT.AU: Pacific Equity Partners makes second bid for Spotless, values the company at $ 745 M v and $ 711 M in front of the
-6665. JP: Toshiba pulls out of race for Japan's Elpida-press Japan
-1733. HK: Chalco taking 29.9% stake in Winsway cash HK $ 2.39b
-THE FBU.NZ: CEO: on the path to meet the forecast; NZ housing market showing signs of improvement, Australia is weak and is facing further deterioration
*** US action ***
-WFT: Reports Q1 $ 0.25 (adj) v $ 0.28; Rev. $ 3. No. 60b v $ 3.6be; -1.5% after hours
-TXN: Reports Q1 $ 0.22 (incl. $ 0,10 a fee to connect the NSM) v $ 0.29e, R $ 3.12b v $ 3.1be; + 3.7% after hours >-NFLX: Reports Q1-$ 0.08 v-. 27 e $ 0, $ 870 M v $ 867Me; -16.6% after hours
-USTREN: Reports Q1 $ 0.45 (adj) v $ 0.41e, R $ 1.27b v $ 1.2be; + 2.2% after hours
-CNI: Reports Q1 (C) $ 1.75 v C $ 1.02e. 3be v C $ 2 Rev C $ 2.34b; + 0.1% after hours
*** Fixed income/goods/Forex ***
-JGB: MoF Japan sells ¥ 1.09t 20-yr JGBs 1.7% (1,8% before); on the cover: Latimer x v 3.26 x before
-CN) PBoC offers CNY 9.0 B 28-day repo 2,80% (6 consecutive, offering the same rates); Do not sell the BOM
-(CN) China Stats Office: China pig prices mid April-2, 1%
-(AU) Australia Bureau of statistics: bulk storage of wheat grains 21.3 m tonnes of the end of March to 9% from the end of February

Euro Relief Rally To Set Lower Top, Sterling Eyes Fresh Highs

12 April 2012 13:35 GMT  Talking Points

Euro: ECB Softens Dovish Tone, Italy Bond Auction Disappoints British Pound: Poised For Fresh Yearly High As Upward Trend Gathers Pace U.S. Dollar: Index Eyes 9,900 For Support, Fed Officials In Focus Euro:ECB Softens Dovish Tone, Italy Bond Auction Disappoints

The Euro climbed to a fresh weekly high of 1.3175 as the European Central Bank pledged to ‘address upside risks to medium-term price stability in a firm and timely manner,’ but we are likely to see the Governing Council take additional steps to shore up the ailing economy as the sovereign debt crisis continues to heighten the risk for a prolonged recession. Indeed, Italy sold EUR 2.88B in 3-year bonds versus the EUR 3.00B target, while the government offered 3.89% on its debt, which compares to the 2.76% yield seen in March.

Meanwhile, ECB board member Joerg Asmussen argued that commercial banks in Ireland need to ‘substantial’ reduce their reliance on central bank funding, and it seems as though the Governing Council is looking to preserve a wait-and-see approach throughout the remainder of the year as it maintains its one and only mandate to ensure price stability. However, the ECB may have little choice but to expand policy further as the debt crisis continues to drag on investor confidence, and the threat for contagion may bring about another wave of non-standard measures as the governments operating under the single currency become increasingly reliant on monetary support. As there appears to be a descending triangle in the EURUSD, we will maintain our bearish outlook for the pair, and we may see the pair carve out another lower top ahead of May as the relative strength index maintains the downward trend from earlier this year. In turn, the short-term rebound in the exchange rate may provide a selling opportunity for FX traders, and we should see 1.3000 ultimately give way as the debt crisis continues to dampen the fundamental outlook for the region.

British Pound: Poised For Fresh Yearly High As Upward Trend Gathers Pace

The British Pound extended the advance from earlier this week amid the rise in risk-taking behavior, and we expect to see fresh yearly highs in the GBPUSD as the upward trending channel continues to take shape. However, as the economic docket is expected to show easing price pressures in the U.K., we may see the GBPUSD consolidate going into the end of the week, and we will look to buy the pair on a pullback as it carves out a higher low in April. As the Bank of England is scheduled to release its policy meeting minutes next week, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric could set the stage for another move to the upside, and we may see the sterling outperform against its major counterparts should the Monetary Policy Committee continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy.

U.S. Dollar: Index Eyes 9,900 For Support, Fed Officials In Focus

The greenback tumbled lower on Thursday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)slipping to a fresh weekly low of 9,913, and the reserve currency may track lower throughout the North American trade as the U.S. equity market continues to pare the decline from earlier this week. As the rise in risk-taking behavior gathers pace, we may see the dollar index fall back towards 9,900 to test for interim support, and the slew of central bank rhetoric on tap for later today may help to prop up the greenback should Fed officials talk down speculation for additional monetary support. Indeed, we will be closely watching the remarks from FOMC voting members William Dudley and Sarah Bloom Raskin as central bank officials take note of the more robust recovery, and we may see the committee continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.

AUDUSD Trickles Lower – January Pivots in Focus

Focus remains on early year pivot lows at 10230 and 10145 (YTD low). As mentioned this morning, December pivots at 10043 and 9860 would come into play if ‘risk really falls out of bed’. 10145 intersects the downward sloping line that extends off of the 3/15 and 3/22 lows on Friday and being the YTD low, one would expect a reaction (short covering) if reached. Resistance for Thursday is 10290/10300.
Bottom Line (next 5 days) – lower

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite buoyed by reports that private lenders said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal

 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite buoyed by reports that private lenders said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal

***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €3.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €3.6B prior; €484.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €485.8B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jan 20th: $499.7B v $497.1B prior
- (DE) Germany Feb GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 5.9 v 5.6e
- (FR) France Jan Consumer Confidence: 81 v 80e
- (DK) Denmark Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.3%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Jan Consumer Confidence: -1.3 v -7.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: -14 v -11e; Economic Tendency Survey: 91.4 v 93.0e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Trade Balance (HKD): -48.9B v -54.4e; Exports Y/Y: 7.4% v 3.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 8.1% v 6.6%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec Trade Balance (SEK): 2.8B v 6.5Be
- (SE) Sweden Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.0%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Consumer Confidence: 91.6 v 92.0e
- (ZA) South Africa Dec PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 9.8% v 10.0e%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (BR) Brazil Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.9%e
- (UK) Jan CBI Industrial Reported Sales: -22 v -6e
- (IE) Ireland Dec PPI M/M: 0.5 v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.9% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €4.5B vs. €4.5B indicated in new Zero Coupon 2014 CTZ; Avg Yield 3.673% v 4.853% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.7x v 2.24x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €500M v €250-500M indicated range in 2.15% 2014 I/L Bonds; Yield 3.20%; Bid-to-cover: 2.79x
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF48B in 2014, 2017 and 2022 Bonds

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Fed Chairman Bernanke signals years of low interest rates ahead with potential more stimulus. Fed stance appears to be pro inflationary
- Dow approaching 3 highs
- US Tsy Sec Geithner will not participate in any Obama second term
- Reports that private creditors were willing to accept a lower coupon in the PSI negotiations

Equities:
FTSE 100 +1.14% at 5788, DAX +1.36% at 6508, CAC-40 +1.11% at 33491, IBEX-35 +1.36% at 8671, FTSE MIB +1.61% at 16,095, SMI +0.3% at 6090

- European equity indices opened the session higher, as the US Fed disclosed that 11 out of 17 of its members saw the FOMC raising the Fed funds rate in 2014 or later. Ahead of the Fed meeting, there were expectations in the market that the Fed would not raise rates until at least mid-2014. Since the open, indices have continued to gain on renewed optimism related to the Greece private sector involvement talks, after a Greek press report, without citing sources, said Greece's private lenders were said to be willing to accept a coupon rate of below 4% on new Greek bonds. In the past, it was reported that Greece's private lenders were seeking a coupon of at least 4%.
- In individual stocks, French name Plastic Omnium [POM.FR] has gained over 5%, after reporting Q4 sales. In the UK, Anglo American [AAL.UK] and Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] are higher following the release of their production reports. Misys [MSY.UK] has declined by over 6%, after issuing first half results. German polysilicon name Wacker Chemie [WCH.DE] has moved between gains and losses following the release of its Q4 earnings. In Switzerland, Logitech [LOGN.CH] is down over 10%, as the company's quarterly results missed expectations. Companies due to report later today include, Nokia [NOK1V.FI], Areva [AREVA.FR], Britsol-Myers Squibb [BMY], Caterpillar [CAT], Colgate [CL], 3M [MMM], Potash [POT] and AT&T [T].

Speakers:
- Greek Press report stated that private lenders were said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal with creditors are said to be willing to accept a coupon rate of below 4% on new Greek bonds. The report did not name sources, but said private sector creditors would submit a new improved offer with an avg interest rate of 3.75%. EU finance ministers had been seeking a rate of no more than 3.5% and in the past private lenders said that they would not accept less than 4%.
- German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated its view that European crisis must be addressed at its source during an address to the Bundestag (lower house). He noted that it was likely that German banks would hit capital goals in June and could fill capital gaps without aid. The SoFFin was preventive medicine for euro zone contagion.
- German Econ Min Roesler commented that the ESM rescue fund had 'clear borderlines' and that there was no clear link with its funding and fiscal pact. Germany was doing every thing possible to defend the Euro
- Senior German Official commented that Greece was not on the agenda at the Jan 30th EU Leader Summit and did not expect Troika report on second package for Greece to be ready by then
- (ES) Spain Budget Min Montoro commented that Spain was in a recession and it was worse than Europe's
- Russian Central Bank Deputy Ulyukaev commented that inflationary risks have not disappeared and that conditions were not appropriate for an interest rate cut. On the reserve currency issue, Russia might diversify into AUD assets in early Feb
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci commented that he believed 2012 GDP growth of 4% could be easily achieved and no serious risk of inflation. The IMF forecast of Turkey stressed downside risks. He noted that Turkey had compensated for TRY currency depreciation
- Turkey Econ Min Babacan commented that there was no need to revise Turkey's economic forecasts and that 2011 GDP growth exceeded 8%. He stated that the country's central bank was not causing inflation as higher interest rates reflected reality and suitable at this time but not in the long run. Turkey was prepared for any outcome with a flexible policy but could not allow fiscal loosening. - Not yet concerned about the country's currency reserves and Turkey was still drawing foreign exchange inflows. He had no major concerns on the TRY currency rate (Lira) with no target in mind
- IMF's Brekk commented that Russia should target medium term inflation between 3-5% and forecasted Russia economic medium-term growth between 3.5-40% without enacting reforms. Russia's pension spending is on an unsustainable path
- Cyprus Fin Min Kazamias commented that it received a second Russian loan payment to be used for bond redemptions with a third installment expected by the end of March
- OECD trimmed its Denmark 2012 and 2013 GDP growth outlook and noted that international economic slowdown posed new risks for Denmark. The country's economy was growing slowly and uneven from the financial crisis while its fiscal position was relatively sound
- WTO's Lamy: CNY currency remains undervalued but no consensus by exactly how much
- Iranian policy maker Emad Hosseini said lawmakers' were finalizing a bill to stop all oil trade with Europe
- Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that recent data suggested that inflation was on a declining trend with a "high" chance of SELIC rate moving below 10%

Currencies:
- FX markets continued to digest the impact of the Fed's extended zero policy guidance from Wednesday. The overall effect has seen a weaker USD coupled with renewed risk appetite and higher commodity prices. The greenback was at one-month lows against the Euro and GBP and two-month lows against the CHF.
- The EUR/USD maintained a foothold above the 1.31 handle and dealers noted that it had the technical legs to probe above 1.32. There were some initial concerns that Greek debt negotiations and renewed Portugal bailout would provide some headwinds for the pair. However, press reports that the private lenders were said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal provided additional momentum for risk appetite and the Euro. The EUR/USD tested above the 1.3170 level during the session as a result. USD/CHF tested below 0.9170 while GBP/USD probed above 1.57 handle. Precious metals were firmer with spot gold at $1,715/oz and spot Silver testing above $33.50/oz

Political/ In the Papers:
- The Irish Independent confirmed that the EU Commission will 'carefully consider' Ireland's bid to cut the Anglo Irish Bank's bailout costs. The ECB said it is open to proposals to replace Anglo Irish Bank's €30B promissory note, or government IOUs for another instrument. Ireland is paying around 6% (although it could be refinanced at 3% by the EFSF) on the outstanding €31B in promissory notes, issued mostly to deal with the collapse of Anglo Irish Bank.
- Iranian policy maker Emad Hosseini said lawmakers are finalizing a bill to stop all oil trade with Europe. The FT reported that according to Hosseini, if the plan is approved, the government will stop oil sales to Europe before the EU begins its embargo. The bill could be taken up by parliament before Sunday. On January 23rd, EU officials agreed to impose an embargo on Iranian oil, including plans to ban Iran's petrochemical shipments from May 1st.

***Looking Ahead***
- (CH) World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland
- (PT) Bank of Portugal publishes Bank Survey on Credit Market
- (US) Republican primary debate in Jacksonville, Florida
- 6:15 (EU) EU's Barroso
- 6:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel hosts Spanish PM Rajoy in Berlin
- 8:30 (US) Dec Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.10e v -0.37 prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec Durable Goods Orders: 2.0%e v 3.7% prior (revised from 3.8%); Durables Ex Transportation: 0.9%e v 0.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 370Ke v 352K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.50Me v 3.432M prior
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Retail Sales: No est v 3.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Revisions of Leading Indicators
- 10:00 (US) Dec Leading Indicators: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec New Home Sales 321Ke v 315K prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Jan Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: +2e v -4 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (CA) Canada Treasury Board President Clement speaks in Toronto
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29.0B in 7-Year Notes
- 14:30 (FR) Socialist Presidential Runner Hollande details platform on TV
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Manufacturing Business Survey: No est v 79 prior; Non-Manufacturing: No est v 79 prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Consumer Confidence: No est v 99 prior

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TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite buoyed by reports that private lenders said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal

 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite buoyed by reports that private lenders said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal
***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €3.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €3.6B prior; €484.1B parked in deposit facility vs. €485.8B prior
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Jan 20th: $499.7B v $497.1B prior
- (DE) Germany Feb GfK Consumer Confidence Survey: 5.9 v 5.6e
- (FR) France Jan Consumer Confidence: 81 v 80e
- (DK) Denmark Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.0% v 4.3%e; Gross Unemployment Rate: 6.1% v 6.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Jan Consumer Confidence: -1.3 v -7.0e; Manufacturing Confidence: -14 v -11e; Economic Tendency Survey: 91.4 v 93.0e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Trade Balance (HKD): -48.9B v -54.4e; Exports Y/Y: 7.4% v 3.5%e; Imports Y/Y: 8.1% v 6.6%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -2.1% v -2.3%e
- (SE) Sweden Dec Trade Balance (SEK): 2.8B v 6.5Be
- (SE) Sweden Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.1% v 7.0%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Consumer Confidence: 91.6 v 92.0e
- (ZA) South Africa Dec PPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 9.8% v 10.0e%e
- (IT) Italy Dec Hourly Wages M/M: 0.0% v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.5% prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Construction Costs M/M: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (BR) Brazil Dec Unemployment Rate: 4.7% v 4.9%e
- (UK) Jan CBI Industrial Reported Sales: -22 v -6e
- (IE) Ireland Dec PPI M/M: 0.5 v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 2.4% v 1.9% prior

Fixed Income:
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €4.5B vs. €4.5B indicated in new Zero Coupon 2014 CTZ; Avg Yield 3.673% v 4.853% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.7x v 2.24x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €500M v €250-500M indicated range in 2.15% 2014 I/L Bonds; Yield 3.20%; Bid-to-cover: 2.79x
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF48B in 2014, 2017 and 2022 Bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Fed Chairman Bernanke signals years of low interest rates ahead with potential more stimulus. Fed stance appears to be pro inflationary
- Dow approaching 3 highs
- US Tsy Sec Geithner will not participate in any Obama second term
- Reports that private creditors were willing to accept a lower coupon in the PSI negotiations
Equities:
FTSE 100 +1.14% at 5788, DAX +1.36% at 6508, CAC-40 +1.11% at 33491, IBEX-35 +1.36% at 8671, FTSE MIB +1.61% at 16,095, SMI +0.3% at 6090
- European equity indices opened the session higher, as the US Fed disclosed that 11 out of 17 of its members saw the FOMC raising the Fed funds rate in 2014 or later. Ahead of the Fed meeting, there were expectations in the market that the Fed would not raise rates until at least mid-2014. Since the open, indices have continued to gain on renewed optimism related to the Greece private sector involvement talks, after a Greek press report, without citing sources, said Greece's private lenders were said to be willing to accept a coupon rate of below 4% on new Greek bonds. In the past, it was reported that Greece's private lenders were seeking a coupon of at least 4%.
- In individual stocks, French name Plastic Omnium [POM.FR] has gained over 5%, after reporting Q4 sales. In the UK, Anglo American [AAL.UK] and Kazakhmys [KAZ.UK] are higher following the release of their production reports. Misys [MSY.UK] has declined by over 6%, after issuing first half results. German polysilicon name Wacker Chemie [WCH.DE] has moved between gains and losses following the release of its Q4 earnings. In Switzerland, Logitech [LOGN.CH] is down over 10%, as the company's quarterly results missed expectations. Companies due to report later today include, Nokia [NOK1V.FI], Areva [AREVA.FR], Britsol-Myers Squibb [BMY], Caterpillar [CAT], Colgate [CL], 3M [MMM], Potash [POT] and AT&T [T].
Speakers:
- Greek Press report stated that private lenders were said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal with creditors are said to be willing to accept a coupon rate of below 4% on new Greek bonds. The report did not name sources, but said private sector creditors would submit a new improved offer with an avg interest rate of 3.75%. EU finance ministers had been seeking a rate of no more than 3.5% and in the past private lenders said that they would not accept less than 4%.
- German Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated its view that European crisis must be addressed at its source during an address to the Bundestag (lower house). He noted that it was likely that German banks would hit capital goals in June and could fill capital gaps without aid. The SoFFin was preventive medicine for euro zone contagion.
- German Econ Min Roesler commented that the ESM rescue fund had 'clear borderlines' and that there was no clear link with its funding and fiscal pact. Germany was doing every thing possible to defend the Euro
- Senior German Official commented that Greece was not on the agenda at the Jan 30th EU Leader Summit and did not expect Troika report on second package for Greece to be ready by then
- (ES) Spain Budget Min Montoro commented that Spain was in a recession and it was worse than Europe's
- Russian Central Bank Deputy Ulyukaev commented that inflationary risks have not disappeared and that conditions were not appropriate for an interest rate cut. On the reserve currency issue, Russia might diversify into AUD assets in early Feb
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci commented that he believed 2012 GDP growth of 4% could be easily achieved and no serious risk of inflation. The IMF forecast of Turkey stressed downside risks. He noted that Turkey had compensated for TRY currency depreciation
- Turkey Econ Min Babacan commented that there was no need to revise Turkey's economic forecasts and that 2011 GDP growth exceeded 8%. He stated that the country's central bank was not causing inflation as higher interest rates reflected reality and suitable at this time but not in the long run. Turkey was prepared for any outcome with a flexible policy but could not allow fiscal loosening. - Not yet concerned about the country's currency reserves and Turkey was still drawing foreign exchange inflows. He had no major concerns on the TRY currency rate (Lira) with no target in mind
- IMF's Brekk commented that Russia should target medium term inflation between 3-5% and forecasted Russia economic medium-term growth between 3.5-40% without enacting reforms. Russia's pension spending is on an unsustainable path
- Cyprus Fin Min Kazamias commented that it received a second Russian loan payment to be used for bond redemptions with a third installment expected by the end of March
- OECD trimmed its Denmark 2012 and 2013 GDP growth outlook and noted that international economic slowdown posed new risks for Denmark. The country's economy was growing slowly and uneven from the financial crisis while its fiscal position was relatively sound
- WTO's Lamy: CNY currency remains undervalued but no consensus by exactly how much
- Iranian policy maker Emad Hosseini said lawmakers' were finalizing a bill to stop all oil trade with Europe
- Brazil Central Bank (COPOM) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes noted that recent data suggested that inflation was on a declining trend with a "high" chance of SELIC rate moving below 10%
Currencies:
- FX markets continued to digest the impact of the Fed's extended zero policy guidance from Wednesday. The overall effect has seen a weaker USD coupled with renewed risk appetite and higher commodity prices. The greenback was at one-month lows against the Euro and GBP and two-month lows against the CHF.
- The EUR/USD maintained a foothold above the 1.31 handle and dealers noted that it had the technical legs to probe above 1.32. There were some initial concerns that Greek debt negotiations and renewed Portugal bailout would provide some headwinds for the pair. However, press reports that the private lenders were said to have accepted lower interest rate in Greek PSI deal provided additional momentum for risk appetite and the Euro. The EUR/USD tested above the 1.3170 level during the session as a result. USD/CHF tested below 0.9170 while GBP/USD probed above 1.57 handle. Precious metals were firmer with spot gold at $1,715/oz and spot Silver testing above $33.50/oz
Political/ In the Papers:
- The Irish Independent confirmed that the EU Commission will 'carefully consider' Ireland's bid to cut the Anglo Irish Bank's bailout costs. The ECB said it is open to proposals to replace Anglo Irish Bank's €30B promissory note, or government IOUs for another instrument. Ireland is paying around 6% (although it could be refinanced at 3% by the EFSF) on the outstanding €31B in promissory notes, issued mostly to deal with the collapse of Anglo Irish Bank.
- Iranian policy maker Emad Hosseini said lawmakers are finalizing a bill to stop all oil trade with Europe. The FT reported that according to Hosseini, if the plan is approved, the government will stop oil sales to Europe before the EU begins its embargo. The bill could be taken up by parliament before Sunday. On January 23rd, EU officials agreed to impose an embargo on Iranian oil, including plans to ban Iran's petrochemical shipments from May 1st.
***Looking Ahead***
- (CH) World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland
- (PT) Bank of Portugal publishes Bank Survey on Credit Market
- (US) Republican primary debate in Jacksonville, Florida
- 6:15 (EU) EU's Barroso
- 6:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel hosts Spanish PM Rajoy in Berlin
- 8:30 (US) Dec Chicago Fed National Activity Index: -0.10e v -0.37 prior
- 8:30 (US) Dec Durable Goods Orders: 2.0%e v 3.7% prior (revised from 3.8%); Durables Ex Transportation: 0.9%e v 0.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 370Ke v 352K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.50Me v 3.432M prior
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Nov Retail Sales: No est v 3.0% prior
- 10:00 (US) Revisions of Leading Indicators
- 10:00 (US) Dec Leading Indicators: 0.7%e v 0.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Dec New Home Sales 321Ke v 315K prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) Jan Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: +2e v -4 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (CA) Canada Treasury Board President Clement speaks in Toronto
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $29.0B in 7-Year Notes
- 14:30 (FR) Socialist Presidential Runner Hollande details platform on TV
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Manufacturing Business Survey: No est v 79 prior; Non-Manufacturing: No est v 79 prior
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Jan Consumer Confidence: No est v 99 prior
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.