Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish

Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish

12 July 2012 12:55 GMT Talking Points
Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August
The Euro tumbled to a fresh yearly low of 1.2169 amid the weakening outlook for the region, and the pair may continue to track lower over the remainder of the week as the European Central Bank strikes a dovish tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the ECB warned that the downside risks for the region ‘have materialized’ in its monthly report, and went onto say that the fundamental outlook remains clouded by ‘heightened uncertainty’ as European policy makers struggle to stem the risk for contagion.
In turn, ECB board member Jozef Makuch said that the central bank ‘will use all the tools it has already used or new measures’ to shore up the ailing economy, and it seems as though the Governing Council is leaning towards a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as the region faces a threat for a prolonged recession. As the downward trend in the EURUSD continues to take shape, we will maintain our bearish forecast for the pair, and the euro-dollar looks poised to give back the rebound from 2010 (1.1875) as market participants expect to see lower borrowing costs in Europe. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are now pricing an 83% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the August 2 meeting, and we should see the Governing Council continue to embark on its easing cycle as growth and inflation falter.
British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus
The British Pound continued to consolidate on Thursday, with the GBPUSD slipping to a fresh weekly low of 1.5432, and the sterling may continue to give back the rebound from 1.5268 as market participants scale back their appetite for risk. We may see the GBPUSD continue to trade within a broad range as it remains supported by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270, but the Bank of England Minutes on tap for the week ahead may produce a meaningful move in the exchange rate as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Until then, we should see risk trends continue to dictate price action for the GBPUSD, and the pair may weaken further over the remainder of the week as the flight to safety picks up.
U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP
The near-term outlook for the greenback remains bullish as the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) breaks out of the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month, and the reserve currency may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as market sentiment falters. As China’s 2Q GDP report comes into focus, we’re expecting to see growth expand at the slowest pace since 2009, fears of a ‘hard landing’ may continue to sap risk-taking behavior, and the short-term rally in the dollar may gather pace in the coming days as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows.  

EUR Bearish Outlook Reinforced By ECB, GBP Still Needs To Test 1.6000

03 May 2012 14:55 GMT  Talking Points Euro: ECB Maintains Balanced Tone, Preserves Easing Cycle British Pound: Correction To Gather Pace, BoE Rate Decision Comes Into Focus U.S. Dollar: Advances Ahead Of NFPs, FOMC To Adopt Hawkish Tone Euro: ECB Maintains Balanced Tone, Preserves Easing Cycle
The Euro bounced back from an overnight low of 1.3096 as the ECB held the benchmark interest rate at 1.00% and talked down speculation for additional monetary support, but it seems as though the Governing Council will carry its easing cycle into the following year as it remains premature for the central bank to embark on an exit strategy. Indeed, ECB President Mario Draghi tried to talk down the risks surrounding the region as the central bank expects to see a gradual recovery across the region, but warned that the fundamental outlook for the region has become increasingly uncertain amid the ongoing turmoil in the financial system.
Based on the recent comments, it seems as though the Governing Council remains open to expand monetary policy further in the second-half of the year, and we should see the central bank take additional steps to shore up the ailing economy as the risk for inflation remains ‘broadly balanced.’ As the region continues to face a risk for a prolonged recession, the slowing recovery could dampen price growth throughout 2012, and the weakening outlook for the region continues to reinforce a bearish outlook for the single currency as European policy makers maintain a reactionary approach in addressing the risks surrounding the region. As the EURUSD continues to approach the apex of the descending triangle, we are still waiting for a break of 1.3000 for a larger move to the downside, and we will look to sell rallies in the euro-dollar as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak.
British Pound: Correction To Gather Pace, BoE Rate Decision Comes Into Focus
The British Pound continued to consolidate on Thursday, with the GBPUSD slipping to an overnight low of 1.6158, and the short-term correction should gather pace in the days ahead as the relative strength index continues to come off of overbought territory. However, as the Bank of England decision on tap for May 10 comes into focus, the fresh batch of comments from the central bank should prop up the sterling, and we may see the GBPUSD fall back towards 1.6000 – former resistance – before it resumes the upward trend from earlier this year. As we see the BoE moving away from its easing cycle, the shift in the policy outlook should prop up the British Pound, and we expect to see fresh yearly highs in the GBPUSD as the Monetary Policy Committee sees an increased risk for inflation.
U.S. Dollar: Advances Ahead Of NFPs, FOMC To Adopt Hawkish Tone
The greenback tracked higher ahead of the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) rallying to a high of 9,923, and the reserve currency may continue to retrace the decline from the previous month should we see a marked improvement in the labor market. Indeed, the drop in initial and continuing jobless claims certainly bodes well for NFP’s, and a strong print could spark a sharp rally in the greenback as it dampens expectations for another round of quantitative easing. In turn, we should see the FOMC sound more hawkish going into the second-half of the year, and the committee may start to outline a tentative exit strategy as the more robust recovery raises the risk for inflation.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong
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03 May 2012 14:55 GMT May, 02 13:25 GMT Bearish Euro Formation In Focus, British Pound Searching For SupportMay, 01 13:30 GMT EUR Threatens Bearish Formation On Holiday Trade, GBP Carving TopApr, 30 13:10 GMT Euro Formation Foreshadows Key Break, Sterling Rally To Gather PaceApr, 26 14:05 GMT Euro Struggles Ahead Of Italian Bond Auction, Sterling Eyes 1.6250Apr, 25 13:15 GMT USD To Hold Steady Ahead Of FOMC, Euro Outlook Remains Bearish On ECB

USD Index Threatens Bearish Channel, AUD Approaching Key Support

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Par David Song, analyste de monnaie 02 mai 2012 16:10 GMT l'indice Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar (Ticker : USDollar) reste plus élevée le jour après son arrivée à 87 pour cent de sa gamme vraie moyenne de 0,31 %, et le changement de comportement de prise de risque devrait continuer à soutenir la monnaie de réserve car elle profite des coulées de refuge. Cependant, comme l'index se démène pour tenir au-dessus de soutien ancien environ 9 900, la figure peut agir comme une nouvelle résistance et nous pourrions assister le billet vert consolider avant la fin de la semaine comme le canal de tendance à la baisse continue de prendre forme. À son tour, la remontée de l'USD peut être de courte durée, mais le billet vert pourrait finalement percée de la formation de baissière devraient les développements qui sortent de la plus grande économie du monde imbiber des attentes en matière de soutien financier supplémentaire.

Il semble que l'USDOLLAR a trouvé un soutien provisoire autour le retracement de Fibonacci de 50,0 % environ 9 830, mais continue de la divergence de l'indice de force relative à une perspective baissière pour le billet vert qu'il maintient la tendance à la baisse de mars. Néanmoins, il semble que le président Fed de San Francisco, John Williams rejoint Dennis Lockhart et Jeffery Lacker, qui tous servent sur le FOMC cette année, il prend note de la reprise plus robuste, et il semble que le Comité continuera à s'éloigner de son cycle de faciliter cette année que la croissance et l'inflation se rassemblent de l'APCE. Comme les perspectives fondamentales pour l'économie mondiale s'améliore, nous pourrions assister la Fed à mettre au point une stratégie de sortie provisoire dans la seconde moitié de l'année, et le déplacement dans les perspectives de la politique remet certainement une prévision optimiste pour l'USD comme les acteurs du marché à l'échelle arrière spéculations de3.

Le dollar se rallie à travers la Commission mercredi, dirigé par une baisse de 0,63 % dans la zone Euro, tandis que le dollar australien a fragilisé un autre 0,30 % au milieu du vol à la sécurité. Pendant ce temps, Credit Suisse nuits indice swaps continueront afin de tenir compte des attentes de plus faibles coûts d'emprunt, avec le prix de la Reserve Bank of Australia pour abaisser le taux d'intérêt de référence par près de 75bp au cours des 12 prochains mois, les acteurs du marché et la monnaie à haut rendement peut continuer de donner en retour l'avance du plus tôt cette année, la Banque centrale semble faire son cycle de détente dans la seconde moitié de l'année. Bien que nous sommes toujours baissier sur l'AUDUSD, nous devons voir soutien vers 1.0200 céder le pas à voir la paire de se replier vers les 38.2 % Fib du Bas 2010 à 2011 haute autour de 0.9930-50, et nous pourrions assister à l'aussie venir sous une pression accrue sur les prochaines 24 heures de trading rapport sur la politique monétaire de la RBA devrait accroître la spéculation pour une série de réductions des taux.

---Écrit par David Song, analyste de la monnaie

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2 Mai 2012 16:10 GMT mai, 01:16:15 GMT USD Index sculpter plu faible, Sterling Correction en vertu de la WayApr, 26 16:15 GMT USD recherche pour soutien devant 1 q PIB, Outlook JPY baissier sur BoJApr, 25 USD 14:45 GMT, sur le point de rassemblement sur moins Fed Colombe, Sterling Correction en vertu de la WayApr, 24 15:55 GMT USD continue à construire la Base avant du FOMC, JPY en péril sur les PolicyApr de la BOJ23:16:00 GMT USD Index détient la clé soutien, AUD yeux 1.02 avant du risque d'événement majeur

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!! EURO threatens bearish Formation on the holidays, high carving GBP trade

01 may 2012 analyst 13: 30 GMT  Talking Points

Euro: Threat descending Spain, Triangle Bond Auction in Focus of Sterling: United Kingdom manufacturing Cools, RSI Falls Back From surachat Dollar: ISM manufacturing on tap, looking at the employment component Euro: threat descending Spain, Triangle Bond Auction In Focus

The Euro soared to a weekly maximum charge of the 1.3277, even as most of Europe and Asia was offline on Tuesday and the rebound may gather pace during the holiday as the pair trade threat bearish formation from earlier this year. However, as the Spain is scheduled for the auction of three and five-year debt on Thursday could be the entering consolidate into the middle of the week, and the results are likely to strengthen a bearish perspective to the single currency as the periphery countries continue to face costs of public finance.

During this time, Chairman of the Group Euro-Jean-Claude Juncker announced that he will leave his post as European policy makers strive to meet on common ground and the current rift in the European Union presents a bearish for the EURUSD perspective, as Governments under the single currency become more and more dependent on monetary support. As the sovereign debt crisis continues to increase the risk of a prolonged recession, we expect to see the European Central Bank to do its cycle of relaxation through 2012 and the Board of Governors may look to target the reference interest rate as the non-standard measures have a limited impact addressing the risks surrounding the area. Although the EURUSD threatens bearish formation from earlier this year, we will maintain our appeal for the pair seems to be carving a high low just below 1.3300, and interim support around 1.3000 should finally give as price action continues to approach the apex of the triangle down.

Pound sterling: United Kingdom manufacturing Cools, RSI Falls Back From Overbought

The pound slipped to a minimum of 1.6190 the United Kingdom manufacturing increased at the slowest pace since December, and the GBPUSD may continue to consolidate in the week, as the economic record is expected to show a slowdown of recovery in the region. As the strength relative index surachat, the pound sterling-dollar territory particularly may have carved out a high court in may, but bull sentiment emphasizing the sterling should gather pace throughout 2012 as the Bank of England reduced its dovish tone for monetary policy. As the GBPUSD maintains the trend since the beginning of this year, we are looking for high costs in the exchange rate and the sterling may exceed in the short term that the Central Bank is similar to conclude the cycle of relaxation.

US dollar: ISM manufacturing on tap, look at the employment component

The greenback has continued to gain ground on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) rally at a maximum of 9 863, but the reserve currency may come under pressure during the trade in North America as the economic record is expected to strengthen a vision impaired for the United States. The Manufacturing ISM index should fall the previous month to 53.0 in April of 53.4, the slower pace of production could renew speculation for a new round of quantitative easing, but we will keep a watchful eye on the employment component as non-agricultural earnings highly anticipated report are due Friday. However, as risk trends continue to dictate the action in the foreign exchange market prices, decreased sense of market could support the USD, and risk taking behaviour change can gather pace in the coming days if the prospects for global growth deteriorates.

$$$ USD Outlook remains optimistic on FOMC, Euro bearish Formation in Focus

24 April 2012 analyst 14: 00 GMT Talking PointsUS dollar: Fed to maintain the current policy, soften your Euro Dove: Spain, Italy Face, rising costs of funding - descending Triangle rest play pound sterling: Hits of the high annual costs before of the Dollar of us GDP for the United Kingdom 1 q: Fed to maintain the current policy, soften your Dove
The greenback came under pressure from the decision of interest rates FOMC, with the Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) give back the night advance to 9 947, but the decision to rate on tap for tomorrow may support the currency reserve that the Committee away from its relaxation cycle. While the FOMC widely expected to maintain its current policy in April, lot fresh rhetoric of Central Bank coupled with the updated growth forecasts and inflation can strengthen our optimistic appeal for the USD as the Fed leaders take note of the more robust recovery.
In turn, we could attend the Committee begin to discuss a strategy of provisional output as fundamental prospects for the United States resumed, but the President of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may keep the door open to develop policies more that the sovereign debt crisis continues to pose a threat to the global financial system. Nevertheless, as the switches of the Fed is preparing, the shift in the Outlook for the policy must lead the higher of the greenback in 2012, and we should see the bullish formation on the USDOLLAR continue to take shape as it excludes a lower about 9 900. Therefore, we always look to see another run at 78.6% Fibonacci allows 10 118, and the fundamental principles that come out of the global economy should be more important in the conduct of the price action as the Fed seems to conclude its policy of zero interest rates.
Euro: Spain, Italy Face increased costs of funding - descending Triangle remains at stake
The Euro advanced to 1.3190 in the rise in risk taking behaviour, but the rebound is likely to be of short duration such as reviving the costs of funding through the European periphery raises the threat of contagion. Indeed, the performance related to the Spain and the Italy of debt continued to grow more than Governments operated the overnight bond market, and the ongoing upheaval in the area continues to inspire a vision impaired for the EURUSD as failure of European political decision-makers to restore the confidence of investors. Governments to operate under the single currency become more and more dependent on monetary aid, the European Central Bank may face increased pressure to further develop the monetary policy, but the wait and see approach by the Council of Governors may limit the appeal of the Euro as there seems to be a growing split within the group. As the formation of the EURUSD down continues to pan out, we should see the pair of lower track going in may, and the entering maintains a bond risk strong action price approach of the apex of the triangle down.
Pound sterling: affects high annual fees before of 1 q UK GDP.
Sterling extended in advance from earlier this month, with the GBPUSD rallying to a fresh 1.6163 annual Summit, and the sterling may enjoy in the next 24 hours of trading the economic role must encourage improved prospects for the United Kingdom as the report of the first quarter GDP advance is expected to show the economy to return to growth, a strong footprint could trigger a race to the 23.6% Fib of the eyes of low to high around 1.6250 and the sterling 2009 loan to appreciate further in 2012 as the Bank of England seems to conclude its relaxation cycle. As the GBPUSD maintains upward trend channel earlier this year, we expect to see high costs in may, but we will keep a close eye on the territory of surachat strength relative index of the approaches. Nevertheless, we should see former resistance around Act 1.6000 as new as the trend in the GBPUSD gathers pace and the sterling may surpass against its major counterparts in the rest of the year of change in Outlook accessories policy interest rate expectations.
-Written by David Song, currency analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @ DavidJSong
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Fed of Richmond Manufacturing Index (APR)
Corporate price (YoY) (MAR)
More small decline since December.
Index of consumer prices (QoQ) (first quarter)
Slow pace of growth since Meur 2009. Core CPI lowest since the first quarter of 2011.
Index of consumer prices (YoY) (first quarter)
ICC RBA trimmed average (QoQ) (first quarter)
ICC RBA trimmed average (YoY) (first quarter)
CPI median weighted RBA (QoQ) (first quarter)
CPI median weighted RBA (YoY) (first quarter)
Credit card spending s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Credit card, spending (YoY) (MAR)
Balance (Swiss franc) trade (MAR)
Exports fell for the second time in 2012.
Indicator of consumption UBS (MAR)
Of France (APR) consumer confidence indicator
French global survey business application (APR)
Italian hourly wage (MoM) (MAR)
Italian hourly wages (YoY) (MAR)
Public finances (PSNCR) (pounds) (MAR)
More large deficit since November 2010.
Sector public Net borrowing (pounds) (MAR)
Sector public borrowing Net ex Interventions (MAR)
Contracts for the first time since July.
Retail sales less Autos (MoM) (FEB)
S & P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 s.a. (MoM) (FEB)
Advances for the first time since April, 2011.
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24 April 2012 14: 00 GMT Apr, 23: 13: 40 GMT Euro for threatening to 1.3000, Howser training Sterling to collect PaceApr, 20: 14: 20 GMT Euro relief rally offer sale opportunity, book key of eyes 1. 6250Apr, 19: 13: 10 GMT Euro continues to sculpt, high of Sterling cost in SightApr, 18: 13: 25 GMT Euro eyes support to come to Spain Bond Auction, Sterling at OutperformApr, 17: 16: 20 GMT USD Index threatens a trend more largeLivre sterling eyes 2012 maximum charge

€ Euro Patterns Uniformly Bearish €

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Morning Notes:
I want to concentrate on the euro given the test of resistance in the EURUSD.
EURUSD – The EURUSD is nearing the 13212/50 resistance zone. If it overshoots, then 13300 might even be a possibility. I do like fading strength above 13212 with a stop at 13385. This feels like the ‘last gasp’, a trap, etc.


EURNZD – The EURNZD is uniformly bearish. Testing resistance from the 3/6 high, bearish continuation in April is favored as long as price is below 16307.


EURNZD – 5 waves down and 3 waves up from the March high. It doesn’t get much more bearish than this.


EURCAD – Either a triangle is complete or will complete next week above 13176. The trend is bearish below 13329. A breakout from the bearish triangle would target the mid 12000s.
T

€ NZD/USD Pattern is Bearish Pre-CPI €

Morning Notes:
DAX – Look lower in the DAX from these levels to new lows as per the operative wave count. The drop will probably feel panicky and be fully retraced.


EURUSD – “Rallies since the March low have unfolded in a corrective manner (3 waves). The suggestion is that the larger trend is down. Focus remains on 12900 and price ideally stays under 13212 although 13379 is the key trend defining level.”


AUDUSD – No change - “From a risk standpoint, 10464 is the bearish line in the sand for me. Exceeding that level would shift focus to former supports at 10509 and 10597.” Last week’s advance failed just before 10464 and at the underside of former trendline support and channel resistance. 10145-10386 is the opening range for the year (first 2 weeks) and a break of the early year range would open up the floodgates towards 9860 and 9660.
NZDUSD – The combination of price pattern since the late February top and key reversal on Friday warrants a bearish stance against 8320. Resistance from December and the 100% extension of the 8471-8061 decline at 7878-7908 define the target area.


USDJPY – Price has rebounded sharply from Monday’s low to reach former support at 8154. Trendline resistance and the 20 day average are additional resistance. The trend for the month has been down and I still want to see a move to new highs in the 10 year (to create divergence) before returning to long USDJPY. 8090-8110 is support.

>>> EURUSD is Bearish Until 12900 but Don't Fall in Love…Yet!

PRICE TREND / RANGE TABLE

PRICE TREND / RANGE TABLE

	250 Days			60 Days			20 Days
	Price Rank	Range	Rank	Price Rank	Range	Rank	Price Rank	Range	Rank	ATR %	Rank
AUDCAD	53	868	0	24	600	68	68	337	11	0.73	42
AUDJPY	60	1754	42	39	849	19	21	615	95	1.48	100
AUDNZD	20	1386	4	10	528	95	32	358	42	0.53	0
AUDUSD	44	1693	8	20	630	12	63	411	26	1.02	21
CADJPY	63	1448	42	54	927	63	11	476	58	1.38	89
CHFJPY	49	2869	73	49	1037	39	11	465	37	1.28	95
EURAUD	22	2128	77	73	758	15	16	501	42	0.79	11
EURCAD	13	1505	5	36	587	0	47	389	0	0.74	16
EURCHF	20	2897	27	3	151	8	11	85	0	0.15	0
EURGBP	4	862	38	8	279	14	26	169	42	0.52	0
EURJPY	45	2480	72	47	1232	41	11	599	95	1.29	89
EURNZD	7	3296	27	29	808	0	0	517	42	0.82	0
EURUSD	23	2317	45	49	610	0	37	353	0	0.82	0
GBPAUD	51	1832	43	81	947	31	42	605	21	0.82	42
GBPCHF	88	3336	16	86	443	0	74	249	5	0.53	0
GBPJPY	70	2021	41	56	1430	66	11	561	16	1.21	68
GBPUSD	58	1513	54	95	613	0	84	369	0	0.65	0
NZDJPY	84	1210	13	56	737	19	26	354	21	1.49	63
NZDUSD	75	1473	11	63	475	0	100	230	0	1.03	0
USDCAD	49	1252	35	32	320	0	42	192	63	0.71	100
USDCHF	62	2528	8	27	448	0	42	253	0	0.82	0
USDJPY	79	861	0	49	815	66	11	352	21	1.06	63

-PriceRank is the percentile rank of the last daily close compared most recent 250, 60 and 20 daily closes (100=highest close and 0 = lowest close)
-Range is the difference in pips of highest high – lowest low over X days (250, 60, 20) – for example, a range of 500 under the 20 days column means that the highest 20 day high – the lowest 20 day low = 500 pips
-Rank is the percentile rank of the range over X days (250, 60, 20) – for example, a rank of 100 under the 20 day column means that the range over the last 20 days is the highest it has been in 20 days
-ATR % is the 20 day ATR expressed as a %
-Rank is the percentile rank of ATR% over the last 20 days
*The following 4 charts are updated from last week. It’s important to keep these ideas and their implications fresh in our minds.
Yen Futures (black on top) / 10 Yr US Treasury Note Futures (green on bottom)
Weekly



Jamie – A new high in the 10 year (the entire treasury complex) is most likely not going to be coincident with a new high in Yen (new low in USDJPY). This divergence will help in timing the next USDJPY long (more on USDJPY pattern below). There is a new weekly closing high right now but the high (1/31 high) isn’t until 132’02.
AUDUSD and 3 Month Volatility
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – Red dots indicate when 3 month implied volatility has been 11.5% or lower. Notice that as the AUDUSD has declined from its late February high, volatility has NOT increased significantly. This dynamic leaves the current situation more similar to the decline from the 2008 top (financial crisis) rather than the decline from the April 2010 top (flash crash). A ‘real’ bear market begins with a gradual decline and evolves into a panic. A panic style decline right off of the top is not to be trusted.
EURUSD and 3 Month Volatility
Weekly


Jamie – 3 month implied volatility in the EURUSD just ticked up from its lowest level since August 2008, when price was in the early stages of its descent from 16000. The rally into the early April high was turned away by the trendline that extends off of the August and October tops.
EURUSD (April indicated by red dots)
Daily



Jamie – April has served as a pivot since 2008. Tops formed in 2008 and 2011 (was retested in 2008). Price declined in 2009 but into a secondary low. Price declined in 2010 and plunged into the June low. Price is declining in 2012. Structure at multiple degrees of trend (corrective rally from the January low and impulsive declines from the February and March highs) suggests that April 2012 may prove to be the most important and bearish pivot of all.
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)
Daily


Jamie – The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has retraced yesterday’s decline and is back to its 20 day average. More importantly, the early month low of 9893 has held, which keeps pattern constructive from a seasonality perspective. Breaks above 10097 and 10134 are expected in the coming weeks. Daily RSI action is constructive, which continues to bounce from near 50 (a bullish characteristic).
Euro / US Dollar
Daily


Jamie – It finally appears that 13003 is on the verge of giving way. Doing so would shift focus to resistance from January at 12880. This level intersects channel support next late next week. Watch that level closely because a drop below the channel would be a ‘tell’ that the decline from 13379 is a 3rd wave rather than a C wave. On the other hand, a rebound from that level (or spike below and recovery) would favor the C wave interpretation. Subjectively, I favor the more bearish 3rd wave interpretation as per the volatility and ‘April pivot’ implications.
British Pound / US Dollar
Daily

Jamie –“The ‘reliable’ divergence with RSI on the daily (reliable in that RSI is not even close to 70) and last week’s key reversal (new 13 week high, close below prior close and large relative range) is suggestive of an important top.” The short term pattern can’t be much cleaner either; the decline from 16062 is in 5 waves and was followed by a corrective rally that failed at former support (4/2 low) and the 61.8% retracement. Look lower towards 15770 and the 100% extension at 15727. The 100% extension intersects channel support on Tuesday. The implications regarding the channel are the same for the GBPUSD as for the EURUSD (a break under would be a ‘tell’ that a 3rd wave is underway).
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Daily


Jamie – “From a risk standpoint, 10464 is the bearish line in the sand for me. Exceeding that level would shift focus to former supports at 10509 and 10597.” Thursday’s advance failed just before 10464 and at the underside of former trendline support and channel resistance. 10145-10386 is the opening range for the year (first 2 weeks) and a break of the early year range would open up the floodgates towards 9860 and 9660.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Daily Bars


Jamie – Price is holding the March low (8058) but that’s it. In the event of a more substantial bounce, resistance comes in from former supports at 8154 and 8196. A bounce of that magnitude would offer a chance to short against the April high of 8330. The October 2011 intervention high at 7953 is an objective.
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
Weekly


A long term view of the AUDNZD reveals the potential vulnerability of the AUD in general. A drop under 12315 would complete a 2 year topping process. Patterns of that length are significant. The 20 day average and Thursday’s high at 12666/75 is near term resistance.