Unter Ausnutzung der Post NFP EURUSD Rückgang

EURUSD short pants were today morning (on Twitter @ JamieSaettele) finished at 12335. This does not mean that I am no longer bearish over the longer term. It only means that reward/risk is no longer oversized down my view. There are certain fixed use a movement about news policies that I have come to respect and such a guideline is to your favor, especially after an extended move. A decrease of 2.5% in 5 days qualifies as an advanced move. In fact, this 5-day decline is the largest since 2/29-3/6. The EURUSD rallied strongly for the next 2 days before weakness resumed. At this time my focus on return is on the short side as close as possible (12150 still of interest, if we can return to the short side) 12400. Also, it seems that the volume spike further AUDUSD called top.

"The market (S)" risk "aka." SNAPSHOT - 60 minute closes
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
EURUSD - daily bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
EURUSD - 60 minute bars

FX News: EUR/USD technical report classic

18 June 2012 06: 07 GMT   EUR/USD: market is in train to correct certain levels violently oversold after break-up of annually lows little less 1.2300. While our global perspective is clearly bearish, here we find yet place upside in the short term before a low high fee is requested. Locate the last positive weekly open the door for an acceleration in the region of 1.2800 - 1.3000, where new offers are likely to re-emerge. Reverse must be well supported to 1.2400.

News Forex: EURUSD falls below 1.26 as yields soar Spanish

Basic Articles
- Shortages of dollars Seen on $ 2 trillion Gap - Bloomberg
- The heads of Euro sign Greek austerity softening, such as looms Summit - Bloomberg
- Islamists in Egypt demand the presidency that the NEAR army control - Reuters
- Conservatives of Greece begin coalition talks - WSJ
- Overvoltages yields Spanish, Greek Relief Wanes - WSJ
Meeting summary Asia / Europe
Greek elections gave the surprising result of the victory of the New Democracy strong, with the rescue team to get enough votes to be able to form a coalition government with the rescue of the other major party, the PASOK. If this materializes, it will continue to fight the rescue party Syriza outside the main opposition party, but it is only likely to last long. Early reports indicate that PASOK will not form a coalition government without the inclusion of Syriza, whose leader Alexis Tsipras has already said his party will not join the new democracy in a "grand coalition" of all kinds.
In a bit of speculation on how this will develop the Greek drama, as a politician, Mr. Tsipras plays his cards right, because there seems to be in the game for the long term. So if Syriza had to win yesterday would have been only a very narrow margin, which would probably have deteriorated rapidly in case of Greece need another rescue under his command (it will be in about a month ). On the other hand, with a strong presence, Syriza is ready to get the majority support of a few months, when the Greeks return to the polls (assuming that the New Democracy and PASOK to form a government), the coalition of center will not do anything to change the material from the expected path of Greece outside the eurozone.
As a result of Greek elections were digested, it is now clear that the G-20 will not make the nuclear option to flood markets with hundreds of millions of dollars of liquidity to ensure price stability in the coming days. It was most of the reasons why the markets rallied in late last week, and without the promise of greater flexibility, most of the taste after the falling U.S. dollar has been stifled. This "rebound" to reality after the election has dragged on EURUSD from its highest level in three weeks back at 1.2600 1.2747 just before the U.S. equity cash open.
First, no smoothing along the way, investors have thrown in the mass Spanish debt, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year-emerges today 7.285% to 6.840 after the opening %. These are the highest yields of 10 years have seen Spanish since late April 1997. In the short end of the yield curve, the yield of 2-year Spanish note rose higher than 5.592%, its highest level since late November 2011.
Looking at European Credit, Italian debt is well under pressure, with 10-year notes containing 6.057% at the time of writing this report, after rising to 6.173% earlier in the day. The yield was over 10 years to 14 June, when it reached 6.342%. In the short end of the curve, Italian 2-year note rose 18.9 basis points give 4.522%.
Chart EURUSD 5 minutes: 18 June 2012

Lists created by MarketScope - Prepared by Christopher Vecchio

The dollars of Australia and New Zealand are in the day, its appreciation against the dollar by 0.22 percent and 0.34 percent. The Canadian dollar is the worst performer and lost 0.42 percent against the dollar of the United States. Having to 0.88 percent of the trading EURUSD was 0.31 percent lower at the time of writing. USDJPY was a little firmer, gaining 0.22 percent on Monday so far.
24-Hour Price Action

Key Levels: 13:45 GMT


So far, on Monday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (ticker: USD) is trading higher at 10,096.63 at the time of writing, after opening at 10,060.99 (index closed at 10,072, the 32 Friday). The index was mainly driven more in. high and low 10111.05 10060.88

::: EURUSD Inches Towards 1.26 Ahead of Critical Weekend

-Americans See Biggest Home Equity Jump in 60 Years - Bloomberg
-BofA Beating JPMorgan as BNP Leads French Lenders Retreat - Bloomberg
-Merkel Talks Tough as Spain Debt Costs Soar - Reuters
-Greece's Rural Voters 'on a Tightrope' - WSJ
-Spanish Crisis Deepens - WSJ
Asian/European Session Summary
Ranges were tight in the overnight with most of the majors (save the New Zealand Dollar, which was too by seemingly hawkish commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand) trading in less than half of a percent range against the US Dollar. The US Dollar's high was set early in the session, considering that the rating agencies Egan-Jones and Moody's Investor Services downgraded Spain near the end of each after the US session close yesterday, putting downside pressure on high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets in early Asia today.
Heading into the European session, with the Australian Dollar and the Euro leading the slide, the US Dollar posted a solid comeback following an exceptionally disappointing Italian bond auction. Italy sold €3 billion in 2015 bonds, with yields soaring to 5.30 percent from 3.91 percent a month ago. €627 million in 2019 bonds, with yields up from 5.21 percent to 6.10 percent; and €873 million in 202 bonds, with yields soaring from 5.33 percent to 6.13 percent. Indeed, these bond yields are approaching unsustainable levels, and this has to be of concern to European policymakers; the market is slowly moving on to Italy (though given recent correlations to sovereign credit default swaps, it appears the EURUSD has been tracking the situation in Greece and Spain more so than the one in Italy over the past week).
And while high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets fell back after the Italian bond auction, it is worth noting that some weak US data spurred more speculation for a third round of quantitative easing ahead of the US cash equity open today. But that wasn't the big news; the commentary from Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank (Germany's central bank) and a voting member on the European Central Bank's Governing Council, is the key commentary on the day.
Taking the wind out of hopes for tax union, the head of the Bundesbank said that such a move would require significant "changes to European Union treaties", and that a fiscal union still wouldn't can't solve the issues of "high unemployment" and "poor competitiveness." Furthermore, in a hint about his stance on an ECB rate cut but looser monetary policy, Mr. Weidmann said that its still "too soon to speculate" about the ECB offering another longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) and that higher inflation rates in the Euro-zone (which would come after an ECB rate cut, in theory) and that it would diminish the central bank's credibility.
Taking a look at credit, Spanish 10-year notes remain significantly weaker, with the yield rising by 14 7-basis points to 6.835 percent. After the auction, the Italian 10 - year note yield has fallen to 6.118 percent.
5 - Min Chart EURUSD: June 14, 2012

Charts Created using Marketscope - Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The New Zealand Dollar is the top performer (again), with the NZDUSD appreciating by 1.02 percent. The Canadian Dollar is also stronger, up by 0.55 percent against the US Dollar. The Euro has rebounded off of its session lows and has exploded back to the 1.25 exchange rate against the US Dollar, with the EURUSD appreciating by 0.34 percent. The Japanese Yen is also up, with the USDJPY depreciating by 0.25 percent.
24 Hour Price Action

Key Levels: 14: 30 GMT


Thus far, on Thursday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading lower, at 10150.07 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10182.23. The index has traded mostly lower, with the high at 10188.17 and the low at 10147.81.

Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD

10:45 GMT (Global-View.com) June 6 -
Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD (current rate 1.2502)
EURUSD has extended its trade today around 1.25 for the third day in a row, a level that is now the focus and will dictate the tone going forwards. This sets the stage for the ECB meeting where no change in rates is expected, leaving the focus on the Draghi press conference and any hints of an easier policy and/or liquidity measures going forwards. Surprise would be a rate cut and/or fresh liquidity announced at this meeting.
Otherwise, it has so far been an inside but a risk on day that has seen the EURUSD firm with a lag except vs. the weaker USD and JPY. Key levels on top are 1.2542 (Monday?s high) and 1.2624 (last Monday?s high). 1.2470 has flipped between support and resistance, currently the former.
See full report + levels on the GVI Forex Forum

$$EURUSD Short Term Reversal at Technical Confluence

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"The market (S)" alias "RISK" SNAPSHOT - closes 60 minutes

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
"Gold has been a leader in recent weeks, with in background on 30 May and reached on 6 June." The decline of 6 June is 5 waves and the subsequent rally was executed in resistance and appears to be completed a 3 wave correction near current levels.
SPX 500 (fair value) – 60 minutes Bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
To update yesterday noted that "the resistance for the next few days in the S & P are approximately 133 (SPY), 1323 (e-mini futures) and 1325 (index). The area around the lower 5/18 are supported. "SPY hit 132.99 before the close of yesterday, the index reached 1324.30 before closing yesterday and the e-mini achieved 1320.75 European trade today. We are the resistance, which puts in place for a decline Wednesday.
AUDUSD - bar of 60 minutes

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
"I always play the waves through the AUDUSD risk on / off.." I am Rally but less weakness etc and more than force and on. Trade with the greatest trend but decrease size weakness to support and increase the size on the strength of resistance. If the high Sunday night do not have, then I would be not involved in the short side. Focus would move to resistance between 10085 and 10140. »
At the current junction, consider an upward triangle the high 6/7. Even in this scenario, the AUDUSD would trade lower in 9880-9915 to find support.
EURUSD - bar of 60 minutes

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
I launched a short EURUSD this morning to 12540 (according to Twitter @ JamieSaettele). Resistance in the short term also extends in 12590 but pop on retail sales in traffic and 50% decline of 12667 allows was enough to make me short. A loose target for the EURUSD is 12385-12410.

$$EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 06.13

13 June 2012 06: 45 GMT   EUR/USD: The market is in the process of correcting from some violently oversold levels after breaking to yearly lows just under 1.2300. While our overall outlook remains grossly bearish, from here we still see room for short-term upside before a lower top is sought out fresh. Look for the latest positive weekly close to open the door for acceleration into the 1 2800 - 1 3000 area, where fresh offers are likely to re-emerge. Setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2400.

$$EURUSD: Trading the U.S. Retail Sales Report

Time of release: 06/13/2012 12: 30 GMT, 8: 30 EDT
Primary peer Impact: EURUSD
Expected:-0.2%
Previous: 0.1 %
DailyFX Forecast:-0.3% to 0.2%
Why Is This Important Event:
U.S. retail sales are expected to contract 0.2% in May and the downturn in private sector consumption may drag on the dollar as it dampens the outlook for growth. As Fed officials remain cautious optimistic towards the economy, a marked contraction in household spending may spur dovish comments from the FOMC, and the central bank may keep the door open to expand its balance sheet further as the sovereign debt crisis continues to pose a threat to the recovery.
Recent Economic Developments
The Upside
CHHI Chain Store Sales (YoY) (MAY)
U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY F)
The Downside
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (MAY)
Change in Non-Farm Payrolls (MAY)
As household sense picks up, the resilience in private sector consumption may generate an above-forecast print, and the Fed may continue to move away from its easing cycle as the economy gets on a more sustainable path. However, subdued wage growth paired with the ongoing weakness in the labor market may continue to curb household spending, and a downturn in sales may reignite speculation for another round of quantitative easing as the central bank aims to encourage a sustainable recovery. In turn, a dismal report may spark a rebound in the EURUSD, and we may see the pair work its way back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci tracing around 1. 2640-50 as market participants increase bets for QE3.
Potential Price Targets For The Release

As the EURUSD maintains the downward trend from 2011, we remain bearish against the pair, but a dismal sales report may spark another run at the 23.6% Fibonacci tracing from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1. 2640-50 as it raises the scope more easing. However, as the relative strength index fails to maintain the upward trend from earlier this month, the pair looks poised to consolidate ahead of the Greek elections, and an uptick in private sector consumption may push the EURUSD back down wards the 1.2300 as it saps speculation for additional monetary support. For a complete EURUSD technical outlook and scalp levels, refer to this week's Scalp Report.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Forecasts for a drop in retail sales certainly casts a bearish outlook for the greenback, but an above-forecast print could pave the way for a long-term U.S. dollar trade as it dampens expectations for more easing. Therefore, if private spending holds flat or unexpectedly increases from the previous month, we will need a red, five-minute candle following the release to establish a sell entry on two - lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second batch to cost once the first trade hits its mark in order to preserve our gains.
On the other hand, the lack of wage growth paired with the Loescher recovery in the labor market may ultimately lead to a weak sales report, and a marked contraction in household spending may dampen the appeal of the greenback as currency traders maintain for more easing bets. As a result, if consumption tracks lower from the previous month, we will implement the same setup for a long entering trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.
Impact that the U.S. Advance Retail Sales report has had on during the last month USD
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event)
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
April 2012 U.S. Advance Retail Sales

Household consumption increased 0.1% in April, with nine of the 13 major categories advancing, while a separate report showed consumer prices growing at an annualized pace of 2.3% during the same period to mark the slowest pace of growth since February 2011. Although the initial reaction was fairly muted, the slipped below 1.2800 as market participants scaled back their appetite for risk, and we saw even the track lower throughout the North American trade as it ended the day at 1.2728.

€$ EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 06.06

06 June 2012 06: 24 GMT

EUR/USD: The market is in the process of correcting from some violently oversold levels after breaking to yearly lows just under 1.2300. While our overall outlook remains grossly bearish, from here, we still see room for short-term upside before a lower top is sought out fresh. Look for a close back above 1.2545 to open the door for acceleration into the 1 2800 - 1 3000 area, where fresh offers are likely to re-emerge.

(*) EURUSD Higher Ahead at NY Open as Asia and Europe Digest NFPs

04 June 2012 13:39 GMT Fundamental Headlines
- Growth Slowdown Seen for Third Year in U.S. Dodging a Recession – Bloomberg
- S&P 500 Valuation Slips 19% Below ’11 – Bloomberg
- Europe Mulls Major Step toward “Fiscal Union” – Reuters
- Feds Eye MF’s False Promise – WSJ
- Germany Signals Crisis Shift – WSJ
Asian/European Session Summary
The first full week of June brings about new opportunity after a dismal May, in which it is looking increasingly like that the Federal Reserve will be forced to implement another round of stimulus to spur the US economy. Nevertheless, the concerns over the Asian and European growth pictures remain at the forefront of global investors’ minds and the start of the week has been relatively bearish in terms of desire for higher yielding currencies and risk-correlated assets.
Although they’ve since bounced back, the Australian and New Zealand Dollars were leading losses among the majors through early Monday as Asian traders dumped the commodity-linked currencies amid the deteriorating growth picture for the world’s largest economy, the US. The downside pressure in the Asian-Oceanic currencies comes ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s June meeting on Tuesday, in which basis swaps are suggesting another 50-basis point rate cut is coming down the pipe. Given the increasingly negative sentiment surrounding the Australian Dollar, there is capacity for the Aussie to rebound if the RBA only cuts by 25-bps instead.
The Japanese Yen also remains quite stronger, now one of the top performing currencies year-to-date behind the US Dollar and the British Pound. In the first quarter, the Yen depreciated by 10.08 percent against the majors covered by DailyFX (AUD, CAD, CHF, GBP, EUR, NZD, USD); but in the second quarter thus far, the Yen has appreciated by 11.13 percent against the same currencies. Indeed, the flight to safety (in this case, the more liquid currencies like the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar) has hampered efforts by the Bank of Japan and the Japanese Ministry of Finance to stem the Yen’s appreciation. Earlier today, BoJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa said that the BoJ is monitoring “the recent appreciation of the Yen,” while also noting that “the bank carefully monitors the development of the foreign exchange rate from the viewpoint of how it affects the economy through its impact on business sentiment.” While the continued flight to safety will keep demand for the Yen high, it is likely that the BoJ steps in to halt the Yen’s strength, if only momentarily.
Taking a look at credit, US Treasuries have started to come off a bit, with the 10-year Note yield rising back to 1.514 percent ahead of the cash equity open. In Europe, peripheral yields have improved as well, led by Greece and Italy on the longer-end of the curve and by Italy and Portugal on the shorter-end. The Portuguese 2-year note yield dropped by 17.9-bps to 9.552 percent, while the Italian 2-year note yield fell back to 4.100 percent. Undoubtedly the positive developments have been in part due to the positive results of the European Troika’s fourth quarterly review of Portugal’s economic program.
EURUSD 5-min Chart: June 4, 2012

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The New Zealand Dollar has been the top performer, gaining 0.62 percent against the US Dollar to start the week. The Japanese Yen has been the worst performer, with the USDJPY appreciating by 0.20 percent. The Euro’s rally has really picked up steam around the US cash equity open, and the EURUSD is now up 0.46 percent on the day. Quizzically, the Swiss Franc is the second best performer, up 0.49 percent.
24-Hour Price Action

Key Levels: 12:45 GMT


Thus far, on Monday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading lower, at 10211.64 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10257.60. The index has traded mostly lower, with the high at 10271.92 and the low at 10211.64.

> Bear EURUSD should seek Shorts almost 12700

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By Jamie Saettele, strategist technical CMT, SR., may 28, 2012 17: 48 GMT DailyBars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Supporters of the former base channel are now resistance. Comment of last week is still relevant; "deterioration must more likely feelings discharged in the form of a correction, if even next door." In this case, 12724 is resistance. "Price traded on the side for 3 days in which can form the basis for a pop in 12700. Resistance in would present an opportunity to align with the largest bear trend.
LEVELS: 12150 12495 12640 12690 12725 12825

€ EURUSD: Upswing to be Used to Add to Short

25 may 2012 strategist 08: 23 GMT strategy: short to 1.3073 (Avg), targeting 1.2481
Floating profit / loss: + 487 pips
We originally sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the 1.3026 position. The pair sold after forming a ground of candlestick bearish Harami and we have subsequently revised our stop-loss applies on a daly nearly over 1.2865, after prices overcame the second objective. The RSI divergence now suggests a positive stimulus to come, is that we will treat as an opportunity to add to the short position, once the correction is exhausted. 1.2674 Level has been redesigned as a short term resistance.

$ Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows

24 May 2012 02:44 GMT  Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows Euro Drops Across the Board as Market Realizes EU Summit Impotent British Pound and Gilt Yields Hit Despite the BoE’s Steady 8-1 Vote Japanese Yen Continues its Climb after BoJ Avoids Stimulus Clash Australian Dollar Hits Fresh 6 Month Low Against Dollar as Rate, Risk Extend Decline New Zealand Keeping Pace with Aussie’s Pain as Its Own Rate Outlook Tumbles Gold Marks Epic Bounce Off of 10-Month Support Level Dollar Shows Follow Through on Bullish Break, EURUSD at 2010 Lows
There was a distinct difference in performance between basic risk trends and the US dollar. Though the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly tested a new low for the year, it quickly recovered most of its lost ground. In contrast, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index advanced for a second consecutive day to fresh 16-month highs. This conviction was echoed by EURUSD’s slide below 1.2625 (bringing it to its lowest level since July 2010), AUDUSD holding onto six month lows and NZDUSD breaking a multi-year rising trend. Risk aversion keeps this currency on its bullish bearing, but the rebound in US equities can pose a problem. As a liquidity haven, we need aggressive risk aversion to keep the dollar moving.
Euro Drops Across the Board as Market Realizes EU Summit Impotent
The euro dropped against everyone of its major counterparts this past trading session – ultimate safe havens all the way up to high-risk carry currencies. Considering the market was doused in risk aversion through much of the day, it is clear that there was a greater degree of fear surrounding this particular currency than any other. That concern is the deterioration in the financial and economic health of the region it represents. Heading into Wednesday’s session, there was hope that the EU summit that was held in Brussels would provide some meaningful support for Greece and the broader region. That said, every one of the points that could have contributed to recovery were rejected: no Eurozone bonds, no growth measures, no fiscal treaty, no rescue program boosts, but a promise to help Greece if it stays the course. That said, this was disappointing but perhaps not surprising. We need an active catalyst. Perhaps the upcoming PMI readings can play that role.
British Pound and Gilt Yields Hit Despite the BoE’s Steady 8-1 Vote
It is perhaps difficult to appreciate the deteriorating fundamental position of the sterling as we have strong underlying risk trends that are leading high-yield currencies and the euro to greater deleveraging than the pound’s own slide. When there is a wholesale shift away from risky positioning, the sterling outperformers its carry currency counterparts (Australian and New Zealand dollars) as well as its more fundamentally-troubled neighbor (the euro). If we were able to remove these factors, we would better be able to see the struggling that the pound is facing. In the past session, we were reminded of the notable shift that the UK interest rate forecast has taken recently. Not long ago, the BoE was seen as taken a distinctive neutral shift in its policy stance after MPC member Posen withdrew his vote for further bond purchases. In the minutes of the May meeting, we find the vote was once again 8-1 (Posen held neutral). That said, the 10-year Gilt yield is a record low 1.77 percent.
Japanese Yen Continues its Climb after BoJ Avoids Stimulus Clash
There was little chance that policy officials at the Japanese central bank could alter the path of rising yen – that was something that was realized in dramatic form at the previous rate decision in which a 10 trillion yen increase in the asset purchase program roused little reaction from the currency. Perhaps recognizing the diminished utility of increasing its balance sheet with no meaningful payoff for exchange rate impact, the BoJ decided to hold its asset purchases at 40 trillion yen and credit program at 30 trillion. There was some level of concern that a fight would be mounted as the realization that nothing was coming through lead USDJPY (a balanced risk pair) to retreat from 80 soon after. As the European session rolled into US trading hours, the unencumbered yen was picked up by the strong risk aversion sense.
Australian Dollar Hits Fresh 6 Month Low Against Dollar as Rate, Risk Extend Decline
In a distinctly risk-off environment , the Australian dollar was clearly one of the most at-risk currencies amongst the majors. Indeed, the investment currency suffered a sizable hit against its safe haven / funding counterparts. Both AUDUSD and AUDJPY moved to trade at six month lows. However, where capital markets would make the effort to claw back some of their losses through the second half of the New York session, the high-yield Australian dollar would limit its ambitions. We could attribute some of the struggle to the World Bank’s disappointing outlook for Chinese GDP (for which they made distinct connections to Australian GDP through exports), but the more influential element to this bearish drive was deteriorating rate expectations. The outlook for Australian rates has been dovish / bearish for some time, but they grew even more painful this past session. While the probability of a 50bp cut in June eased modestly, the 12-month forecast hit a new 5-month low.
New Zealand Keeping Pace with Aussie’s Pain as Its Own Rate Outlook Tumbles
In the downshift in risk trends through the US session, the New Zealand dollar suffered a critical technical break against the greenback – closing below a rising trendline that has represented the backbone of the NZDUSD’s general drift higher over the past few years. With the overall slump in investor sentiment this past session, this particular decline comes as no surprise. Alternatively, the kiwi’s persistent slide against its Australian counterpart is a little more unusual. While the Australian rate expectations are deteriorating quickly and its sensitivity to risk trends is unsurpassed; the New Zealand currency continues to lose ground. Recent arguments to be made are the renewed expectations for China to bolster growth – considering general risk trends are more finely balanced here. Yet, more likely, the notable shift in rate expectations from neutral to a forecast for tentative marks a bigger shift in tone than perhaps yields suggest. The market is now pricing in a 77 percent probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the next RBNZ meeting and 42 bps worth of reductions over the coming 12 months.
Gold Marks Epic Bounce Off of 10-Month Support Level
Where Tuesday’s about face for gold was a distinct shift in momentum, the real bearish drive for gold happened on Wednesday morning. By mid-New York session, the precious metal was down by as much as 2.2 percent. Had the market close on the low, that would have represented the biggest drop for the market since February 29. However, we didn’t end with this downleg. After the initial decline – leveraged by the US dollar’s own gains – traders were met with the same zone of support between 1535 and 1525 that led to remarkable recoveries three times over the past year (September 26, December 29 and May 16). In other words, extending the larger bearish trend would require a significant upgrade in conviction. From the fundamental backdrop, risk aversion and anti-Euro sentiment is high, while inflation pressures are visibly easing. Under these conditions, the dollar boosts its appeal; but we clearly haven’t crossed the threshold as the metal jumped sharply from its support.
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**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
CBAHIA House Affordability (1Q)
German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)
German Private Consumption (1Q)
German Capital Investment (1Q)
German Construction Investment (1Q)
German Government Spending (1Q)
Trade Balance (Swiss franc) (APR)
French PMI Manufacturing (MAY P)
German PMI Manufacturing (MAY A)
Euro-Zone PMI Composite (MAY A)
German IFO - Expectations (MAY)
German IFO - Business Climate (MAY)
German IFO - Current Assessment (MAY)
BBA Loans for House Purchase (APR)
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P)
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (1Q P)
Total Business Investment (QoQ) (1Q P)
Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders ex Aircrafts (APR)
Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 19)
National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
ECB's Draghi, Visco Speak on Euro Economy
Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy
ECB's Joerg Asmussen Speaks on the Debt Crisis
Fed's William Dudley Speaks on U.S. Economy
|| US Treasury to Sell $29 Bln 7yr Notes
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

$- EURUSD Drops to 2012 Low but Don’t Get Caught Chasing

23 May 2012 10:09 GMT  FXCM Expo Videos
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Afternoon Technicals (all charts)
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This morning’s action may compose the ‘flush’ before a larger correction takes hold. There are no setups to short the USD here with a sensible stop. Sure, the USD may extend a bit beyond current levels but reward/risk on USD longs is no longer favorable (except maybe against the Yen). HUGE levels have given way, most notably the January low at 12623 in the EURUSD. In my experience, the breech of such levels tends to give way to consolidation / corrective action BEFORE the next larger move. Make no mistake, the larger trend is towards USD strength but don’t get caught long USD at bad prices.
I’ll look to identify USD support as corrections unfold in real time but levels to keep in mind are 15890 in GBPUSD, 12870-12900 in EURUSD, 9970-10020 in AUDUSD, 7760 in NZDUSD, and 10060 in USDCAD.
EURUSD 240 Minute

EURUSD 240 Minute

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
GBPUSD 240 Minute

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
NZDUSD 240 Minute

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
USDOLLAR 240 Minute

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

€/$ EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 05.18

18 May 2012 06:37 GMT
EUR / USD: The market remains under severe pressure, and the focus now lies in a direct retest of 1.2625 at least January 2012. Although not ruled out that a test of this level in coming sessions, technical studies are short term oversold and show well the need for some form of corrective rebound, which is a new lower limit requested. Ultimately, however, any increase should now be very well covered by previous resistance at 1.3000 support, in favor of a further slowdown in the medium term, the deeper setbacks in the lower 1.2000 's projects

Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD

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10:25 GMT (Global-View.com) May 7 -
Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD (current rate 1.3031)

I wrote this in Friday's Weathermap and the market unfolded as expected with a gap lower on the opening but has since done some backing and filling on election results that were not a surprise:

In any case, the upside should be limited ahead of the weekend elections in Greece and France + state election in Germany. Risk is for a Monday gap (down) on the results depending on how EURUSD closes the week and how much is already discounted....

This has the focus on whether the gap to 1.3080 can be filled but would have to get back above 1.3050 to expose this level. In any case, watch 1.30 as it will set the bias not only intra-day but going forwards as well. Otherwise, there has been technical damage but would need a close below 1.2973 to suggest the range since late January has been broken.

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EUR/USD rapport technique classique 05.17

May 17, 2012 07: 14 GMT   EUR/USD: the market remains under intense pressure and for the moment emphasis is squarely on an expectation of 2012 January to 1.2625 depressions. While us would not rule out the possibility of a test that level in the next few sessions, technical studies in the short term are well survendus and express a need to form any corrective rebound from which a low high costs is sought. Ultimately however, rallies should now be very well capped by given 1.3000 to low resistance additional medium-term projects of setbacks more deeply in the 1.2000 lower support.

€$ EURUSD: Possible rebound a sales opportunity

We initially sold EURUSD at 1.3121 and added to the position at 1.3026. The pair sold off after putting in a bearish Harami candlestick pattern and we revised our objective to 1.2674 – the 50% Fibonacci expansion level – as well as trailed our stop-loss to breakeven (1.3073) after prices met the initial downside objective. EURUSD is now showing a Spinning Top candlestick above support, hinting a corrective bounce may be ahead. We will treat any advance as an opportunity to add to the short in the days ahead. Initial resistance lines up in the 1.2823-65 area. Alternatively, a break below support exposes the next objective at 1.2483.

!$ EUR/USD Classical Technical Report 05.15

15 May 2012 05:37 GMT 

EUR/USD: The market has finally cleared some key support by 1.3000 and the break opens the door for deeper setbacks over the coming days towards the 2012 lows from January at 1.2620. However, short-term technical studies will need to unwind from oversold readings before we are to see any extended declines below 1.3000, and we recommend looking to sell into rallies into the 1.3000-1.3100 where a fresh lower top is now sought. Look for a potential bounce by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the yearly low-high move which comes in by 1.2800. Ultimately, only back above 1.3300 would delay.

$ EURUSD Falls 1.2770 Greek Government after does not form

may 15, 2012 13: 36 GMT  who said that the Greece was not relevant? After becoming a little later of actors of the market for first months of the year, the May 6 elections catapulted the Greece to the stage of the world for what appears to be the last act of the saga of the Greek sovereign debt. With the Centre, pro-bailout parties, conservative party new democracy and PASOK left party, lost power in fringe, anti-bailout parties, mainly, the extreme-left Syriza, have raised concerns that the Greece could end up leaving the euro. Last week, each major party, first new democracy, then Syriza and PASOK, were given mandates to form a coalition Government. Each failed, leading to the final meeting one today.
However, all built hope that Greek leaders may find common ground was displaced. The rhetoric left and right was standoffish, at least, with the left (Syriza) calling for a moratorium on the debt and the Centre (ND and PASOK) are demanding further austerity measures to receive additional subsidies in the Euro area. Today, the worst fears were realized, when the Greek leadership, announced that no coalition Government was formed in a last-ditch effort, and that new elections could come. It is a low development of the experience of the Euro, as this probably means that the anti-bailout, primarily the Syriza parties, will gather sufficient support to form a coalition on their own. This could result in Greece by default on its debt and leaving the euro entirely - a frightening prospect but objectively possible nevertheless.
EURUSD chart of 1 minute: May 15, 2012
Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Immediately after the news, the Euro has been violently in all, collapsing currency refuge, the Yen and the U.S. Dollar. In fact, against the later, we see that the EURUSD has fallen of 1.2841 for only 1.2770 in twenty minutes after the announcement. Although there was a small rebound, given the seriousness of the problems of the Euro area, it is likely that the continuous sale EURUSD should concerns hit the bond market (which they seem to be in Italian and Spanish yields note 2 years of climbing).