Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish

Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish

12 July 2012 12:55 GMT Talking Points
Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August
The Euro tumbled to a fresh yearly low of 1.2169 amid the weakening outlook for the region, and the pair may continue to track lower over the remainder of the week as the European Central Bank strikes a dovish tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the ECB warned that the downside risks for the region ‘have materialized’ in its monthly report, and went onto say that the fundamental outlook remains clouded by ‘heightened uncertainty’ as European policy makers struggle to stem the risk for contagion.
In turn, ECB board member Jozef Makuch said that the central bank ‘will use all the tools it has already used or new measures’ to shore up the ailing economy, and it seems as though the Governing Council is leaning towards a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as the region faces a threat for a prolonged recession. As the downward trend in the EURUSD continues to take shape, we will maintain our bearish forecast for the pair, and the euro-dollar looks poised to give back the rebound from 2010 (1.1875) as market participants expect to see lower borrowing costs in Europe. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are now pricing an 83% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the August 2 meeting, and we should see the Governing Council continue to embark on its easing cycle as growth and inflation falter.
British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus
The British Pound continued to consolidate on Thursday, with the GBPUSD slipping to a fresh weekly low of 1.5432, and the sterling may continue to give back the rebound from 1.5268 as market participants scale back their appetite for risk. We may see the GBPUSD continue to trade within a broad range as it remains supported by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270, but the Bank of England Minutes on tap for the week ahead may produce a meaningful move in the exchange rate as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Until then, we should see risk trends continue to dictate price action for the GBPUSD, and the pair may weaken further over the remainder of the week as the flight to safety picks up.
U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP
The near-term outlook for the greenback remains bullish as the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) breaks out of the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month, and the reserve currency may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as market sentiment falters. As China’s 2Q GDP report comes into focus, we’re expecting to see growth expand at the slowest pace since 2009, fears of a ‘hard landing’ may continue to sap risk-taking behavior, and the short-term rally in the dollar may gather pace in the coming days as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows.  

Dollar,Breakout,Beginning

Dollar,Breakout,Beginning

12 July 2012 15:30 GMT

 Retail FX trading crowds are now nearly their most aggressively net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen since the USDJPY traded near record-lows in February. The sharp jump in crowd buying underlines the fact that most believe the Japanese Yen is unlikely to challenge fresh highs (USDJPY lows). The Japanese Yen nonetheless stands to strengthen as the Bank of Japan withholds further monetary policy stimulus and markets turn risk-averse.
The retail trading crowd is often ‘right’ at the turns; the SSI showed traders were their most net-long USDJPY on record as the pair bottomed in February. Yet current extremes could just as easily be a precursor for continued declines, and we remain bearish the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen on such one-sided sentiment.
How do we interpret and trade with the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.

Loonie Remains Strong after Canada's April Inflation Rose More than Forecast

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By Trang Nguyen, 18 May 2012 13: 34 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: Canada Consumer Price Index Rise 0.4 Percent in April > the Inflation within Target Encourages Bank of Canada to Preserve its Low Interest Rate Policy throughout 2012 > CAD Remains Higher

Canada's inflation remained stable at 0.4 percent in April for the fourth straight month as rising price pressures on cars and clothing offset easing pressures on energy and gasoline.

Canada Consumer Price Index is at a current level of 122(2), up 0.4 percent from121.7 in the previous month, the Ottawa - based Statistics Canada reported today. As such, the consumer prices remained stable at 0.4 percent for the fourth straight month. The reading exceeds 0.3 percent gain projected, according to the Bloomberg News survey. Over a year prior, the all items index regained to 2.0 percent from 1.9 percent in March.

The rise in year-to-year cost of energy substantially softened to 1.1 percent in April, following 5.1 percent increase in March and 7.2 percent upsurge in February. Similarly, gasoline prices climbed only 3.3 percent last month compared to 6.6 percent and 8.9 percent in the previous two months. Meanwhile, transportation costs surged 3.2 percent in the twelve months to April while the food prices advanced 2.5 percent.

The Bank of Canada's core index rose 0.4 percent on monthly basis and gained 2.1 percent on yearly basis. Those numbers are consistent with the Bank of Canada's forecast last month that consumer prices would advance average 2 percent this quarter and 2.2 percent in the second half of the year.

USDCAD 1-minute Chart: May 18, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader - Prepared by Trang Nguyen

The Canadian dollar gains ground versus most of its major counterparts ahead of an opening bell in North America trade today. The loonie immediately extended advance in the minutes following the Consumer Price Index report. Canada's April inflation meets its central bank target of 2.0 percent, thus indicating low chance of rate hike in near term. As seen from the 1-minute USDCAD chart above, the currency pair fell about 30 pips from 1.0160 to 1.0140. Nonetheless, the greenback quickly saw a correction after thirty minutes, trades at $1.0166 at the time this report was written, higher than its level before the data release.

-Written by Trang Nguyen, DailyFX Research Team for DailyFX.com

To contact Trang, email tnguyen@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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18 May 2012 13: 34 GMT

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EU Market Update: Risk Aversion remains heightened in session; GBP slumps following BOE quarterly inflation report

Wednesday, May 16, 2012 5:51:17 AM TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Risk Aversion remains heightened in session; GBP slumps following BOE quarterly inflation report***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €2.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility €1.6B prior; €788.4B parked in deposit facility v €788.2B prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Apr EU 25 New Car Registrations: -6.9% v -7.0% prior (7th straight monthly decline)
- (TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Confidence: 91.1 v 93.9 prior
- (AT) Austria Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 1.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.4% prior
- (CZ) Czech Mar Current Account (CZK): 16.8B v 13.9Be >- (IT) Italy Mar Total Trade Balance: +€2.1B v -€1.1B prior; Trade Balance EU: €1.6B v €416M prior
- (UK) Apr Jobless Claims Change: -13.7K v +5.0Ke; Claimant Count Rate: 4.9% v 5.0%e
- (UK) Mar Average Weekly Earnings 3M/Y: 0.6% v 1.0%e; Weekly Earnings ex-Bonus 3M/Y: 1.6% v 1.4%e
- (UK) Mar ILO Unemployment Rate: 8.2% v 8.4%e >- (EU) Euro Zone CPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5%e
- (CH) Swiss May Credit Suisse ZEW Expectations Survey: -4.0 v +2.1 prior
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki ) raised 7-Day Lending Rate by 50bps to 5.50%
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar Trade Balance Seasonally Adj: €4.3B v €3.8Be; Trade Balance unadj: €8.6B v €4.0Be
Fixed Income: >- (RU) Russia cancelled its 10-Year OFZ Bonds
- (EU) ECB alloted $300M in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.66% vs. $326.3M prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold €8.0B vs.€7-8B indicated range in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 1017 BTANs, OATs
- Sold €2.505B in 0.75% Sept 2014 BTAN; Avg Yield 0.74% v 0.85% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.97x v 2.29x prior
- Sold €945M in 3.5% Apr 2015 OAT; Avg Yield 0.95% v 1.06% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.58x v 3.0x prior
- Sold €895M in 3.25% Apr 2016 OAT; Avg Yield 1.37% v 2.80% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.97x v 4.50x prior
- Sold €3.651B in 1.75% Feb 2017 BTAN; Avg Yield 1.72% v 1.83% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.04x v 2.69x prior
- (DE) Germany sold €4.107B in 1.75% July 2022 Bund; Avg Yield 1.47% (fresh record low) v 1.77% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.5x v 1.1x
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- China's "Big Four" state-run banks have issued almost no new yuan loans in the first half of May
- Germany and ECB said to be at odds over EFSF guarantees
- UK Claimant Count registers its largest monthly decline since July 2010
- ECB holding a previously scheduled meeting in Frankfurt
***Equities*** >FTSE 100 -1.1% at 5378, DAX -1% at 6335, CAC-40 -0.10% at 3036, IBEX-35 -1% at 6636, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 13,253, SMI -0.05% at 5860
- European equity indices opened the session broadly lower, as indices have been pressured by banks. Additionally, resource-related companies opened lower following cautious comments out of BHP about the outlook for commodity prices. Concerns about Greece have continued to weigh on the markets, following reports from yesterday that the country is expected to hold elections in mid-June. Also, Greek banks have been in focus, amid reports that deposit outflows have accelerated following the recent Greek parliamentary elections. In terms of upcoming event risks, the US Fed is due to release the minutes from its most recent policy meeting later today. Also on Thursday's session, Spain is due to sell 2015 and 2016 bonds.
- UK-listed construction and engineering services company Lamprell [LAM.UK] has declined by over 60%, after disclosing a profit warning. Additionally ,shares of Bovis Homes [BVS.UK] and Land Securities are trading lower, following the release of their respective earnings reports. German names Rheinmetall [RHM.DE], Lanxess [LXS.DE], Prosieben [PSM.DE] and Symrise [SY1.DE] have all been weighed down by ex-dividend factors. In France, EADS [EAD.FR], EADS has gained over 1% following its Q1 earnings release. Swiss luxury watch maker Richemont [CFR.CH] has gained over 4%, as the company reported better than expected FY11 results. Danish shipping name AP Moller Maersk [MAERSKB.DK] has lost over 5% amid concerns about the company's 2012 outlook. Shares of Italian bank, Banca Monte Paschi have lost more than 2%, after the company reported a y/y decline in its Q1 net profit. Monte Paschi also reported a 4.9% sequential rise in its bad loans in Q1.
Speakers: >- Bank of England Releases Quarterly Inflation Report which raised inflation forecast with CPI seen above 2% for the next year or so compared to its Feb forecast of until Q4 2012. The report noted that Inflation report chart shows CPI at around 1.6% in 2 years and at 1.8% in 3 years assuming market interest rate path and AFT steady at £325B
- BoE Gov King stated during Q&A that contingency plans were being discussed for some time with UK Treasury and FSA regarding the euro area. On QE decision he noted that ultimately have to be driven by inflation outlook, last week decision consistent with that idea.
- Germany Fin Min Schaeuble reiterated the view that all wanted Greece to remain in the Euro but the Greek political parties had the choice and it was their responsibility. He stressed that differences between Chancellor Merkel and new French President Hollande were not large and that Germany economic growth was robust because the country was reducing its deficit. Lastly he noted that was working on Financial Transaction Tax (tobin tax) in a smaller group of EU members
- Spain PM Rajoy commented that Spain faced risk of astronomical borrowing costs in an address to Parliament
- Ireland PM Kenny noted that enormous challenges lie ahead; Ireland will continue to meet all commitments
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan stated that he hope to get back to bond market by end 2013 but might not due to uncertainty in Europe. He added that it was not a guarantee that Greece would leave the Euro Zone and maybe Greece needed a referendum whether to stay in the EMU
- Finland PM Katainen: Risk of contagion from Greece as the situation is threatening Spain, Italy and Portugal
- China PBoC Gov Zhou commented that China to steadfastly prevent systemic financial risk
- Poland Fin Min Rostowski commented that he expected there would be some significant weakening of the PLN currency (Zloty) due to Greece fears
- India Central Bank Dep Gov Kahn stated that the RBI was closely watching INR currency volatility and it would take all steps to curb such volatility
- India Central Bank Chakrabarty commented that the RBI would only intervene in FX markets to curb INR volatility
- Russia Central Bank Gov Ignatyev stated that Apr YTD Capital Outflows was $42B and that such outflows remained a serious problem for the economy. The CBR remained determined to hold inflation between 5.0-6.0%
- India Fin Min Mukherjee: Reiterates India's growth story is intact
Currencies:
- Euro zone crisis remain the leading influence in the session and kept the USD well supported against the majors and commodity-related currency pairs. The session began with a heightened amount of risk aversion prevalent but by mid-morning sentiment calmed down. Perhaps that the ECB was holding a previously scheduled conference today on Monetary Policy Conference in Frankfurt helped ease concerns. However some dealers misconstrued it as an 'emergency meeting'
- The EUR/USD continued to hit fresh 4-month lows as it tested 1.2682 in the session. The European peripheral yield was higher with the 10-year Spanish/German Gov't bond spread at 510bps for fresh EMU record. Dealers were on guard whether Moody's would make any cuts in Spanish banking sector after doing so for Italy earlier in the week. The 10-year Italian bond yield pushed firmly above the 6% area but a move towards 7% would heighten concerns and possible re-activate the ECB SMP program. With Greece heading for fresh elections next month, fears of capital flight mounted and yesterday the Greek central bank confirmed that €700M in deposit had been withdrawn in recent days.
- The implication on global growth was also on the minds of traders. China's "Big Four" state-run banks were said to have issued almost no new yuan loans in the first half of May. The AUD/USD pair was suffering not only from euro zone risks, yet also concerns that activity in China's economy may be faltering
- The GBP slumped lower to approach 1.5900 after the BOE inflation report which did raise its short term CPI view but overall remaining in target in 2-3 year time frame
Political/ In the Papers:
- The CBRE Group expects further defaults in European commercial real estate loans due to declining rents and occupancies. The trend is affecting many areas, now including large city centres such as London and Frankfurt. Values are currently down by almost 20% from their peaks in 2007.
- With the concerns related to a possible Greek collapse, the Irish Independent calculated that such an event would cost each Irish resident €380. It added that the true costs would be greater because Ireland would have to deal with a five-year financial crash if Greece were to exit the currency. According to Citi, the loans to Greece now stand at €160B, owed either to the ECB or euro zone countries as a share of the bailout (with Ireland's portion calculated at slightly above 1%, or a little over €380 per person). The independent clarified that the exact figure is difficult to assess due to Ireland's own euro zone loans.
- The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard looked at the risks related to Italian banks noting that the contracting economy is a challenge for domestic banks, as Italian banks are highly exposed to the economy. He also added the contagion risks that Italian banks face in relation to Greece.
- The ECB was said to have cut liquidity support for Greek banks according to the Dutch press. The cut in support was due to Greece holding off on recapitalizing its banking system, although it received €25B in funds for that purpose. At the end of January, Greek banks received €73B in liquidity support from the ECB, although the amount was down by over 50%.
***Looking Ahead***
- 6:00 (PL) Poland to sell New 5-Year Fixed Rate Bonds
- 6:00 (RU) Russia to sell Up to RUB20.0B in 10-Year OFZ Bonds
- 6:00 (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) to sell I/L 2022, 2023 and 2027 Bonds
- (IT) IMF mission visit to Italy
- 6:00 (GR) Greece interim govt expected to be announced; election date
- 6:00 (DE) German Govt Advisor Feld
- 6:00 (PT) Portugal Q1Unemployment Rate: No est v 14.0% prior
- 7:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e May 11th: No est v 1.7% prior
- 7:00 (ZA) South Africa Mar Retail Sales Constant M/M: No est v -2.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.2% prior
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Mar Current Account: No est v -€1.6B prior; Trade Balance: No est v -€838M prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Mar Manufacturing Sales M/M: No est v -0.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Housing Starts: 685Ke v 654K prior; Building Permits: 730K v 764K prior (revised from 747K)
- 9:00 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble speech on crisis themes: University of Aachen
- 9:00 (EU) ECB's Monetary Policy Conference in Frankfurt
- 9:15 (US) Apr Industrial Production: 0.6%e v 0.0% prior; Capacity Utilization: 79.0%e v 78.6% prior; Manufacturing Production: No est v -0.2% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flows
- 12:00 (US) World Bank President Zoellick
- 12:30 (US) Fed's Bullard speaks on US Economy in Louisville, Kentucky
- 12:45 (EU) ECB member Gonzalez-Paramo
- 14:00 (US) Fed Releases Minutes from April 24-25 FOMC Meeting
- 14:00 (US) Minutes of FOMC Meeting
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Trade Balance: No est v $537.2M prior; Imports CIF: no est v $4.5B prior
- 18:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank Gov Simor speaks at EBRD Conference
- 18:00 (HU) Hungary Central Bank VP Kiraly speaks
- 18:00 (EU) EU's Juncker speaks at German Fin Min Schaeuble award ceremony in Aachen, Germany
- 18:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Economists Publish Report
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Q1 Preliminary GDP Annualized: +3.5%e v -0.7% prior; GDP Q/Q: +0.9%e v -0.2% prior; Nominal GDP Q/Q: +1.0%e v -0.5% prior Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

:: Disappointing Data Encourages Risk Aversion as Greece Remains in Spotlight

FOCUS:
*Eurozone industrial production weak in April
*Italian inflation as expected
*Greek headlines continue to suggest political instability, friction with EU
*Euro looks to North American open for possible rally
A rough session for economic data drew to a close today as weak Eurozone data dented confidence in the single currency. April industrial production was weaker than expected on all fronts, despite upward revisions to the previous figures.
\
The numbers underscored the Eurozone’s deep-rooted growth issues, as the region’s leaders attempt to juggle lagging growth, burdensome sovereign debt, and inflation’s ever-increasing threat.
Meanwhile, Italian inflation numbers and other minor economic releases were as expected. Italy remains beset by austerity measures imposed by the German-dominated European Union. The latest steps out of Rome are intended to reduce unsustainable Italian debt levels, but have also negatively affected consumer confidence.
Fundamental focus remained on Greece as the verbal battle between Athens and EU paymaster Germany escalated. In a last-ditch effort to form a government, the leader of the Greek left-wing Syriza party today requested meetings with the leaders of all parties. The leader of moderate-left party Kouvelis has stated he will not take part in a coalition government without the Syriza party.
German Finance Minister Schaeuble today called Greece’s current situation “dreadfully difficult,” adding that the ECB can’t keep the Euro stable using monetary policy alone.
European bond spreads widened today as the negative headlines highlighted the global risk-off mood. The Euro weakened against the US Dollar, and was seen pressing towards the yearly lows by 1.2625

$$ US Dollar Remains Strong despite April ISM Non-Manufacturing Decelerates

THE TAKEAWAY:U.S. non-manufacturing activity grew less than expected in April but > Business activity, new orders, employment growth and prices all decelerated > USD remains strong versus major peers
U.S. economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector continued to expand at a slower pace in April as sale has slightly improved, business conditions has leveled off, and fuel and food continued to be a challenge.
The report released by Non-manufacturing Institute of Supply Management (ISM) report showed that its April non-manufacturing index disappointingly declined to 53.5 percent from 56.0 percent registered in March. The print is well below consensus forecast of 55.3 percent, according to seventy-four economists polled by Bloomberg News survey.
The Business Activity index, which is considered the most important in 10 sub-indexes reported, slipped to 54.6 percent, 4.3 percentage points lower than the 58.9 percent reported in March. This corresponds with survey responses that “business is slowing and projections for the rest of the year are being lowered”. Similarly, the New Orders index fell 5.3 percent to 53.5 percent as a result of contraction in four industries including mining, utilities, health care and public administration.
Employment index, which rose 1 percent to 56.7 percent in March, unexpectedly decline decreased by 2.5 percent to 54.2 percent, pointing to slower pace of job creation. Additionally, the Prices index tumbled 10.3 percent to 53.6 percent, suggesting price increase at a significantly slower rate in April compared to March. Nonetheless, respondents remain concerned about rising fuel costs and the impact on shipping, transportation and petroleum-based product costs.
EURUSD 1-minute Chart: May 3, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Tzu-Wen Chen
The greenback remained strong versus most of its major currency counterparts after the lower-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing report. As seen on the 1-minute EURUSD chart above, the currency pair dropped approximately 30 pips from 1.3180 to 1.3150. At the time this report was written, the euro saw some correction, trades at $1.3160.

$$$ USD Outlook remains optimistic on FOMC, Euro bearish Formation in Focus

24 April 2012 analyst 14: 00 GMT Talking PointsUS dollar: Fed to maintain the current policy, soften your Euro Dove: Spain, Italy Face, rising costs of funding - descending Triangle rest play pound sterling: Hits of the high annual costs before of the Dollar of us GDP for the United Kingdom 1 q: Fed to maintain the current policy, soften your Dove
The greenback came under pressure from the decision of interest rates FOMC, with the Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) give back the night advance to 9 947, but the decision to rate on tap for tomorrow may support the currency reserve that the Committee away from its relaxation cycle. While the FOMC widely expected to maintain its current policy in April, lot fresh rhetoric of Central Bank coupled with the updated growth forecasts and inflation can strengthen our optimistic appeal for the USD as the Fed leaders take note of the more robust recovery.
In turn, we could attend the Committee begin to discuss a strategy of provisional output as fundamental prospects for the United States resumed, but the President of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke may keep the door open to develop policies more that the sovereign debt crisis continues to pose a threat to the global financial system. Nevertheless, as the switches of the Fed is preparing, the shift in the Outlook for the policy must lead the higher of the greenback in 2012, and we should see the bullish formation on the USDOLLAR continue to take shape as it excludes a lower about 9 900. Therefore, we always look to see another run at 78.6% Fibonacci allows 10 118, and the fundamental principles that come out of the global economy should be more important in the conduct of the price action as the Fed seems to conclude its policy of zero interest rates.
Euro: Spain, Italy Face increased costs of funding - descending Triangle remains at stake
The Euro advanced to 1.3190 in the rise in risk taking behaviour, but the rebound is likely to be of short duration such as reviving the costs of funding through the European periphery raises the threat of contagion. Indeed, the performance related to the Spain and the Italy of debt continued to grow more than Governments operated the overnight bond market, and the ongoing upheaval in the area continues to inspire a vision impaired for the EURUSD as failure of European political decision-makers to restore the confidence of investors. Governments to operate under the single currency become more and more dependent on monetary aid, the European Central Bank may face increased pressure to further develop the monetary policy, but the wait and see approach by the Council of Governors may limit the appeal of the Euro as there seems to be a growing split within the group. As the formation of the EURUSD down continues to pan out, we should see the pair of lower track going in may, and the entering maintains a bond risk strong action price approach of the apex of the triangle down.
Pound sterling: affects high annual fees before of 1 q UK GDP.
Sterling extended in advance from earlier this month, with the GBPUSD rallying to a fresh 1.6163 annual Summit, and the sterling may enjoy in the next 24 hours of trading the economic role must encourage improved prospects for the United Kingdom as the report of the first quarter GDP advance is expected to show the economy to return to growth, a strong footprint could trigger a race to the 23.6% Fib of the eyes of low to high around 1.6250 and the sterling 2009 loan to appreciate further in 2012 as the Bank of England seems to conclude its relaxation cycle. As the GBPUSD maintains upward trend channel earlier this year, we expect to see high costs in may, but we will keep a close eye on the territory of surachat strength relative index of the approaches. Nevertheless, we should see former resistance around Act 1.6000 as new as the trend in the GBPUSD gathers pace and the sterling may surpass against its major counterparts in the rest of the year of change in Outlook accessories policy interest rate expectations.
-Written by David Song, currency analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @ DavidJSong
To be added to David electronic distribution list, send an email with the subject "Distribution list" line to dsong@dailyfx.com.
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Loonie Remains Strong as Canadian CPI Softened, Leading Indicators Advanced in March

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THE TAKEAWAY: Canada Consumer Price Index Increased 0.4 Percent on Monthly Basis and 2.0 Percent on Yearly Basis in March, Leading Indicators Rose 0.4 Percent> Soft Inflation may Encourage Bank of Canada to Preserve its Low Interest Rate Policy throughout 2012>CAD Remains Higher

Consumer Price Index

Canada’s inflation has softened in March on slower price pressures for food and energy, dampening expectations for a rate hike in near term.

The consumer price index advanced 0.4 percent last month, following 0.4 percent rise in February, the Ottawa-based Statistics Canada reported today. The reading fell short of 0.5 percent gain anticipated,according to the Bloomberg News survey. Over a year prior, the all items index fell back to 2.0 percent from 2.6 percent in February. This 0.7 percentage point difference was mainly triggered by slower year-over-year increases in prices for food and energy.

The year-to-year cost of energy mounted 5.1 percent in March, following a 7.2 percent gain in the previous month, among which gasoline prices eased to 6.6 percent last month after climbing 8.9 percent in February. Electronic costs increased 5.3 percent compared to 8.7 percent in the prior month. Meanwhile, the food prices advanced 2.2 percent in the twelve months to March, after surging 4.1 percent in February. This slower increase was the result of month-over-month decline in food prices last month.

The Bank of Canada’s core index rose 0.3 percent on monthly basis and gained 1.9 percent on yearly basis. Year-over-year price pressured eased in March mainly due to slower price increases for electricity and price declines in woman’s clothing.

Leading indicators

Another report issued by Statistics Canada at the same time today showed that the Canada’s composite leading indicators rose for the ninth straight month in February on improvement in financial and housing sectors. The index surged 0.4 percent last month amid consensus forecast of 0.5 percent gain from Bloomberg News survey. Meanwhile, February reading was upwardy revised to a gain of 0.7 percent from an advance of 0.6 percent initially reported.

The composite leading indicator comprised of ten components which significantly affect cyclical activity in the economy and together represent major categories of Gross Domestic Product. Eight of ten components registered gains in March compared to six in February.

The financial components remained positive since both stock index and money supply witnessed the sizable gains in March. Likewise, the housing component recovered on advances in both existing home sales and starts. Meanwhile, manufacturing components showed mixed results with a gain of the ratio of shipments to inventories offset by decline in new orders.

USDCAD 1-minute Chart: April20, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Trang Nguyen

The Canadian dollar gains its footing versus most of its major trading partners ahead of an opening bell in North America trade today. The Consumer Price Index and Leading Indicators reports released today failed to trigger a noticeable volatility in the loonie. As seen from the 1-minute USDCAD chart above, the currency pair fluctuated between the range of 0.9910 and 0.9925 after the release. At the time this report was written, the U.S. dollar trades at C$0.9915.

--- Written by Trang Nguyen, DailyFX Research Team for DailyFX.com

To contact Trang, email tnguyen@dailyfx.com

View the original article here

European market update: UK CPI a bit above expectations but remains on a declining trend; IMF reiterates that global situation is not as dire but must remain vigilant

Tuesday, March 20, 2012 6:36:20 AM TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: UK CPI a bit above expectations but remains on a declining trend; IMF reiterates that global situation is not as dire but must remain vigilant***Economic Data***

- (EU) ECB: €11.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €11.8B prior; €765.2B parked in deposit facility vs. €758.8B prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FI) Finland Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 8.0%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Leading Indicator: 132.9 v 132.3 prior
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Export Orders Y/Y: +17.6% v +13.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Jan Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 4.3% v 5.8%e
- (CH) Swiss Q4 Industrial Production Q/Q: +7.9% v +2.6%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.0%e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Confidence: -39 v -35e
- (ES) Spain Jan Bad Loan Ratio at 7.91% v 7.62% prior Dec reading
- (GR) Greece Jan Current Account: -€1.5B v -€2.2B prior
- (IS) Israel Mar Inflation Forecast: 2.6% v 2.4% prior
- (IS) Israel Feb Money Supply Y/Y: +0.7 v -0.8% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.5% prior
- (UK) Feb CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.3%e (lowest since Nov 2010); Core CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e (lowest since Nov 2009) - (UK) Feb RPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.5%e; RPIX Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e; Retail Price Index: 239.9 v 239.4e
Fixed Income: - (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2018, 2026 and 2031 Bonds
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR7.3T vs. IDR6.0T indicated in 5-Year and 20-year bonds
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK5.4B in 2021 and 2039 Bonds
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.05B vs.€4.5-5.5B indicated range in 12-month and 18-month Bills
- Sold €3.6BB in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.418% v 1.899% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.3x prior; Max Yield 1.473% v 1.949% prior
- Sold €1.45B in 18-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.711% v 2.308% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.9x v 2.88x prior; Max Yield 1.770% v 2.395% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €1.3B v €1.0B in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield 4.25% v 4.61% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.69x v 2.70x prior
- (EU) ECB allots €59.5B vs. €42.2B prior in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 1.0%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield 7.26% v 7.25% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- BHP exec: China iron ore growth is flattening out
- RBA: Appropriate for interest rates to stay at current levels
- UK CPI a bit above expectations but YoY at lowest level since Nov 2010
***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.90% at 5906, DAX -1.2% at 7070, CAC-40 -1.1% at 3537, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 8555, FTSE MIB -0.80% at 16,999, SMI -0.50% at 6300
- European shares were still trading in negative territory ahead of US housing starts due out in NY morning. Automakers were pressuring the market as China's association of automakers expect vehicle delivers to grow only 5% from 8% prior.
Metro [MEO.DE] reported EBIT and Revenues in line with analysts' expectations and forecast a flat profitability but higher sales. Company also noted that macroeconomic conditions have worsened noticeably compared to 2010.
Speakers: - IMF Chief Lagarde commented that the global situation was not as dire as it was three months ago but vulnerabilities still needed to be addressed. Financial reforms were necessary to avoid growth threat. On rebalancing theme she noted that China's shift to consumption can be gradual while encouraging FDI should be key priority for India
- ECB member Nowotny commented in an online chat that he saw a multi-speed Europe to 2014 period. He added that one must carefully observe the fx loan development in Hungary
And reiterated that Portugal was not the same as Greece and is in better shape
- Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) amended its forecasts for the second time this month citing the current economic climate to continue into H2. The ECB LTRO operation had not solved the underlying issue of the weak European financial sector. Dutch economy would perform moderately in 2012-15 period due to high unemployment, low consumption and declining housing prices. Downside risks include, budget cuts, worsening of the EU debt crisis and bank deleveraging. It cautioned that the size of the Dutch economy would not exceed Q1 2008 level until the 2014 period
- India Central Bank Dep Gov Gokarn commented that internationalization of INR currency was not a strategic goal and the RBI was not actively planning strategic currency diversification. The RBI favored a gradual opening of the capital account. A sharp decline in commodity prices might create room for both fiscal and monetary policy but it was too early to decide on policy based upon the new CPI indicator. Oil price was one of many factors in determining RBI inflation policy
- China PBoC researcher Ji Min stated that China should purchase additional EFSF bonds. He noted that such bonds have stable returns and purchasing the debt could improve trade ties with Europe.. Lastly he noted that European banks were trading at attractive valuations
- Former PBoC Advisor Xia Bin commented that China should maintain its prudent monetary policy stance and not loosen its monetary policy even if the economy slowed. He expected GDP to avg 7% for next 5-years and believed that a China hard landing was impossible. Lastly he expected the CNY currency (yuan) to become fully convertible by 2020
- China Central Bank (PBoC) Q2 survey found less dissatisfaction with price levels. Approx 63% of households thought consumer products were too high vs. 69% prior Q1 survey. The survey also showed that 14.1% of respondents wished to buy an apartment over the next three months, the lowest level since 1999
- Czech Central Bank Hampl commented that the central bank should keep its loose monetary conditions as inflation was not a reason to hike rates. He stressed that the Czech economy lacked the characteristics of demand-pull inflation
- IATA cut its 2012 airline net profit guidance view to to $3.0B from $3.5B prior citing the oil price rise since December.
Currencies:
- Europe's initial focus was on China. First after BHP exec China iron ore growth was flattening out. Then dealer chatter surfaced of 'unrest and demonstrations' in Beijing coupled into that various blogs noted of 'unusual troop movements' and numerous army vehicles around Beijing. The situation was explained that the extra police activity was due an expected visit from a high level dignitary from North Korea. Nonetheless the USD opened the European session on a firmer footing
- The JPY maintained a soft tone in the session. The EUR/JPY cross trade above 110.70; highest level since the Oct 31st BOJ solo FX intervention
- The GBP saw an initial bounce after its CPI data a bit above expectations but the YoY reading were at their lowest level since Nov 2010. The EUR/GBP cross moved lower to test 0.8320 area. GBP/USD was relatively steady at 1.5855 area.
Political/ In the Papers:
- Former ECB's Bini-Smaghi warned Ireland against changing the terms of the Anglo bailout. The Irish press reported that Bini-Smaghi thought that Ireland would be 'shooting itself in the foot' if it changed the terms of the bailout in a way that is not 'consistent' with the rescue program.
- The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) amended its recent deficit-to-GDP forecasts, notably lowering the 2012 deficit-to-GDP figure to 4.6% from the prior 4.5%. It sees the current economic climate to continue into the second half, with the economy to perform moderately in 2012-15 period due to high unemployment, low consumption and declining housing prices
- Ahead of the UK budget announcement, the FT reported that economists expect the OBR to slightly raise its 2012 forecast for growth of 0.7% to approx 0.8%, and will not predict a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Treasury officials indicated some relief that the forecasts are drifting in line with private sector forecasts, and thus expect no surprises in the data which will negatively affect the bond markets.
- Accountants warned the Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne that plans to cut the 50p tax could cost the treasury billions, as top earners may delay income until the rate is reduced. They also suggest that instead of deferring the measure, the Chancellor should immediately reduce the top rate to 45p or risk losing tax revenues, incurring higher borrowing costs and compounding the 50p tax fiasco.
***Looking Ahead***
- (GR) Greek €14.4B in bond redemption
- (IS) Israel Feb Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Trade Balance: No est v -€4.6B prior
- 7:00 (UK) Mar CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -5e v -3 prior; Trends Selling Prices: 13e v 10 prior
- 7:00 (EU) EFSF to sell €2.0B in 6-month bills
- 7:30 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 8:00 (EU) ECB to drain €218.0B in 7-Day Term Deposits to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP)
- 8:30 (US) Feb Housing Starts: 700Ke v 699K prior; Building Permits: 686Ke v 682K prior (revised from 676K)
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (PL) Note: Poland Jan. and Feb. Core CPI will be released on the same day
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Feb Core Inflation M/M: No est v % prior; Y/Y: No est v % prior; Core Inflation Y/Y: 2.7%e v % prior
- 9:15 (EU) EU's Barroso with Swiss Fin Min Widmer-Schlumpf
- 10:00 (EU) China's Ambassador to EU speaks at Brussels Think Tank
- 10:00 (US) US Tsy Sec Geithner
- 10:00 (EU) ECB member Praet
- 10:00 (EU) ECB member Weldmann
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Consumer Confidence: No est v -20 prior
- 10:00 (EU) ECB Forex Reserves w/e Mar 16th: No est v €249.7B prior
- 10:30 (IT) Italy PM Monti meets for labor talks
- 10:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with Swiss Fin Min Widmer-Schlumpf
- 10:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2027-2060 Gilts in reverse auction
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.75-2.25B in Notes
- 11:00 (EU) EU's Ashton
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico weekly international reserves
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar in Washington DC
- 12:45 (US) Fed' Chairman Bernanke gives lecture at George Washington University
- 14:00 (UK) BOE member Dale
- 16:00 (CA) Quebec Fin Min Bachand gives 2012-12 budget
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
- 17:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks in St. Louis, Missouri
- (US) Republican Illinois Primary
- (UK) Queen Elizabeth Addresses Parliament for Diamond Jubilee
- (EU) EBA, Consultation on Supervisory Reporting Standards Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing. 

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk on sentiment remains in vogue

Wednesday, February 08, 2012 5:47:22 AM TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk on sentiment remains in vogue***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €1.9B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.8B prior; €495.4B parked in deposit facility vs. €503.4B prior

- (CH) Swiss Jan Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.5%e; Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adj: 3.1% v 3.1%e - (DE) Germany Dec Current Account: €19.3B v €15.2Be; Trade Balance: €12.9B v €13.; Exports M/M: -4.3% v -1.0%e; Imports M/M: -3.9% v +0.8%e
- (FR) Jan Bank of France Business Sentiment: 96 v 96e
- (FR) France Dec Central Govt. Balance: -€90.8B v -€90.8Be
- (CZ) Czech Jan Unemployment Rate: 9.1% v 9.1%e
- (ES) Spain Dec Industrial Output WDA Y/Y: -3.7% v -5.7%e; Industrial Output NSA Y/Y: -6.9% v -7.0% prior
- (DK) Denmark Dec Current Account (DKK): 9.1B v 6.5Be; Trade Balance (ex-shipping): 6.0B v 6.5Be
- (HU) Hungary Dec Preliminary Trade Balance: €352.1M v €430.0Me
- (TR) Turkey Dec Industrial Production WDA M/M: +2.7% v -2.2% prior; Y/Y:3.8% v 5.3% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 3.7% v 2.8%e
- (PH) Philippines Dec M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.3 v7.2% prior
- (PH) Philippines Dec Bank Lending Y/Y: 16.4% v 19.3% prior; Bank Lending Net of RRPs Y/Y: 19.3% v 22.5% prior
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) leaves 7-day Lending Rate unchanged at 4.75%
- (IT) Italy Dec Private Sector Deposits Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.7% prior (third straight month of declines) - Bank of Italy:
- (ZA) South Africa Jan SACCI Business Confidence: 97.1 v 99.1 prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FGV Inflation IGP-DI: 0.3% v 0.3%e
Fixed Income:
- (EU) ECB allotted $4.1B in 7-Day USD Liquidity Tender at fixed 0.61% vs $3.7B prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK2.5B in 2022 Bonds; Yield 1.909%
- (DE) Germany sold €3.29B in 0.75% Feb 2017 BOBL; Avg Yield 0.91% v 0.90% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 2.8x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Japan registers its smallest current account surplus in 15 years
- ECB willing to exchange Greek bonds with EFSF but contingent on the success of current talks over the new bailout and debt restructuring.
Equities: FTSE 100 +0.20% at 5901, DAX +0.60% at 6796, CAC-40 +0.50% at 3426, IBEX 35 +0.40% at 8880, FTSE MIB +1.5% at 16,741, SMI +0.50% at 6185
- European shares were up among optimism that Greek debt deals are continuing to progress. Reports from Greek press noted that the PSI deal is now completed. The coupon would be 3% to 2020. Greek political leaders are expected to meet later in the day and are expected to agree on austerity measures. On the other hand, Greece PM is also meeting individually with ECB, EU and IMF.
- In individual names, Sanofi [SAN.FR] dropped about 2% after issuing a profit warning for 2012. Due to generic competition, Sanofi expects profit to drop up to 15% in 2012. Vestas [VWS.DK] also declined after reporting a significant decline in its EBIT and announcing the resignation of its CFO. Synngenta [SYNN.CH] declined over 1% after missing analysts' expectations for both net and revenues. However, company noted that it expected sustained growth in sales and EBITDA.
Speakers: - Greek press noting that PSI deal was now completed. The average coupon would be around 3.6% and incur a 50% nominal haircut (as previously speculated). Bondholders would receive 15% in cash and the rest in a Greek bonds. By Wed next week they were going to publish the list of 80 Greek bonds that are going to participate in the PSI plus the loans of the Greek banks.
- EU Commission commented that it was not there yet on Greek deal
- EFSF's Frankel commented that it would probably play large role in Greece's needs and stated that the PSI deal needed "to be finalized". Leverage looked to implement two options.
- EU started 2012 with a budget deficit of €11B
- Greece Jan budget revenues were said to decline 7% y/y vs. planned target for an increase 8.9%. The article noted that value-added tax receipts posted an 18.7% decline y/y. The article went on noting that according to the current data, the 2012 budget would certainly have to be revised soon, given that the original estimate for a contraction of 2.8 percent is now raised to 3.5-4 percent of gross domestic product
- ECB official Papadia: Seeing some tentative indications of economic stabilization; can say mission accomplished regarding bank liquidity
- Spain said to be planning to tap of the 5.85% Jan 2022 benchmark bond
- S&P offical Hinrichs commented that Germany could not necessary export fiscal recipe to stressed euro-zone states noting that saving alone was not enough as growth impulses were mentioned too little. He refuted the concept that what was good for Germany would also good for Europe
- German Bundesbank official Lautenschlaeger reiterated the view that there were no indications of a credit 'crunch' in Germany
- Hungary might begin discussions with IMF by early part of March for the precautionary credit line
- Sweden Central Bank (Riksbank) published corporate survey results which saw the business climate worsening with major risks. Companies were noting of a downturn in operations and cutback due to weaker economic climate
Currencies:
- The USD was initially softer across the board as risk appetite maintained a firm footing amid continued hopes that Greece was close to agreeing a deal that would ensure the next bailout payment.
- The EUR/USD probed the 1.33 neighborhood during the early part of the session and remained above the pivotal Jan high of 1.3233 and possibly embarking for mush higher levels if history is a guide. The pair retreated back to its opening levels of 1.3250 ahead of the NY morning.
- JPY maintained a soft tone. The EUR/JPY cross hit 7-week highs above 102.75 while USD/JPY held above the 77 handle. The question remained whether corporate hedging would take advantage of the recent JPY weakness ahead of the fiscal year-end in March.
Political/ In the Papers:
- Former NTMA Chief Michael Somers claimed investors would not buy Irish bonds due to the poor credit rating per reports in the Irish Independent. In the radio interview Mr. Somers said Ireland was likely to require a second bailout since credit rating agencies cut the rating too low to be able to sell bonds to international investors. Michael Somers was the NTMA chief until 2009, and is currently the deputy chairman of government owned AIB.
- The German press hinted that Greek losses may cost Germany €25B citing the the publication's own calculation, and those of German think tank IfW. With discussions occurring at the moment, which include a waiver of a portion of the aid granted to Greece, the losses may increase.
- The Global Head of Sovereign Ratings at Fitch Stringer said that he does not expect China to provide lots of funds to the EU bailout fund. A large investment in the EFSF by China could be risky, as the Chinese government could lose money if the fund is downgraded.
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard commented on how some EU officials have become more willing to consider a Greek exit from the EU. Recent comments by EU Commission Vice President Nellie Kroes said, "It is not the end of the world if someone leaves the euro zone." And according to Greece's EU commissioner Maria Damanaki, contingency plans are under way for a Greek withdrawal. Pritchard noted in the article that Greece leaving the EMU is now a 50:50 event.
- The FT reported that banks increased their collateralized mortgage obligations (CMO) holdings by $82B in the first 9-months of 2011 to $479B citing FDIC data. The proportion of CMOs on the balance sheets of banks increased by nearly half a percentage point to 3.47% over the period. US Treasuries, on the other hand, declined by 0.17 percentage points between end-2010 and Q3 2011 to 1.25% ($173B). It was added that unlike the subprime collateralized debt obligations of the financial crisis, the majority of the CMOs being purchased today by banks are composed made up of mortgages backed by the US government.
Germany's Finance Minister Schaeuble was said to be mulling the idea of delaying a majority of new Greek aid to maintain pressure for further austerity measures, or possibly even prepare for a default. The delay would be applied to the €100B portion of the aid package. Mr. Schaeuble is seeking to break up the new bailout aid into two segments. The second €30B portion designated for the Greek banks that participate in the private sector may be released in days. The report by FT Deutchland added that Mr. Schaeuble discussed this plan with the Dutch and Finnish finance minister. FT Deutchland did not specify its sources.
- Troika officials were reported to be seeking individual meetings with Greek leaders. The officials were likely to hold talks with each of them individually to obtain their explicit commitment to the measures. The new loan agreement would be submitted to Parliament on Friday and voted on several days later. During the European session various Greek party official confirmed that the Troika draft documents were received. As a reminder, the three Greek coalition party leaders are due to meet the prime minister on Wednesday to finalize the measures the government will have to adopt to receive further loans.
***Looking Ahead***
- (PL) Poland Central Bank Interest Rate decision: Expected to leave the Base Rate unchanged at 4.50%
- 6:00 (CL) Chile Jan CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: 4.3%e v 4.4% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: No est v 0.7% prior
- 6:00 (EU) EU issues First Alert Mechanism Report on Macro-Imbalances
- 7:00 (UK) Prime Minister's Question Time in House of Commons
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Feb 3rd: No est v -2.9% prior
- 8:00 Greece PM said to be meeting with party officials
- 8:15 (CA) Canada Jan Housing Starts: 194.0Ke v 199.9K prior (revised from 200.2K)
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Posts Currency Flows' Data
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Jan Commodity Price Index M/M: No est v -0.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -0.4% prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventory data
-10:30 (US) Fed's Williams speaks on economy in San Ramon, California
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $24B in 10-Year Notes
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan Producer Price Index Y/Y: 0.7%e v 1.7% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Jan Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 4.0%e v 4.1% prior Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

Liam Neeson Tops Box Office, But Katherine Heigl Remains Relevant [Box Office]

It should come as no surprise that The Grey AKA Liam Neeson Fights Some Goddamn Wolves topped the box office on Friday. The Hollywood Reporter predicts an $18 million weekend, which would be more impressive if it weren't competing against so many shitty movies. In second place, the Katherine Heigl vehicle One for the Money, which has the distinct disadvantage of no wolves and a fairly contentious star. Even Heigl, at one point, admitted that no one liked her.
In case you were wondering, One for the Money currently boasts a 0% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. Naturally, most critics are attacking Heigl's performance. Boxoffice Magazine's David Ehrlich writes, "Katherine Heigl will not rest until every last person on earth is a misogynist." RedEye's Matt Pais may be the first film critic in history to suggest Snooki would have been better suited for a role.
And yet, people continue to see Katherine Heigl movies. What's interesting is the way this weekend has pitted her against Liam Neeson, an actor who often makes less-than-great films but is, by most accounts, fun to watch kicking ass. Reviews for The Grey are much more favorable — by contrast, it's currently at 77% — but the focus is often on Neeson's awesomeness. In Jeff Meyers' review for The Detroit Metro Times, he admits that the appeal of Neeson's character is primarily the actor.

Neeson is a master of brooding badassery in a role that might've gone to Charles Bronson 40 years ago. Though his character could use more shading and depth, the actor brings both stature and gravitas, elevating his role as both survivor and reluctant savior.

So Liam Neeson can fight off wolves — and weak scripts. I haven't seen The Grey, so perhaps that's unfair. I'm just saying, he and Heigl come with some pretty distinct associations that seem to dwarf their respective movies.