Gold range is at risk amid Bernanke testimony, Fed’s beige book

 Fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral Trade is modest fixed gold at the end of this week with the precious 0.59% by the close of trade Friday ahead. Prices remained largely within a clearly defined range almost nine weeks now when participants try to assess market with gold of seemingly broad risk-weighted assets since the end of June to track future monetary policy by global central banks. Gold bars of the 20-tägige correlation with the S & P-500 has currently highest reached since November 2010 is 0.72 and the metal likely to cope with current range as markets continue to growing concern over global growth prospects.
On Wednesday, the FOMC Protocol offered added little hope for investors who eagerly greater calls expect additional financial support were. In fact continue to the majority in the Committee little room for one more large-scale asset program with the minutes revealed that only "a few members said, more impulse would probably be needed." As the fresh batch of the Central Bank the chance for QE3 dampens rhetoric increased the displacement of the policy Outlook the attractiveness of the dollar, which will limit expected to be substantial progress in the gold price in the meantime. A look at the next week, dealers will loans be a great ear for remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, he before Bank Committee on Tuesday and the House witnessed financial services Committee on Wednesday. However, investors may overlook Bernanke notes before the Fed beige book, which is scheduled for publication on Thursday at 1800GMT and maybe we see the twelve districts after positive assessment of last month highlight improvements in the Fed further continuing the report. However, if the report shows added to signs of strains on economic activity, was speculation for further relaxation of the Central Bank keep gold prices well supported as the call for the yellow metal as a store of value increases prosperity.
From a technical perspective, gold is in the consolidation of the last nine weeks remained, as prices in the apex of the triangle formation within the range between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci extensions, that September and February of highs at $1640 to $1545 or taken to consolidate. Break below the 61.8% enlargement succeeding eyes land at $1500 and the mouth of July 2011 lows and 78.6% extension at $1480. interim resistance is at $1600 with a break on the heights in relief of 1625 in the short term more downside pressure July. In other words, we break out the several months range neutral remain at these levels until one. -MB

$USD Slides Following China Rate Cut, All Eyes On Bernanke Testimony

07 June 2012 13:30 GMT Talking Points
U.S. Dollar: Correction Gathers Pace On China Rate Cut, All Eyes On Bernanke Euro: RSI Carving Upward Trend, Spain Faces Higher Finance Costs British Pound: Testing Former Support, BoE Holds Current Policy U.S. Dollar: Correction Gathers Pace On China Rate Cut, All Eyes On Bernanke
The greenback weakened further on Thursday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) slipping to a fresh weekly low of 10,143, and the rise in risk sentiment may continue to dampen the appeal of the reserve currency as market participants see the international community increasing its effort to tackle the debt crisis. Indeed, the People’s Bank of China lowered its one-year lending rate by 25bp, which will take effect on June 8, and it seems as though the world’s second-largest economy will continue to embark on its easing cycle as the debt crisis continues to dampen the outlook for global growth.
As market participants turn their attention to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony in front of Congress, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric is likely to heavily impact the USD, and a slew of dovish commentary may further weaken the greenback as market participants increase bets for another round of quantitative easing. However, as Fed officials continue to take note of the more robust recovery, it will be increasingly difficult for the central bank head to justify QE3, and we may see Mr. Bernanke strike a more balanced tone for monetary policy as the recovery gradually gathers pace. In turn, we will pay close attention to his fundamental assessment for the U.S. economy, and we may see the dollar regain its footing should the Fed chairman strike an improved outlook for growth and inflation.
Euro: RSI Carving Upward Trend, Spain Faces Higher Finance Costs
The Euro rallied to 1.2610 amid the rise in risk-taking behavior and the rebound in the EURUSD may turn into a larger correction as the global movement to ease policy helps to prop up market sentiment. Indeed, Spain sold EUR 2.07B in bonds yielding 6.044% versus the EUR 2.0B target, but heightening finance costs across the region continues to raise the threat for contagion as European policy makers look to buy more time. In turn, it seems as though the European Central Bank is getting ready to act in July, but the Governing Council may have little choice but to carry out its easing cycle throughout 2012 as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak. As the EURUSD struggles to push back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50, we may see the pair face range-bound price action over the near-term, but we will be keeping a close eye on the relative strength index as it appears to be forming an upward trend.
British Pound: Testing Former Support, BoE Holds Current Policy
The British Pound showed a fairly muted reaction to the Bank of England interest rate decision as the central bank stuck to its current policy in June, but we’re seeing the GBPUSD come up against former support around the 1.5600 as currency traders increase their appetite for risk. As the BoE refrains from releasing a policy statement, market participants will certainly look forward to the meeting minutes due out on June 20, and another 8-1 vote count may instill a bullish outlook for the sterling as it dampens speculation for more quantitative easing. As central bank officials anticipate to see a more robust recovery later this year, we should see the Monetary Policy Committee preserve its wait-and-see approach throughout 2012, and the board may continue to move away from its easing cycle amid the stickiness in underlying price growth. If the GBPUSD fails to clear 1.5600, we should see the pair track sideways ahead of the BoE Minutes, and the pound-dollar may build a short-term base in June as it continues to hold above the 50.0% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270.

####Correct the low dollar value on Outlook there, testimony from Bernanke in Focus

05 June 2012 03:55 GMT 

Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change)

(28 May 2012 – 01 Jun 2012)

Points de discussion
Dollar américain, de juste inférieur sur Outlook de3, témoignage de Bernanke dans Focus Euro, British Pound peut trouver appui comme la BCE et la BOE Hold Back relance japonais Yen visant plus vs USD comme QE espère peser sur Conseil du Trésor donne australien, canadien et le NZ Dollars peut recouvrer long avec risque appétit The US Dollar pénètre dans la semaine commerciale avec un surplomb de lourde par rapport profondément décevant sur l'emploi de vendredi ayant puisé hauts 18 mois juste avant la sortie de données. Le résultat ouvre la porte à un redémarrage de la spéculation, environ un tiers de tour de quantitative easing (de3) de la réserve fédérale. L'impact des efforts antérieurs de QE suggère que les marchés traiterait de stimulation supplémentaire comme ayant un effet dilutif sur le billet vert, ce qui suggère le gonflement des attentes d'un tel résultat sont susceptibles de peser sur les prix à court terme.
Témoignage à venir fromFed président Ben Bernanke susceptible d'amplifier l'accent sur la détente avant une session conjointe du Congrès de Paris. Bien que le chef de la Banque centrale est susceptible de rester engagés – relais un stimulus supplémentaire message familier, toujours « sur la table » mais « téméraire » si cela veut dire sacrifier la stabilité des prix – il semble sûr de reconnaître que tourner la récente baisse dans les données. Marchés peuvent accepter une fois de plus cela comme une attitude assez modérés de vendre le billet vert. L'impression d'ISM-secteur des services livre Beige de la Fed levé et du titre de conditions économiques régionales le calendrier économique, avec des signes de ralentissement susceptible de renforcer les espoirs de3 et composé de Dollar vente à pression.
Mais surtout, la probabilité que se concrétisera réellement de3 semble très petite. Nous les coûts d'emprunt nous trouver leur chemin moins bien sans intervention de la Fed. Référence 10 ans du Conseil du Trésor des rendements est tombé à un dossier faible 1,45 % la semaine dernière que les craintes de crise de la zone euro a conduit capital cherchant refuge dans la dette américaine. Après ajustement pour l'inflation, cela signifie que les investisseurs paiera effectivement le gouvernement environ 60 bps par an pour s'occuper de leur argent. Avec la situation en Europe guère sur la voie de la guérison, les rendements sont susceptibles de demeurer sous la pression pendant un certain temps, c'est-à-dire que le bénéfice marginal d'un programme de3 serait très faible au mieux et en faisant valoir ce qui laisse supposer que la faiblesse du Dollar cette semaine est susceptible d'être corrective, avec le rassemblement probable de retrouver le dynamisme que le trac de retour avant de la deuxième tentative de la Grèce, lors d'une élection générale le 17 juin.
Cependant son retour cette semaine, la prévalence de de3 Paris comme un conduite thème à court terme est susceptible de voir le Yen japonais continuent de renforcer une raffermissant de la corrélation entre les rendements du Conseil du Trésor et USDJPY tire la paire inférieure. Les stocks liés australien, canadien et Dollars néo-zélandais s'apprêtent à monter ainsi que confirmation des espoirs d'appétit risque de Fed relance bouée. L'EBR est censé largement réduire les taux d'intérêt encore une fois cette semaine. Les marchés semblent être des prix à une possibilité significative pour une autre réduction 50 bit/s, donc un résultat 25 bps plus petit peut-être offrir réellement la Aussie un bit d'un ascenseur. Séparément, le BOC devrait largement à maintenir les taux en attente à 1 %.
Quant à l'Euro et la livre sterling, corrélations avec l'appétit de risque (comme le suivi par le MSCI World Stock Index), les tendances ont diminué significativement, mettant l'accent sur les attentes de la politique monétaire comme la BOE ECBand fournir des annonces de taux d'intérêt. Les deux banques centrales devraient demeurer en attente cette fois-ci. Pour le BEP, un tel résultat est probablement un non-événement donné penchant de la Banque pour la maman de rester lorsqu'aucun changement de politique. Alors que les données économiques UK ont aigri, obstinément forte inflation est susceptible de garder Mervyn King et compagnie sur la touche pour l'instant. Quant à la BCE, les commerçants seront plus intéressés à la Banque centrale qui suit Conférence de presse du Président Mario Draghi l'annonce pour des conseils sur l'assouplissement de futurs possibles comme la croissance de la zone Euro continue d'affaissement et apaisement de l'inflation donne les décideurs le rythme pour l'exploitation. Sur la balance, moratoire sur les deux fronts peut aider EURUSD et GBPUSD plus élevé.
EURO

EURO

Source : Bloomberg
LIVRE STERLING

Source : Bloomberg
YEN JAPONAIS

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR CANADIEN

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR AUSTRALIEN

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR NÉO-ZÉLANDAIS

==> To convert US dollar higher as markets Digest Bernanke comments

26 April 2012 strategist 06: 33 GMT
Talking Points
Dollar recovered as markets Digest Post - FOMC Bernanke comment Euro may turn to low German CPI Drop Stokes ECB rate Cut Outlook NZ Dollar Gains after RBNZ rate decision, the markets dismiss Bollard threatens the US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) decreased during the night, with the markets seeming to take the comments of the Chairman of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, saying that officials were "ready to do more" to help the economy if growth has hesitated, singling out additional QE as still "on the table". Taken in isolation, the statement seems the likelihood of a new enlargement of the balance, weighing on the greenback in return of the fears of dilution of the project. This instinctive reaction does not appear to have staying power, however, that the markets digest the rest of the comment of Bernanke.
Keep there "on the table", it makes sense. After all, it would be unreasonable to expect the Fed to do nothing if growth were to falter again. During this time, Bernanke made it clear that purchases of additional assets not were not favored, saying it would be "very foolish" to allow inflation higher for the sake of reducing unemployment. The head of the Central Bank also added that the promise of low rates to late 2014 was contingent on economic data and subject to revision, if conditions were to justify (which probably means the rate can increase faster that the Fed is currently awaiting). Coupled with the forecast of growth, employment and inflation level, this seems difficult to suggest an additional stimulus in the pipeline at least in the short term.
The New Zealand Dollar exceeded after the RBNZ unchanged interest as expected. The Central Bank Governor Alan Bollard said that the domestic economy showed signs of recovery and predicted growth would seek to steam as efforts to rebuild Canterbury following earthquakes that rocked the area in February and June of last year. Here too however, the markets seem to be just half of the story, leaving room for a reversal. Bollard expressly warned that if Kiwi remains strong despite the decline in the prices of raw materials, the RBNZ will need to "reassess" its position, giving the statement a tone typically Dove.
German Consumer Price Index figures in headline economic calendar European hours, with the expectations for the annual inflation rate down to 2% in April, marking the reading below within 14 months. Taken against the backdrop of the comment modestly Dove of the President of the ECB yesterday Draghi and deeply disappointing number of PMI for the eurozone released earlier in the week, the result can weigh on the Euro as expectations build rates.
Draghi said inflation risks were overall balanced and noted that the ECB is ready to do what was required in both cases. Whereas the ECB Chief also predicted that price growth will remain above 2% this year, falling on the German CPI reading outright level may begin to speculation of the drive as the Central Bank must relieve more policy.
Asia session: What happened
Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision
At the national level (MAR) consumer confidence
Conference Board Leading Index (FEB)
DEWR skilled vacancies Internet (MoM) (MAR)
The industry index of activity (MoM) (FEB)
Session of the euro: what to expect
(APR) Italian business confidence
BBA loans for the purchase of the House (MAR)
Indicator of the eurozone (APR)
Euro-Zone economic confidence (APR)
Confidence of consumers in the euro area (APR F)
Industrial confidence in the eurozone (APR)
Eurozone Services Trust (APR)
German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR, P)
German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR, P)
German CPI - EU harmonized (MoM) (APR, P)
German CPI - EU harmonized (YoY) (APR, P)
Critical levels

USD Struggles Amid Bernanke Comments, Euro Eyes 1.3500

U.S. Dollar: Fed Chairman Bernanke Strikes Dovish Tone Amid High Unemployment Euro: ESM & EFSF To Run In Parallel, Head-and-Shoulders Top Negated British Pound: Eyes 1.6000 Ahead of BoE Rhetoric U.S. Dollar: Fed Chairman Bernanke Strikes Dovish Tone Amid High Unemployment
The greenback struggled to hold its ground on Monday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)giving back the overnight advance to 9,998, and the reserve currency may face additional headwinds during the North American trade should the developments coming out of the world’s largest economy fuel expectations for additional monetary support. Indeed, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke struck a dovish tone for monetary policy amid the ongoing weakness in the labor market, and it looks as though the central bank head will keep the door open to expand the balance sheet further in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.
As Mr. Bernanke continues to support an accommodative policy, it seems as though the central bank will endorse the zero-interest rate policy throughout 2012, but we may see a growing rift within the FOMC as Fed officials take note of the more robust recovery. As the economy gets on a more sustainable path, we should see the committee concluding its easing cycle this year, and the recent weakness in the USDOLLAR is likely to be short-lived as the index maintains the upward trend carried over from the previous month. In turn, we should see the reserve currency track higher going into April, and currency traders may turn increasingly bullish against the greenback as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.
Euro: ESM & EFSF To Run In Parallel, Head-and-Shoulders Top Negated
The Euro rallied to 1.3328 following the dovish comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke, and the single currency may continue to retrace the decline from the previous month as Europe policy makers increase their effort to address the sovereign debt crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel floated the idea of running the European Financial Stability Facility in ‘parallel’ with the European Stability Mechanism, while it seems as though the European Central Bank will continue to carry out its easing cycle in 2012 in an effort to lift the region out of recession. Indeed, Governing Council member Christian Noyer endorsed the ECB’s non-standard measures as the governments operating under the single currency struggle to get their house in order, and the central bank may continue to expand its balance sheet over the coming months as the fundamental outlook for the region remains clouded with high uncertainty. As the EURUSD clears the 2/9 high (1.3320), we are scaling back out call for a head-and-shoulders reversal, and it looks as though we will get another run at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.3500 as the pair maintains the previous month’s range.
British Pound: Eyes 1.6000 Ahead of BoE Rhetoric
The British Pound extended the advance from the previous week, with the GBPUSD advancing to a high of 1.5956, and the pair looks poised to make another run at 1.6000 as market participants increase their appetite for risk. However, as the relative strength index breaks out of the downward trend carried over from the previous month, the technical development instills a bullish outlook for the sterling, and we may see the exchange rate continue to retrace the decline from back in November as market sentiment improves. With Bank of England officials expected to speak this week, less dovish comments from the Monetary Policy Committee should prop up the pound over the near-term, but the central bank may keep the door open to implement more quantitative easing in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. In turn, we may have an opportunity to play the range-bound price action in the GBPUSD, but the recent strength in the sterling may gather pace going into April should the developments coming out of the U.K. dampen speculation for more asset purchases.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong
To be added to David's e-mail distribution list, send an e-mail with subject line "Distribution List" to dsong@dailyfx.com.
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Pending Home Sales (MoM) (FEB)
Pending Home Sales (YoY) (FEB)
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (MAR)
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks on Euro Economy
BoE's David Miles Speaks on U.K. Economy
Trade Balance (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)
Marks the first surplus for 2012, imports narrowed for the third month.
Balance (YTD) (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)
Exports (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)
Imports (New Zealand dollars) (FEB)
German IFO - Expectations (MAR)
Advances for the fifth consecutive month.
German IFO - Business Climate (MAR)
German IFO - Current Assessment (MAR)
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (FEB)

Forex News - Euro and stocks trade flat on Bernanke, debt crisis

 
Von Herbert Lash und Luciana Lopez
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Aktien und der Euro gehandelt am Donnerstag wenig geändert, wie Daten, die Verbesserung der U.S.-Arbeitsmarkt und Bemerkungen von US-Notenbankchef Ben Bernanke, die vorgeschlagen, einige wirtschaftliche Optimismus signalisieren durch Bedenken über Europas Eiternder Schuldenkrise kompensiert wurden.
Investoren blieb auch vorsichtig sein, vor der die U.S. non-Farm Payrolls und Arbeitslosigkeit Bericht für Januar am Freitag, Preise über die Finanzmärkte im Zaum halten.
Bernanke, sagte im Zeugnis Kongress, dass er Zeichen sah, dass einige der Dämpfung U.S. Business Investition, einschließlich der Europäischen Banken sorgen, Unsicherheit schwinden werden könnte. Aber Bernanke sagte, es sei zu früh zu sagen, ob die Vereinigten Staaten unversehrt durch Sorgen über ihre Grenzen hinaus blieben.
"Bernanke ist ein wenig mehr optimistisch auf die Wirtschaft als erwartet", sagte John Doyle, ein Währung-Stratege bei Tempus Consulting in Washington, D.C. "gesendet, dass der niedrigere Dollar und dem Euro höher, aber ich weiß nicht, wie lange es dauern wird."
Euro erweiterte kurz vor dem Handel um 0,1 Prozent auf $1.3141 gegenüber dem Dollar. Der Dollar gegenüber einem Korb der wichtigsten Währungen, mit der Dollarindex verstärkt.DXY um 0,1 Prozent.
US-Aktien seesawed in einem engen Bereich von Ergebnis Berichte geschoben. Tech-Aktien stieg auf das starke Ergebnis von Chiphersteller Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM.O: zitieren, Profil, Forschung, Lager Buzz), deren Aktien nach Gewinn im ersten Quartal ein 12-Jahres-hoch schlagen Schätzungen vernichtend geschlagen. Die Aktien geschlossen bis 2,0 Prozent zu $60,73 nach dem Aufstehen so hoch wie $61.95.
Neue Ansprüche auf Leistungen bei Arbeitslosigkeit U.S. sanken stärker als erwartete letzte Woche.
"Die Arbeitslosen Forderungen den Trend der anständigen News, aber es auch andere Anzeichen für einen allgemeinen Verlust der Dynamik gab,", sagte Bruce McCain, chief Investment Strategist bei Schlüssel Private Bank in Cleveland. "Das legt nahe, dass wir sind in der richtigen Ballpark Schätzungen für die Arbeitsplätze Bericht, sondern auch, dass wir wahrscheinlich eine riesige Kopf Überraschung zu sehen sind, nicht."
Freitag Bericht soll zeigen, dass nichtlandwirtschaftliche Lohn-und Gehaltslisten von 150.000 im Januar, nach unten von einem Gewinn von 200.000 Arbeitsplätze im Dezember stieg laut einer Reuters-Umfrage. Die Arbeitslosenquote ist gesehen an einem nahe drei-Jahres-Tief von 8,5 Prozent stabil halten.
Der Dow Jones Industrial Average.DJI geschlossen 11.05 Punkte oder 0,09 Prozent auf 12,705.41. Der Standard & Poor's 500 Index.SPX stieg um 1,45 Punkte, oder 0,11 Prozent, bei 1,325.54. Der Nasdaq Composite Index.IXIC Hinzugefügt 11.41 Punkte oder 0,40 Prozent auf 2,859.68.
Die 10 Jahre US Treasury Note gelöscht frühere Kursverluste und stellte sich vor Freitag Beschäftigung Bericht leicht positiv. Die Benchmark 10 Jahre US Treasury Note war bis 2/32 in Preis Ausbeute 1,82 Prozent.
"Menschen vor der Lohn-und Gehaltslisten ruhigen Morgen bleiben", sagte Justin Lederer, Zins-Stratege bei Cantor Fitzgerald in New York.
Europäische Aktien Hit eine sechsmonatige schließen hoch auf die U.S. pro Arbeitslosen Forderungen. Bergmann Xstrata (XTA.L: zitieren, Profil, Forschung, Lager Buzz) und Rohstoff-Trader-Glencore (GLEN.L: Anführungsstrich, Profil, Forschung, Lager Buzz) führte Gainers Fusionsgespräche bestätigt. Xstrata sprang 9,9 Prozent und Glencore stieg um 6,9 Prozent.
Der FTSEurofirst 300-Index.FTEU3 der obersten europäischen Aktien geschlossen um 0,2 Prozent auf 1,059.45 Punkte.
Die ungelöste Schuldenkrise in der Eurozone gehalten Investoren am Rand.
Diese Woche-EU Gipfel war sagte "weitgehend unzureichend" bei der Bewältigung der Krise, Luxemburgs Jean-Claude Juncker, der Finanzminister der Euro-Zone Gruppe leitet. Er beschrieb die griechischen Schulden Gespräche als "ultra-difficult."
Athen ist kriechen, um Gespräche über einen 130-Milliarden-Euro-Rettungsplan und Bond Swap viel einpacken, bevor große Bond Rücknahmen im März fällig.
Der MSCI All-Land Welt Aktienindex.MIWD00000PUS gewann 0,29 Prozent zu 321.70. Den aufstrebenden Marktindex.MSCIEF stieg um 1,4 Prozent.
Brent-Preise stieg um ein Drittel gerade Tag und U.S. Rohöl mehr als 1 Prozent in den Handel schwer fiel, die den Preisunterschied zwischen den beiden Verträgen sah werden nah zum drei-Monats-Hochs erweitert.
Brent-Rohöl stieg um 51 Cent auf $112.07 pro Barrel nach der Session in der Nähe von Break-even-Handel zu begleichen.
U.S. grobe ließ sich $1,25 bis $96.36 nieder.
Gold stieg auf der größer als erwartete Rückgang der neuen U.S. Ansprüche auf Leistungen bei Arbeitslosigkeit auf ein zwei-Monats-hoch. Aber Analytiker sagten, dass Goldbarren zurückziehen konnte, wenn Freitag Beschäftigung Bericht enttäuscht.
US gold-Futures für April Lieferung bis $9,80 ein Unzen bei $1,759.30 beigelegt.
(Zusätzliche Berichterstattung von Richard Hubbard in London und Nick Olivari in New York; Bearbeiten von Leslie Adler und Andrew Heu)
© Thomson Reuters 2011. Alle Rechte vorbehalten
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