####Correct the low dollar value on Outlook there, testimony from Bernanke in Focus

05 June 2012 03:55 GMT 

Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change)

(28 May 2012 – 01 Jun 2012)

Points de discussion
Dollar américain, de juste inférieur sur Outlook de3, témoignage de Bernanke dans Focus Euro, British Pound peut trouver appui comme la BCE et la BOE Hold Back relance japonais Yen visant plus vs USD comme QE espère peser sur Conseil du Trésor donne australien, canadien et le NZ Dollars peut recouvrer long avec risque appétit The US Dollar pénètre dans la semaine commerciale avec un surplomb de lourde par rapport profondément décevant sur l'emploi de vendredi ayant puisé hauts 18 mois juste avant la sortie de données. Le résultat ouvre la porte à un redémarrage de la spéculation, environ un tiers de tour de quantitative easing (de3) de la réserve fédérale. L'impact des efforts antérieurs de QE suggère que les marchés traiterait de stimulation supplémentaire comme ayant un effet dilutif sur le billet vert, ce qui suggère le gonflement des attentes d'un tel résultat sont susceptibles de peser sur les prix à court terme.
Témoignage à venir fromFed président Ben Bernanke susceptible d'amplifier l'accent sur la détente avant une session conjointe du Congrès de Paris. Bien que le chef de la Banque centrale est susceptible de rester engagés – relais un stimulus supplémentaire message familier, toujours « sur la table » mais « téméraire » si cela veut dire sacrifier la stabilité des prix – il semble sûr de reconnaître que tourner la récente baisse dans les données. Marchés peuvent accepter une fois de plus cela comme une attitude assez modérés de vendre le billet vert. L'impression d'ISM-secteur des services livre Beige de la Fed levé et du titre de conditions économiques régionales le calendrier économique, avec des signes de ralentissement susceptible de renforcer les espoirs de3 et composé de Dollar vente à pression.
Mais surtout, la probabilité que se concrétisera réellement de3 semble très petite. Nous les coûts d'emprunt nous trouver leur chemin moins bien sans intervention de la Fed. Référence 10 ans du Conseil du Trésor des rendements est tombé à un dossier faible 1,45 % la semaine dernière que les craintes de crise de la zone euro a conduit capital cherchant refuge dans la dette américaine. Après ajustement pour l'inflation, cela signifie que les investisseurs paiera effectivement le gouvernement environ 60 bps par an pour s'occuper de leur argent. Avec la situation en Europe guère sur la voie de la guérison, les rendements sont susceptibles de demeurer sous la pression pendant un certain temps, c'est-à-dire que le bénéfice marginal d'un programme de3 serait très faible au mieux et en faisant valoir ce qui laisse supposer que la faiblesse du Dollar cette semaine est susceptible d'être corrective, avec le rassemblement probable de retrouver le dynamisme que le trac de retour avant de la deuxième tentative de la Grèce, lors d'une élection générale le 17 juin.
Cependant son retour cette semaine, la prévalence de de3 Paris comme un conduite thème à court terme est susceptible de voir le Yen japonais continuent de renforcer une raffermissant de la corrélation entre les rendements du Conseil du Trésor et USDJPY tire la paire inférieure. Les stocks liés australien, canadien et Dollars néo-zélandais s'apprêtent à monter ainsi que confirmation des espoirs d'appétit risque de Fed relance bouée. L'EBR est censé largement réduire les taux d'intérêt encore une fois cette semaine. Les marchés semblent être des prix à une possibilité significative pour une autre réduction 50 bit/s, donc un résultat 25 bps plus petit peut-être offrir réellement la Aussie un bit d'un ascenseur. Séparément, le BOC devrait largement à maintenir les taux en attente à 1 %.
Quant à l'Euro et la livre sterling, corrélations avec l'appétit de risque (comme le suivi par le MSCI World Stock Index), les tendances ont diminué significativement, mettant l'accent sur les attentes de la politique monétaire comme la BOE ECBand fournir des annonces de taux d'intérêt. Les deux banques centrales devraient demeurer en attente cette fois-ci. Pour le BEP, un tel résultat est probablement un non-événement donné penchant de la Banque pour la maman de rester lorsqu'aucun changement de politique. Alors que les données économiques UK ont aigri, obstinément forte inflation est susceptible de garder Mervyn King et compagnie sur la touche pour l'instant. Quant à la BCE, les commerçants seront plus intéressés à la Banque centrale qui suit Conférence de presse du Président Mario Draghi l'annonce pour des conseils sur l'assouplissement de futurs possibles comme la croissance de la zone Euro continue d'affaissement et apaisement de l'inflation donne les décideurs le rythme pour l'exploitation. Sur la balance, moratoire sur les deux fronts peut aider EURUSD et GBPUSD plus élevé.
EURO

EURO

Source : Bloomberg
LIVRE STERLING

Source : Bloomberg
YEN JAPONAIS

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR CANADIEN

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR AUSTRALIEN

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR NÉO-ZÉLANDAIS

$$ US Dollar to Correct Broadly Lower Before Larger Advance Resumes

fundamental forecasts for the US Dollar: Rally
The Dollar finished trade week on a negative note after a new high of 18 months against high counterparts as a dismally disappointing we sent report employment tumbling prices. The logic of the bond of conduct seemed to Centre the growing possibility of a third round of reserve Federal quantitative easing (there) to the collapse, us recovery. This would probably dilute the greenback, producing losses similar to those observed in the wake of the previous efforts of QE the Central Bank. However, this logic seems misguided.
Us borrowing costs find us their way less well without intervention of the Fed. The benchmark 10-year Treasury obligations performance dropped to a record low 1.45% last week that the euro area sovereign risk fears led capital seeking refuge in us debt. After adjustment for inflation, the performance actually is-0. 60 percent, investors sense will actually pay Government bps 60 per year to care for their money. With the situation in Europe hardly on the road to healing, yields are likely to remain under pressure for some time, means that the marginal benefit of a program there would be very low at best and in arguing against expansion, the Fed balance sheet.
In this spirit, performance of the Dollar risk towards little more than profit-taking. The catalyst mainly brutal rally of the Dollar in recent weeks has rooted in fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone growing risk aversion. The slump in the sense has been aggravated by the testimony of mounting of wind for world economic growth of a recession in Europe and deep slowdown in Asia. While none of these concerns have been truly resolved, the fresh stock of negativity to drive continued sales in space of risky assets is executed may be dry, opening the door to a reflection.
Summit of the leaders of the EU concluded this month said unequivocally that policy makers intended to remain on the sidelines until the Greece installed a coherent Government and would then only with that which takes the reins to establish a way forward. Indeed, this is the fundamental concern vis à vis of Europe to hold until the second attempt at a general election is made in two weeks. During this time, the landscape of economic growth is desperate but thematic step unfamiliar to investors, given the large lines of performance trends in engines key outputs of the globe have been well established for some time.
On the front of national data, a relatively calm folder waiting for you in the coming week. The printing and survey service-sector ISM book the amount of economic conditions Fed Beige regional high level only on the calendar elements, nor likely to provide much result that traders do not have the price already. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke is also due to testify before a joint session of Congress, traders will pay certainly strong attention to clues there. Property that the head of the Central Bank is likely to remain committed - relay one stimulus additional message familiar, always "on the table" but "reckless" if it means sacrificing price stability - it seems sure to recognize that turn the recent decline in the data. Markets can accept once more that as a fairly moderate to sell the greenback, amplifying the withdrawal until the Greece concerns recessional restart uptrend toward the beginning of the following week. -EAST

? Crude oil, gold may rise as correct more related to the risk assets

25 may 2012 strategist 08: 45 GMT Talking Points
Oil, copper more objective as taken profit driven risk recovery gold and silver may rebound on Haven demand is waning US dollar European actions are accelerating and S & P 500 futures index fellow point, hinting risky are likely to remain supported in that Wall Street is online. It is for a favourable environment for growth crude oil and the price of copper, where the correlation with the stock benchmarks remain important. During this time, gold and Silver were brought to bounce as a recovery in the sense of the Havre drains demand for the US Dollar.
With the fact EU leaders Summit and the last batch of PMIs of the China and the euro area, which underlines the seriousness of the winds, the world production, the provision of negative thoughts in the short term that can theoretically affect markets is running dry. Simply, while there are reasons enough to be generally little risk, it may appear more attractive to get shorter at the current level. This opens the way to profit taking to stimulate a corrective recovery until the return of the bear in force before the Greek election rehearsal in mid-June.
The economic calendar is calm in European hours, moving the spotlight of the revised version of University of Michigan gauge of confidence of the consumer as the next significant bit of event risk. Expectations call for confirmation of the results reported to the origin of 77.8, the highest reading since January 2008. After a second week of mixed may survey results, the result could be to tip the balance in the development of the perception of the traders of the US recovery and its ability to mitigate the pressure downward Europe and Asia-focused on global growth.
WTI crude oil (near NY): $90.66 / / + 0.76 / / + 0.85%
Put price in the form of Harami candlestick above resistance-turned-support to 90.49, evoking a corrective bounce may be coming. Positive divergence in RSI strengthens the case for a scenario head. Initial resistance to the 92.51 lines, a former support marked by December 16, low, with a high thrust that on 2 February 95.41 low targeting.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (near NY): $1559.25 / /-2.20 / /-0.14%
Strictly sliding below price of 1560.98, the tracing of 23.6% Fibonacci support, exposing the next major disadvantages barrier in the region of 50 1522-1532 45. The absence of significant conviction on the less break is monitoring in question however, suggesting the 38.2% Fib 1582.10 perhaps the threshold of resistance in the short term more important.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Cash (near NY): $28.30 / / + 0.50 / / + 1.80%
Prices are recovering from 27,06 support after placing in a model of Bull candlestick engulfing to the resistance of 28.70. A break above this level exposes initially 29.71. Alternatively, a reversal, with support exposes zone 26 05-15.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (near NY): $3.428 / / + 0.032 / / + 0.94%
Prices are mounting an intraday support 3.438, expansion of Fibonacci 100% recovery. Negative divergence of the IHR strengthens the case for a scenario head. Lines initial resistance to the 3.537, at the level of the expansion of 76.4%. Alternatively, a break under load exposes 123,6% 3.327.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

>> Products can correct higher as markets gear up for FOMC

Discussion points
Oil, copper more objective on Pre-FOMC Correction S & P 500 Futures Rise gold and silver can be traced more if mood risk weighed on prices Dollar products are little changed in early European hours as traders are looking for a catalyst trigger the directional movement. A record quiet economic data turns the spotlight at the end of a sale by auction of Italian liaison, with Rome sale coupon 2014 debt and paper 2017 and 2019 linked to inflation. Traders will be be keeping a close eye on the average yields of signs of sovereign stress of return.
With respect to the U.S. Data folder, the tonnage of consumer confidence and the extent of the Richmond Fed of manufacturing activity should decrease for a second month in April after inversion low high last month. New home sales page are called Print 318 000 in March, recovering from a shallow downturn in February and by matching the result of January. Still, the impression would be below its average of more than 322 K barely three months.
Interestingly, risk appetite seems to relatively well despite the poor set of us economic indicators on tap. & S P 500 stock index futures point higher. This may reflect a period of correction after the rout of yesterday across the spectrum of the asset sensitive growth step ahead of FOMC on Wednesday policy meeting, perhaps little more important for the week of the event risk. This gives scope for a recovery of gross sensitive cycle and the price of copper. If the move is mirrored with a withdrawal in the U.S. Dollar as haven flows reversed course, gold and silver have room for traction.
WTI crude oil (near NY): $103.11 / /-0.77 / / 0.74%
The prices remain trapped between 104.90 resistance and support of line growing trend set in mid-December, with a pattern of upward candlestick engulfing pleading for a bias head. A break above 104.90 exposes the trend line barriers fall 105.04 and 106.32. Support is now the 101.68.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (near NY): $1638.82 / /-4.10 / /-0.25%
Prices are test below help to 1638.02, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after placing in a model of candlestick bearish engulfing under trend line resistance fall of early March. A break below exposes the 38.2% level to 1612.02. Trend line resistance is now at 1664.19.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Cash (near NY): $30.86 / /-0.84 / /-2.64%
After a lateral drift, price finally took support on 31.04, exposing the next downside target at 29.79. 31.04 Level has been redesigned as a short term resistance. In General, a head and shoulders (H & S) top cut between late January and mid-March argues for a problem with 26.84 measured target.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (near NY): $3.626 / /-0.072 / /-1.95%
Prices continue to test increase in defined early October trend line support, with a lower break Exhibitor supports 3.573 and 3.522 marked by swing top in early December and January respectively. Initial resistance to the 3.713 lines.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0