Gold range is at risk amid Bernanke testimony, Fed’s beige book

 Fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral Trade is modest fixed gold at the end of this week with the precious 0.59% by the close of trade Friday ahead. Prices remained largely within a clearly defined range almost nine weeks now when participants try to assess market with gold of seemingly broad risk-weighted assets since the end of June to track future monetary policy by global central banks. Gold bars of the 20-tägige correlation with the S & P-500 has currently highest reached since November 2010 is 0.72 and the metal likely to cope with current range as markets continue to growing concern over global growth prospects.
On Wednesday, the FOMC Protocol offered added little hope for investors who eagerly greater calls expect additional financial support were. In fact continue to the majority in the Committee little room for one more large-scale asset program with the minutes revealed that only "a few members said, more impulse would probably be needed." As the fresh batch of the Central Bank the chance for QE3 dampens rhetoric increased the displacement of the policy Outlook the attractiveness of the dollar, which will limit expected to be substantial progress in the gold price in the meantime. A look at the next week, dealers will loans be a great ear for remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, he before Bank Committee on Tuesday and the House witnessed financial services Committee on Wednesday. However, investors may overlook Bernanke notes before the Fed beige book, which is scheduled for publication on Thursday at 1800GMT and maybe we see the twelve districts after positive assessment of last month highlight improvements in the Fed further continuing the report. However, if the report shows added to signs of strains on economic activity, was speculation for further relaxation of the Central Bank keep gold prices well supported as the call for the yellow metal as a store of value increases prosperity.
From a technical perspective, gold is in the consolidation of the last nine weeks remained, as prices in the apex of the triangle formation within the range between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci extensions, that September and February of highs at $1640 to $1545 or taken to consolidate. Break below the 61.8% enlargement succeeding eyes land at $1500 and the mouth of July 2011 lows and 78.6% extension at $1480. interim resistance is at $1600 with a break on the heights in relief of 1625 in the short term more downside pressure July. In other words, we break out the several months range neutral remain at these levels until one. -MB

$USD Slides Following China Rate Cut, All Eyes On Bernanke Testimony

07 June 2012 13:30 GMT Talking Points
U.S. Dollar: Correction Gathers Pace On China Rate Cut, All Eyes On Bernanke Euro: RSI Carving Upward Trend, Spain Faces Higher Finance Costs British Pound: Testing Former Support, BoE Holds Current Policy U.S. Dollar: Correction Gathers Pace On China Rate Cut, All Eyes On Bernanke
The greenback weakened further on Thursday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) slipping to a fresh weekly low of 10,143, and the rise in risk sentiment may continue to dampen the appeal of the reserve currency as market participants see the international community increasing its effort to tackle the debt crisis. Indeed, the People’s Bank of China lowered its one-year lending rate by 25bp, which will take effect on June 8, and it seems as though the world’s second-largest economy will continue to embark on its easing cycle as the debt crisis continues to dampen the outlook for global growth.
As market participants turn their attention to Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony in front of Congress, the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric is likely to heavily impact the USD, and a slew of dovish commentary may further weaken the greenback as market participants increase bets for another round of quantitative easing. However, as Fed officials continue to take note of the more robust recovery, it will be increasingly difficult for the central bank head to justify QE3, and we may see Mr. Bernanke strike a more balanced tone for monetary policy as the recovery gradually gathers pace. In turn, we will pay close attention to his fundamental assessment for the U.S. economy, and we may see the dollar regain its footing should the Fed chairman strike an improved outlook for growth and inflation.
Euro: RSI Carving Upward Trend, Spain Faces Higher Finance Costs
The Euro rallied to 1.2610 amid the rise in risk-taking behavior and the rebound in the EURUSD may turn into a larger correction as the global movement to ease policy helps to prop up market sentiment. Indeed, Spain sold EUR 2.07B in bonds yielding 6.044% versus the EUR 2.0B target, but heightening finance costs across the region continues to raise the threat for contagion as European policy makers look to buy more time. In turn, it seems as though the European Central Bank is getting ready to act in July, but the Governing Council may have little choice but to carry out its easing cycle throughout 2012 as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak. As the EURUSD struggles to push back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50, we may see the pair face range-bound price action over the near-term, but we will be keeping a close eye on the relative strength index as it appears to be forming an upward trend.
British Pound: Testing Former Support, BoE Holds Current Policy
The British Pound showed a fairly muted reaction to the Bank of England interest rate decision as the central bank stuck to its current policy in June, but we’re seeing the GBPUSD come up against former support around the 1.5600 as currency traders increase their appetite for risk. As the BoE refrains from releasing a policy statement, market participants will certainly look forward to the meeting minutes due out on June 20, and another 8-1 vote count may instill a bullish outlook for the sterling as it dampens speculation for more quantitative easing. As central bank officials anticipate to see a more robust recovery later this year, we should see the Monetary Policy Committee preserve its wait-and-see approach throughout 2012, and the board may continue to move away from its easing cycle amid the stickiness in underlying price growth. If the GBPUSD fails to clear 1.5600, we should see the pair track sideways ahead of the BoE Minutes, and the pound-dollar may build a short-term base in June as it continues to hold above the 50.0% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270.

####Correct the low dollar value on Outlook there, testimony from Bernanke in Focus

05 June 2012 03:55 GMT 

Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change)

(28 May 2012 – 01 Jun 2012)

Points de discussion
Dollar américain, de juste inférieur sur Outlook de3, témoignage de Bernanke dans Focus Euro, British Pound peut trouver appui comme la BCE et la BOE Hold Back relance japonais Yen visant plus vs USD comme QE espère peser sur Conseil du Trésor donne australien, canadien et le NZ Dollars peut recouvrer long avec risque appétit The US Dollar pénètre dans la semaine commerciale avec un surplomb de lourde par rapport profondément décevant sur l'emploi de vendredi ayant puisé hauts 18 mois juste avant la sortie de données. Le résultat ouvre la porte à un redémarrage de la spéculation, environ un tiers de tour de quantitative easing (de3) de la réserve fédérale. L'impact des efforts antérieurs de QE suggère que les marchés traiterait de stimulation supplémentaire comme ayant un effet dilutif sur le billet vert, ce qui suggère le gonflement des attentes d'un tel résultat sont susceptibles de peser sur les prix à court terme.
Témoignage à venir fromFed président Ben Bernanke susceptible d'amplifier l'accent sur la détente avant une session conjointe du Congrès de Paris. Bien que le chef de la Banque centrale est susceptible de rester engagés – relais un stimulus supplémentaire message familier, toujours « sur la table » mais « téméraire » si cela veut dire sacrifier la stabilité des prix – il semble sûr de reconnaître que tourner la récente baisse dans les données. Marchés peuvent accepter une fois de plus cela comme une attitude assez modérés de vendre le billet vert. L'impression d'ISM-secteur des services livre Beige de la Fed levé et du titre de conditions économiques régionales le calendrier économique, avec des signes de ralentissement susceptible de renforcer les espoirs de3 et composé de Dollar vente à pression.
Mais surtout, la probabilité que se concrétisera réellement de3 semble très petite. Nous les coûts d'emprunt nous trouver leur chemin moins bien sans intervention de la Fed. Référence 10 ans du Conseil du Trésor des rendements est tombé à un dossier faible 1,45 % la semaine dernière que les craintes de crise de la zone euro a conduit capital cherchant refuge dans la dette américaine. Après ajustement pour l'inflation, cela signifie que les investisseurs paiera effectivement le gouvernement environ 60 bps par an pour s'occuper de leur argent. Avec la situation en Europe guère sur la voie de la guérison, les rendements sont susceptibles de demeurer sous la pression pendant un certain temps, c'est-à-dire que le bénéfice marginal d'un programme de3 serait très faible au mieux et en faisant valoir ce qui laisse supposer que la faiblesse du Dollar cette semaine est susceptible d'être corrective, avec le rassemblement probable de retrouver le dynamisme que le trac de retour avant de la deuxième tentative de la Grèce, lors d'une élection générale le 17 juin.
Cependant son retour cette semaine, la prévalence de de3 Paris comme un conduite thème à court terme est susceptible de voir le Yen japonais continuent de renforcer une raffermissant de la corrélation entre les rendements du Conseil du Trésor et USDJPY tire la paire inférieure. Les stocks liés australien, canadien et Dollars néo-zélandais s'apprêtent à monter ainsi que confirmation des espoirs d'appétit risque de Fed relance bouée. L'EBR est censé largement réduire les taux d'intérêt encore une fois cette semaine. Les marchés semblent être des prix à une possibilité significative pour une autre réduction 50 bit/s, donc un résultat 25 bps plus petit peut-être offrir réellement la Aussie un bit d'un ascenseur. Séparément, le BOC devrait largement à maintenir les taux en attente à 1 %.
Quant à l'Euro et la livre sterling, corrélations avec l'appétit de risque (comme le suivi par le MSCI World Stock Index), les tendances ont diminué significativement, mettant l'accent sur les attentes de la politique monétaire comme la BOE ECBand fournir des annonces de taux d'intérêt. Les deux banques centrales devraient demeurer en attente cette fois-ci. Pour le BEP, un tel résultat est probablement un non-événement donné penchant de la Banque pour la maman de rester lorsqu'aucun changement de politique. Alors que les données économiques UK ont aigri, obstinément forte inflation est susceptible de garder Mervyn King et compagnie sur la touche pour l'instant. Quant à la BCE, les commerçants seront plus intéressés à la Banque centrale qui suit Conférence de presse du Président Mario Draghi l'annonce pour des conseils sur l'assouplissement de futurs possibles comme la croissance de la zone Euro continue d'affaissement et apaisement de l'inflation donne les décideurs le rythme pour l'exploitation. Sur la balance, moratoire sur les deux fronts peut aider EURUSD et GBPUSD plus élevé.
EURO

EURO

Source : Bloomberg
LIVRE STERLING

Source : Bloomberg
YEN JAPONAIS

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR CANADIEN

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR AUSTRALIEN

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR NÉO-ZÉLANDAIS

Canadian Dollar to Hold Range on Slower Consumption, BoC Testimony

21 April 2012 00: 37 GMT

 

Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Neutral

The Canadian dollar pared the decline from earlier this month as the Bank of Canada raised its fundamental assessment for the region, but the loonie may struggle to hold its ground next week as the economic docket is expected to reinforce a weakened outlook for growth. As market participants see a slower rate of private consumption in February, a slew of dismal developments could push the USDCAD back towards parity, and the pair may threaten the range-bound price action carried over from earlier this year should the data dampens the scope for a rate hike.

Indeed, the BoC talked up speculation for higher interest rates as policy makers now see the economy back at full-capacity operation in the first-half of 2013, and Credit Switzerland overnight index swaps already reflect expectations for higher borrowing costs as market participants start to price a rate hikes for the next 12-months. However, we may see Governor Mark Carney endorse a one-time move in order to bring down the marked expansion in home-equity credit lines, and the central bank head may strongly opposed for a series of rate hikes as the record rise in household indebtedness presents a major threat to the recovery. As Mr. Carney is scheduled to testify in front of the house of Commons Finance Committee and the Senate Banking Committee next week, the governor may strike a more balanced tone for monetary policy, and we may see the BoC preserve its wait-and-see approach for a prolonged period of time as the economic recovery continues to be driven by the ongoing rise in household borrowing.

As the USDCAD maintains the range-bound price action from earlier this year, we should see even the move back towards the top of its range (0. 9900-1. 0050), but the FOMC interest rate decision may spark whipsaw-like price action in the exchange rate as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. Should the Fed signal an increased willingness to move on rates, a shift in the policy outlook could produce a bullish breakout in the exchange rate as the BoC lags behind, but we may see the dollar-loonie continues to track sideways next week if the committee keeps the door open to expand monetary policy further. -DS