The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report

The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report
Analyst 14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT 

undamentale Prognose für Gold: Baisse
Der kanadische Dollar gewann an Boden gegen Gegenstück U.S. inmitten den Rebound in Gefahr Gefühl kann, doch die Loonie zu behaupten die Bank of Canada einen vorsichtigen Ausblick für die Region Streik sollte nächste Woche. Das BoC Zinssatz Entscheidung das größte Ereignisrisiko für die folgende Woche zeigt, wie Gouverneur Mark Carney sich Spekulationen für höhere Fremdkapitalkosten spricht, aber Marktteilnehmer weiter können, zurück zu skalieren Wetten für eine Zinsanhebung die Staatsschulden-Krise weiterhin eine Bedrohung für die Region darstellen.
Tatsächlich Gouverneur Carney machte zahlreiche Versuche, auf den Datensatz Anstieg der Haushaltsverschuldung zu sprechen, und vielleicht sehen wir die Zentralbank Kopf weiterhin die Idee für eine mögliche Zinserhöhung inmitten Ängste vor einer Immobilienblase zu schweben. Obwohl wir Lichtblicke in der kanadischen Wirtschaft sehen, beschränkten die BoC Gesichter Bereich um das Normalisieren Geldpolitik inmitten der anhaltenden Turbulenzen in Europa. Dadurch können wir die Zentralbank seine warten-and-See-Ansatz in 2013 tragen sehen. In einer Umfrage von Bloomberg News Übernachtung alle der 22 Ökonomen Befragten Prognose BoC Zinssatz 1,00 % halten, während den Marktteilnehmern die Zentralbank Festhalten an seiner warten-and-See-Ansatz über die nächsten 12 Monate laut Credit Suisse finden Sie unter Index Swaps.
Zur gleichen Zeit werden wir genau verfolgt werden den vierteljährlichen geldpolitischen Bericht due out am 18. Juli wie die Zentralbank ihre aktualisierten Prognose für Wachstum und Inflation sowie den Bericht mein Highlight eine geschwächte Outlook für die Region präsentieren wird wie die USA – Kanadas größter Handelspartner – eine Verlangsamung Erholung steht. Wiederum die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik kann dämpfen die Beschwerde mit dem kanadischen Dollar, aber der Verbraucherpreis-Bericht vom Fass für Freitag erneuere Spekulation für höhere Kreditkosten wie die Kern-Rate der Inflation erwartet wird, um im schnellsten Tempo für 2012 zu erweitern. Als die USDCAD weiterhin über die 78.6 % Fibonacci-Retracement aus der 2007 halten, niedrig, die 2009 um hohe 1.0100-10, wir sehen weiterhin, dass das Paar eine kurzfristige Basis um die Kennzahl aufbauen und die technische Perspektiven flößt eine Hausse Voreingenommenheit für die Dollar-Loonie als der relative Stärke Index Pausen heraus von den Abwärtstrend. Wiederum eine ganze Reihe von Leitzinssenkung Kommentare von BoC einen anderen laufen bei 1.0400 auslösen kann, und frische 2012 Höhen des Wechselkurses können wir sehen, wie er sich ein höheres tief im Juli schnitzt. -DS
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14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT

Canadian dollar could threaten the range on higher employment

Fundamental forecasts for gold: neutral
The Canadian dollar ended the month pleased against its American counterpart, in the sense of risk rise and loons can appreciate more in the week ahead as the economic record is expected to encourage improved prospects for the region. Indeed, the employment report highlights the greater risk of event for the following week, and development may support the Canadian currency as the labour market is expected to add another K 5 jobs in June.
The economic recovery gradually gathers pace, there is one more argument for the Bank of the Canada to raise the interest rate of 1.00% reference, and we see Governor Mark Carney continue to talk of speculation for higher borrowing costs to combat the record increase in domestic debt. However, we will be convinced that a possible rate hike would be a single agreement, as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on global growth, and it appears that investors see a case for more facilities as the BoC is designed to encourage a sustainable recovery. According to Credit Switzerland night index swap, market participants requested that costs more at the beginning of June, but start at a reduced rate for the following 12 months the price, and the change in the prospect of an interest rate can gather pace over the short term in the slowdown of growth and inflation. In turn, we could attend the Central Bank to maintain its approach of wait and see throughout 2012, and the USDCAD may face range-bound prices in July that the market participants weigh prospects for monetary policy.
As the USDCAD continues to find support provisional on 1.0160 figure, the pair seems ready for a rebound in the short term in the next few days, and we see the action side price in July in the uncertainty surrounding the fundamental Outlook for the Canada. However, we will be either to keep a close eye on the index relative of strength as the trend in the oscillator continues to take form, and we see the exchange rate back to the tracing of Fibonacci from 78.6% of 2007 low in 2009 high around 1.0100-10 should developments on tap for the speculation of fuel next week for a BoC rate hike. -DS

Dollar climbs in the Canadian economy grew in April at the fastest pace this year

The Takeaway: [the faster growth of Canadian GDP this year in April] > [Pickup in mining and oil and gas activity] > [CAD strengthens]
The Canadian economy grew at a faster pace than expected in April, led by increased activity in the mining and oil and gas extraction sector. The gross domestic product (GDP) of the Canada increased by 0.3% in April, the fastest on the months rate this year, after cutting of 0.1% in March. On an annual basis, GDP expanded 2.0% in April, after growth of 1.7% in each three months previously. Forecasts of the consensus of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had called for growth of 0.2 per cent on a month and an annualized 1.8 percent growth rate.
According to a report published by Statistics Canada, mining and oil and gas extraction has rebounded in April after that of temporary stops the difficulties of mining production and led to a slowdown in February and March. Mining and oil and gas extraction increased by 2.7% in April after decline of 2.0% in February and 1.1% in March. Trade in large trade rose 1.2% in April, climbing for the fifth month running. During this time, production decreased by 0.3% and construction decreased by 0.1% in April.
Chart 1-minute USDCAD: 29 June 2012
Graph created with the scope of the market - prepared by Chen Wen - Tzu
Immediately after the output, the stronger Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar as the strongest GDP increases support for a rate hike by the Bank of Canada in the coming months. At the time of this report, the pair USDCAD was trading at C$ 1.0167.

.. Loonie Mixed as Canadian Retail Sales Rebound, Leading Indicators Advance

23 May 2012 13:48 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: Canada Retail Sales Bounced 0.4 Percent, Leading Indicators Rose 0.3 Percent> Positive Signal for Economic Growth Coming to the Middle of the Year > CAD Mixed
Retail Sales
Canadian retail sales rebounded more than forecast in March after February pullback, fueled by higher sales in motor vehicles, clothing, sporting goods, building material and garden equipment.
Sales in retail stores rose 0.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted C$39.05 billion in March, Ottawa-based Statistics Canada reported today. The print was higher than economist’s projection of 0.3 percent gain, according to Bloomberg News survey. The less volatile figure, excluding auto sector, modestly edged up 0.1 percent in Marchcompared to 0.5 percent increase widely predicted.Meanwhile, December’s reading was revised downwardly to a gain of 0.4 percent from a surge of 0.5 percent initially reported.
Gains were recorded in seven of eleven major categories that account for fifty-six percent of total retail sales in March. Sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers surged 1.2 percent as a result of 0.7 percent increase in receipts at new car dealers and 7.7% advance at other motor vehicle dealers. Similarly, building material and garden equipment posted 1.8 percent rise, a second consecutive monthly gain. Clothing and clothing accessories store sales also edged up 1.3 percent, largely attributable to 7.2 percent increase at shoe stores.
Regarding to region, retail sales climbed in four of thirteen major provinces in March. Most of gains were concentrated in Ontario (+1.2%) due to warmer than usual weather. On the contrary, News Brunswick registered the biggest decline of 1.5 percent.
Leading indicators
Another report issued by Statistics Canada at the same time showed that the Canada’s composite leading indicators rose for the tenth straight month in April on substantial improvement in housing sectors. The index surged 0.3 percent last month, matching with consensus forecast from Bloomberg Survey. Meanwhile, March reading was downwardy revised to a gain of 0.3 percent from an advance of 0.4 percent initially estimated.
The composite leading indicator comprised of ten components which significantly affect cyclical activity in the economy and together represent major categories of Gross Domestic Product. Seven of ten components registered gains in April compared to eight in the previous month.
Housing index advanced 3.5 percent, mainly contributed to the gain in April leading indicators. The financial components remained positive, as did employment in services. In contrast, manufacturing components deteriorated. New orders fell for the second month in the row (-1.2%) while the ratio of shipments and inventories have flatted.
USDCAD 1-minute Chart: May 23, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Trang Nguyen
The Canadian dollar was traded mixed ahead North American session today as the loonie strengthens versus high-yielding currencies (Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar) but weakens versus safe-haven currencies (U.S. dollar, Japanese yen and Swiss franc). As can be seen from the 1-minute USDCAD chart above, the loonie immediately weakens 20 pips versus the greenback in the minutes following the retail sales and leading indicator reports. Nonetheless, the loonie quickly saw correction after ten minutes and edged 35 pips higher to $C1.021 per U.S. dollar.

@ Crude Oil Tumbles Could Force US Dollar to Surge vs. Canadian Dollar

Sharp losses in Crude Oil prices have sent the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) higher against the Canadian Dollar, and further losses would favor USDCAD gains.
Commodities such as Crude Oil, Gold, and Silver have sold off sharply amidst clear tensions across financial markets—sending the US Dollar higher. This effect is particularly pronounced against commodity-sensitive currencies such as the Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar, and New Zealand Dollar.
The short-term correlation between Crude oil prices and the Canadian Dollar trades near record strength, and further Crude Oil weakness would likely result in USDCAD gains. The NYMEX contract trades dangerously close to year-to-date lows near the $95.44. A substantial break lower could force the USDCAD to trade above critical resistance at C$1.0050.
Forex Correlations Summary
View forex correlations to the SPDR Gold ETF Trust (GLD), United States Oil Fund ETF (USO), SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA), UK FTSE 100 Index, and IShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) prices.

GLD	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	-0.55	-0.14	-0.61	-0.14	0.46	0.62	0.17
1 Month	0.41	0.24	-0.45	0.43	-0.09	0.51	-0.56
3 Month	0.47	0.20	-0.20	0.41	-0.18	0.40	-0.48
1 Year	0.18	0.16	-0.18	0.24	-0.17	0.24	-0.27
USO	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	0.32	0.11	0.80	0.13	-0.69	0.42	0.06
1 Month	0.53	0.31	0.22	0.57	-0.61	0.63	-0.45
3 Month	0.40	0.35	0.19	0.53	-0.53	0.56	-0.39
1 Year	0.47	0.36	-0.01	0.63	-0.62	0.58	-0.52
DIA	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	0.48	0.09	0.91	0.06	-0.74	0.20	0.09
1 Month	0.57	0.41	0.34	0.66	-0.77	0.59	-0.49
3 Month	0.44	0.44	0.30	0.61	-0.69	0.55	-0.40
1 Year	0.65	0.55	-0.07	0.80	-0.82	0.75	-0.69
FTSE100	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	0.86	0.22	0.90	-0.15	-0.73	-0.01	0.05
1 Month	0.64	0.45	0.49	0.57	-0.75	0.57	-0.42
3 Month	0.47	0.40	0.25	0.62	-0.71	0.59	-0.42
1 Year	0.47	0.38	-0.03	0.70	-0.67	0.65	-0.56
SLV	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	-0.34	-0.25	-0.45	-0.39	0.42	0.56	0.40
1 Month	0.58	0.45	-0.07	0.56	-0.35	0.59	-0.60
3 Month	0.54	0.35	-0.12	0.57	-0.44	0.57	-0.57
1 Year	0.33	0.26	-0.14	0.39	-0.37	0.38	-0.39
Perfect Positive Correlation:				1.00
Perfect Negative Correlation:				-1.00

GLD	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	-0.55	-0.14	-0.61	-0.14	0.46	0.62	0.17
1 Month	0.41	0.24	-0.45	0.43	-0.09	0.51	-0.56
3 Month	0.47	0.20	-0.20	0.41	-0.18	0.40	-0.48
1 Year	0.18	0.16	-0.18	0.24	-0.17	0.24	-0.27
USO	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	0.32	0.11	0.80	0.13	-0.69	0.42	0.06
1 Month	0.53	0.31	0.22	0.57	-0.61	0.63	-0.45
3 Month	0.40	0.35	0.19	0.53	-0.53	0.56	-0.39
1 Year	0.47	0.36	-0.01	0.63	-0.62	0.58	-0.52
DIA	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	0.48	0.09	0.91	0.06	-0.74	0.20	0.09
1 Month	0.57	0.41	0.34	0.66	-0.77	0.59	-0.49
3 Month	0.44	0.44	0.30	0.61	-0.69	0.55	-0.40
1 Year	0.65	0.55	-0.07	0.80	-0.82	0.75	-0.69
FTSE100	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	0.86	0.22	0.90	-0.15	-0.73	-0.01	0.05
1 Month	0.64	0.45	0.49	0.57	-0.75	0.57	-0.42
3 Month	0.47	0.40	0.25	0.62	-0.71	0.59	-0.42
1 Year	0.47	0.38	-0.03	0.70	-0.67	0.65	-0.56
SLV	EURUSD	GBPUSD	USDJPY	AUDUSD	USDCAD	NZDUSD	USDOLLAR
1 Week	-0.34	-0.25	-0.45	-0.39	0.42	0.56	0.40
1 Month	0.58	0.45	-0.07	0.56	-0.35	0.59	-0.60
3 Month	0.54	0.35	-0.12	0.57	-0.44	0.57	-0.57
1 Year	0.33	0.26	-0.14	0.39	-0.37	0.38	-0.39
Perfect Positive Correlation:				1.00
Perfect Negative Correlation:				-1.00

US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate (lhs)
NYMEX West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (rhs)
Correlation between US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate and Crude Oil Prices
The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) remains strongly correlated to oil prices, and that link is especially strong between the USD/Canadian Dollar exchange rate and the NYMEX WTI Crude Oil Contract. The Canadian Dollar sold off sharply (USDCAD rallied) as oil prices saw their biggest single-week decline since September, 2011.
If we go back to similar moves in 2011, we saw the USDCAD rally from C$0.9800 to highs of C$1.0660 in mere weeks. But the NYMEX Crude Oil contract fell from $90 to $75 in that same stretch—good for a 17% decline. A similar peak-to-trough move would put the front-month contract at $88; it traded at $96.50 at time of writing.
Could another $8.50 decline in Crude Oil prices be enough to push the USDCAD to $1.0660? History says it should be. Yet Canadian Dollar positioning shows a surge in speculative USDCAD short positions. In other words—many people are positioned for weakness and would not likely let the USDCAD break higher without a fight.