::Eyes of gold for the first positive month since January - critical next week

June 16, 2012 16: 11 GMT  fundamental forecasts for gold: neutral Gold is significantly stronger at the end of trade this week with the metal precious progress of 2.09% to nearly $1626 in New York, marking its biggest weekly advance since the first week of June. The price of bullion has increased steadily throughout the week risk of major event of the week next with elections key in Greece and the decision of FOMC rate on tap. The rise in the price of gold is accompanied by a decrease in the value of the greenback which closed the week off the coast of 0.80% after the G20 leaders cited of the preparations for a coordinated global response counter offshore risk of a liquidity crunch that the actors of the market of weight the consequences of a Greek-euro exit.
All eyes will be fixed on the Greece this weekend at the head of voters return to the polls for parliamentary elections with the likely outcome determine the future of the countries of the Euro area. With the global central banks reaffirming their commitment to provide additional liquidity should the Greek vote rile markets, it is probably however will remain well supported as the injection of liquidity invites investors to move from currency fiat on inflation concerns. While the results of the election will weigh heavily on the broader risk appetite, which is more crucial to the prospects for gold are how major global central banks - the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank - to meet a disappointing outcome of the elections. Indeed, chatter, 14 June suggested that the g-20 leaders discussed a coordinated response around the world to help support the euro. While we suspect an important announcement over the weekend, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve policy offers clues where this can occur.
The decision of rate FOMC Wednesday, highlights the risk of event more important for the precious metal. With national economic data begins to soften even once, recent speech of the Fed officials suggests that there is a growing split within the Federal Reserve with respect to start a new round of easing quantitative or not. Thus, the implications of the FOMC decision next week for gold can be significant participants of the market begin to factor in the likelihood of more fed of relaxation. Look for the value of the dollar offers clarity with the dollar likely to come under substantial pressure should officials signal intention to intervene in markets to support the fragile recovery. Such a scenario would likely fuel a rally in gold that takes the precious metal through resistance key to $1628.
From a technical point of view, gold remains within dating descending channel training to senior February with the closing of the week price just below the confluence of the resistance of the chain and the tracing of Fibonacci 38.2% from February 29 down $1628. A breach of this level exposes the objectives of resistance to the confluence of the 50 day moving average and the tracing of 50% to $1659 and the moving average 200 days to $1675. Interim support is the responsibility of the tracing by 23.6% to $1590 and is supported by the lower $ 1545 of June. It is important to note that the month last gold has broken below trendline support dating back to 2008 with only a full commitment to ease more the Fed likely to rehabilitate the break. Look for prices to benchmarks in the coast of the evolution of the situation in Greece and the decision of rate FOMC increased speculation of more comprehensive Bank Central facilitating likely to keep many gold argued early next week.
DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the world market currencies.
Learn forex trading with a free account of practice and exchange of graphics of FXCM.
16 June 2012 16: 11 GMT

::: EURUSD Inches Towards 1.26 Ahead of Critical Weekend

-Americans See Biggest Home Equity Jump in 60 Years - Bloomberg
-BofA Beating JPMorgan as BNP Leads French Lenders Retreat - Bloomberg
-Merkel Talks Tough as Spain Debt Costs Soar - Reuters
-Greece's Rural Voters 'on a Tightrope' - WSJ
-Spanish Crisis Deepens - WSJ
Asian/European Session Summary
Ranges were tight in the overnight with most of the majors (save the New Zealand Dollar, which was too by seemingly hawkish commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand) trading in less than half of a percent range against the US Dollar. The US Dollar's high was set early in the session, considering that the rating agencies Egan-Jones and Moody's Investor Services downgraded Spain near the end of each after the US session close yesterday, putting downside pressure on high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets in early Asia today.
Heading into the European session, with the Australian Dollar and the Euro leading the slide, the US Dollar posted a solid comeback following an exceptionally disappointing Italian bond auction. Italy sold €3 billion in 2015 bonds, with yields soaring to 5.30 percent from 3.91 percent a month ago. €627 million in 2019 bonds, with yields up from 5.21 percent to 6.10 percent; and €873 million in 202 bonds, with yields soaring from 5.33 percent to 6.13 percent. Indeed, these bond yields are approaching unsustainable levels, and this has to be of concern to European policymakers; the market is slowly moving on to Italy (though given recent correlations to sovereign credit default swaps, it appears the EURUSD has been tracking the situation in Greece and Spain more so than the one in Italy over the past week).
And while high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets fell back after the Italian bond auction, it is worth noting that some weak US data spurred more speculation for a third round of quantitative easing ahead of the US cash equity open today. But that wasn't the big news; the commentary from Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank (Germany's central bank) and a voting member on the European Central Bank's Governing Council, is the key commentary on the day.
Taking the wind out of hopes for tax union, the head of the Bundesbank said that such a move would require significant "changes to European Union treaties", and that a fiscal union still wouldn't can't solve the issues of "high unemployment" and "poor competitiveness." Furthermore, in a hint about his stance on an ECB rate cut but looser monetary policy, Mr. Weidmann said that its still "too soon to speculate" about the ECB offering another longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) and that higher inflation rates in the Euro-zone (which would come after an ECB rate cut, in theory) and that it would diminish the central bank's credibility.
Taking a look at credit, Spanish 10-year notes remain significantly weaker, with the yield rising by 14 7-basis points to 6.835 percent. After the auction, the Italian 10 - year note yield has fallen to 6.118 percent.
5 - Min Chart EURUSD: June 14, 2012

Charts Created using Marketscope - Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The New Zealand Dollar is the top performer (again), with the NZDUSD appreciating by 1.02 percent. The Canadian Dollar is also stronger, up by 0.55 percent against the US Dollar. The Euro has rebounded off of its session lows and has exploded back to the 1.25 exchange rate against the US Dollar, with the EURUSD appreciating by 0.34 percent. The Japanese Yen is also up, with the USDJPY depreciating by 0.25 percent.
24 Hour Price Action

Key Levels: 14: 30 GMT


Thus far, on Thursday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading lower, at 10150.07 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10182.23. The index has traded mostly lower, with the high at 10188.17 and the low at 10147.81.

"" NZD snaps Six-Day Losing Streak - USDJPY eyes critical resistance

Every day winners and losers


The New Zealand dollar is the top of the page against the greenback with an advance of 0.52% at the end of the European trade. Sense of market risk more broadly remains well take a respite from heavy selling pressure seen last week. NZD/USD bounced to the broad support trendline dating from March 2001 to 0.7550 with the daily RSI suddenly reverse after reaching extreme levels of oversold not seen since August 2008. Resistance daily superstructure now stands with 78.6% Fibonacci allows taken of the advance of the mid-December at 0.7680 and is supported by 61.8% to 0.7850 allows. A break below the trendline support December lows to 0.7460 of the eyes.

The graph of the scalp shows the NZD/USD continues to trade in a descending channel training dating back to April 26, with the pair currently holding just below the intermediate resistance to 0.7610. Look for the pair to stay even at these levels in a rebound in appetite for broader risk with a likely violation above that mark considering the superstructures target in the resistance of the channel, the tracing of 78.6% to 0.7680 and 0.7750 Fibonacci. Interim support is based in 0.7525 supported by the low to 7460 of December.

Indicators of levels

The Japanese yen is weaker against the dollar, with 0.38% loss in their activities. The USD/JPY has rebounded sharply out of the handle in 79 with the pair continue to trade through training of flag on the upper March. As we noted earlier in the month, our medium to long-term bias remained weighted superstructure with long entries promoted between the moving average 200 days to 78.50 and taken 61.8% Fibonacci allows of the advance in February to 79.15. Daily strength lies at the confluence of the tracing of 50% and resistance of the canal just above the handle of 80 with only a break the moving average of 200 days, negating our directional bias.

The graph of the scalp shows the USD/JPY holding just below the extension of Fibonacci 61.8% levied ridges on 14 March and April 20 to 79,35. Superstructure initial targets are in the eyes of the extension of 50% to 79.80 and the resistance of the channel. A break above this level also provides subsequent conviction with targets of resistance seen the extension of 38.2% to 80.30, 80.55 and 23.6% to 80.85 extension. Interim support rests with the 79 figure supported by the extension of 78.6% 78.75 and 78.50. Note that while the negotiation of the conditions of the yen, are not conducive to the scalping, we long a fourth of our size of typical trade in figure with our initial goal in the eyes above the handle of 80. A violation over the channel resistance suggests that the correction on the highs of March may be complete with such a scenario to see losses accelerated for the yen. A change in sense of larger market for risk appetite would probably be the necessary catalyst for breach of the superstructure.