::Eyes of gold for the first positive month since January - critical next week

June 16, 2012 16: 11 GMT  fundamental forecasts for gold: neutral Gold is significantly stronger at the end of trade this week with the metal precious progress of 2.09% to nearly $1626 in New York, marking its biggest weekly advance since the first week of June. The price of bullion has increased steadily throughout the week risk of major event of the week next with elections key in Greece and the decision of FOMC rate on tap. The rise in the price of gold is accompanied by a decrease in the value of the greenback which closed the week off the coast of 0.80% after the G20 leaders cited of the preparations for a coordinated global response counter offshore risk of a liquidity crunch that the actors of the market of weight the consequences of a Greek-euro exit.
All eyes will be fixed on the Greece this weekend at the head of voters return to the polls for parliamentary elections with the likely outcome determine the future of the countries of the Euro area. With the global central banks reaffirming their commitment to provide additional liquidity should the Greek vote rile markets, it is probably however will remain well supported as the injection of liquidity invites investors to move from currency fiat on inflation concerns. While the results of the election will weigh heavily on the broader risk appetite, which is more crucial to the prospects for gold are how major global central banks - the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank - to meet a disappointing outcome of the elections. Indeed, chatter, 14 June suggested that the g-20 leaders discussed a coordinated response around the world to help support the euro. While we suspect an important announcement over the weekend, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve policy offers clues where this can occur.
The decision of rate FOMC Wednesday, highlights the risk of event more important for the precious metal. With national economic data begins to soften even once, recent speech of the Fed officials suggests that there is a growing split within the Federal Reserve with respect to start a new round of easing quantitative or not. Thus, the implications of the FOMC decision next week for gold can be significant participants of the market begin to factor in the likelihood of more fed of relaxation. Look for the value of the dollar offers clarity with the dollar likely to come under substantial pressure should officials signal intention to intervene in markets to support the fragile recovery. Such a scenario would likely fuel a rally in gold that takes the precious metal through resistance key to $1628.
From a technical point of view, gold remains within dating descending channel training to senior February with the closing of the week price just below the confluence of the resistance of the chain and the tracing of Fibonacci 38.2% from February 29 down $1628. A breach of this level exposes the objectives of resistance to the confluence of the 50 day moving average and the tracing of 50% to $1659 and the moving average 200 days to $1675. Interim support is the responsibility of the tracing by 23.6% to $1590 and is supported by the lower $ 1545 of June. It is important to note that the month last gold has broken below trendline support dating back to 2008 with only a full commitment to ease more the Fed likely to rehabilitate the break. Look for prices to benchmarks in the coast of the evolution of the situation in Greece and the decision of rate FOMC increased speculation of more comprehensive Bank Central facilitating likely to keep many gold argued early next week.
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16 June 2012 16: 11 GMT

$ Australian Dollar Purchased Following Positive Employment Report

Employment data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics show an addition of 15,500 jobs to the Aussie economy, causing the unemployment rate to fall to 4.9 percent. The rise in jobs drew mostly from part time work, which added 26,000 jobs to payroll. Full time work experienced has 10,500 drop in workers. The overall participation rate fell to 65.2 percent from 65.4 percent a month earlier.

Analysts expected the unemployment rate to rise to 5.3 percent this month, a 5,000 job decrease in total employment, and a flat participation rate. Neither analysts nor the markets expected an improvement of such magnitude this month, and traders were forced to price in the change, boosting the AUDUSD upward. Though overall jobs increased in number, the drop in full time employment as well as the unexpected decline in the participation rate tempered the positive trading sense response to the lower unemployment rate. Nonetheless, the figures did suggest to analysts a decreased likelihood of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut next month. Before the release, markets expected a 96 percent probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the RBA in the upcoming period. Following the release, those expectations fell to 68 percent probability.

Positive Turnaround in UK Unemployment Sparks Surge in Sterling

18 April 2012 09:15 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: UK unemployment comes in better than expected -> Signs of a stabilizing economy support PM’s budget deficit cuts -> Sterling gains against dollar and euro

UK unemployment dropped for the first time in almost a year, to 8.3% on the month, beating analysts’ expectations for an unchanged rate of 8.4%. Jobless-benefits claims rose by 3,600 during the month of March to a total of 1.61 million; but the rise in claims was much lower than analysts’ expectations of a monthly gain of 6 thousand.

The unemployment rate was measured by the International Labour Organization and the jobless claims were provided by the Office of National Statistics.

The better than expected unemployment rates can be seen as a sign of a stabilizing economy, and the data support Prime Minister David Cameron’s attempt to cut the budget deficit.

 Cable jumped on news of the positive jobs reports and the simultaneous Bank of England minutes release that signaled a smaller chance of raising quantitative easing. The pair made new weekly highs by crossing the 1.5900 mark and come closer to the resistance level 1.6061. Sterling also rose sharply against the Euro following the data release.

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18 April 2012 09:15 GMT 

Euro Unmoved Following Positive Industrial Production Data

12 April 2012 10: 02 GMT the takeaway: industrial production in the euro area increased by 0.5% in February, bat the expectations of analysts-> low production in Germany prevails over 13% increase to the Netherlands-> stays at the same level after the report to the EUR/USD

Eurozone industrial production increased 0.5% for the month of February, led by the France and the Netherlands. Actual production beat average estimates of a decline of 0.2%. However, the figures were 1.8% lower in February of the previous year, as expected by analysts.

The number can be seen as a sign of economic stabilization for the euro area; and a drop in industrial production in Germany and Spain was offset by the improvement of the production in France and the Netherlands. The German numbers released last week were not fully represented in number of today as the collapse of the production of the construction was not included in the survey of the euro area.

EUR/USD do not strongly respond to better than expected data. The pair rose and fell following the release, but who later moved back to the initial level.

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12 April 2012 10: 02 GMT

European Market Update: German ZEW Expectations survey turns positive for the first time since May 2011; China reiterates support for Europe

 Tuesday, February 14, 2012 5:54:21 AM
 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: German ZEW Expectations survey turns positive for the first time since May 2011; China reiterates support for Europe
***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €1.1B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.2B prior; €510.2B parked in deposit facility vs. €507.9B prior
- (ES) Spain Jan ECB Banks Borrowings: €161.4B v €132.4B m/m
- (IN) India Jan Monthly Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.7%e
- (FI) Finland Dec Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.8% prelim
- (SE) Sweden Jan PES Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prior
- (HU) Hungary Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 2.1% v 1.7%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Final Industrial Production M/M: -7.4% v -7.4% prelim; Y/Y: -6.7% v -6.7% prelim
- (ES) Spain Dec Industrial Orders Y/Y: -4.0% v -1.6% prior
- (FR) France Jan Real Retail Sales (seasonally adj) M/M: +0.6% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.7% v -3.1% prior - Bank of France Survey
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Retail Sales: 1.0% v 1.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Q4 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.5% prior
- (UK) Dec DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.3% prior
- (UK) Jan CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e - (UK) Jan RPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.1%e; RPI-X Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.2%e; Retail Price Index: 238.0 v 238.4e
- (DE) Germany Feb ZEW Economic Sentiment: +5.4 v -11.8e (first positive reading since May 2011); Current Conditions: 40.3 v 30.5e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -1.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb ZEW Economic Sentiment: -8,1 v -32.5 prior
- (GR) Greece Q4 Preliminary GDP: Y/Y: -7.0% v -5.0% prior
- (PT) Portugal Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -1.5%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.8%e v -1.7% prior
Fixed Income - (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €3.98B vs €3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2.5% 2017 DSL Bond; Avg Yield 1.347% v 1.777% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency sold total €5.44B vs. €4.5-5.5B indicated range in 12-Month and 18-Month Bills
- Sold €2.94B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.899% v 2.049% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3 x v 3.55x prior; Max Yield 1.949% v 2.150% prior
- Sold €2.5B in 18-month Bills; Avg Yield 2.308% v 2.399% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.88x v 3.23x prior; Max Yield 2.395% v 2.490% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €1.3B vs. €1.0B indicaqted in 13-week treasury bills; Avg Yield 4.61% v 4.64% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.70 x v 2.90x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €6.0B vs. €6.0B in 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bonds
- Sold €4.0B in 6.0% Nov 2014 BTPs; Avg Yield 3.41% v 4.83% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.22x prior
- Sold €687M in 3.0% Nov 2015 BTPs; Avg Yield 3.77%; Bid-to-cover: 2.37x
- Sold €1.31B in 4.0% Feb 2017 BTPs; Avg Yield 4.26% v 4.93% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.71x v 2.3x prior****Note: -
- (EU) ECB allotted €142.8B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender vs. €115Be
- (EU) ECB allotted €14.3B in 1-Month Tender vs. €30.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B in 3-Month Bills; Avg yield 7.32% v 7.32% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.52x v 2.69x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total €3.2B vs. €3.0B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold €1.80B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.291% v 0.506% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.51x v 2.70x prior
- Sold €1.41B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.892% v 1.162% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.64x v 2.06x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Moody's downgrades 6 European sovereigns (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Malta) lowers outlook on several AAA (UK, Austria and France)
- BOJ sets an inflation target (and cranks up the printing press); Announced further easing measures (first since Oct)
- Fed's Williams (voting member): Vital to keep policy throttle wide open.
- Germany ZEW Survey registers its first positive reading since May 2011
- UK inflation data declines in Jan as expected by BOE
Equities: FTSE 100 +0.20% at 5915, DAX +0.60% at 6779, CAC-40 +0.30% at 3395, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 16,504, SMI +0.10% at 6182
- European shares traded mixed during today's session hurt by Moody's action which downgraded 6 European states, including Italy and Spain. The most worrying action for the markets is Moody's cutting UK's and France's outlook to negative from stable. However, Italy sold its debt in the indicated range. Losses were limited after Germany's ZEW increased and was a positive number, beating analysts' estimates.
- In individual names, Thyssenkrupp [TKA.DE] fell after reporting a larger than expected loss. The steel maker had already stated that Q1 EBIT would be considerably lower than last year's and was unable to give an outlook for FY12. Swedbank [SWEDA.SE] reported a lower than expected operating profit although net interest income was higher than estimates. The bank however decided to withdraw its capital targets and would decide on new ones when the situation was more stable. Among winners, MAN [MAN.DE] reported better than expected earnings.
Speakers: - China Premier Wen met key European officials in Beijing and hereiterated that China was ready to "get more involved" to help Euro debt and maintained confidence in Euro. He also hoped EU maintained its stability and prosperity and supported strengthening of fiscal discipline in Europe
- EU President Van Rompuy welcomed China's PM Wen support for Europe and noted that both regions were becoming increasingly inter-dependent. China was making progress on its CNY currency rate and rebalancing its economy. China showed "solid interest" on EFSF investment
- EU's Barroso commented from Beijing that EU was doing what was necessary to restore confidence and that the region was seeking more investment access in China
- Austria Fin Min Fekter commented that she was confident that Greece would get more help. She noted that no Austrian banks have asked for aid
- Bank of Japan Gov Shirakawa commented at his post rate decision press conference that the BOJ would not end its inflation targeting until the 1% CPI rise was in sight. He stressed that the BOJ would ensure Japan's economic recovery through its policy and that the central bank was not pressured by gov't in today's action but both did share the perspective of what is deemed as price stability. Today's decision meant buying JGBs at a faster pace
But not use JGB purchases for monetizing debt. The change in wording on prices aimed at clarifying BoJ's determination to deal with deflation.
- ZEW Economists commented after the better Feb data that the economic slowdown in Germany was unlikely to last as domestic demand expected to support economic growth. It stressed that a solution to Euro Zone crisis remained an important issue but progress with Greek creditors might have reduced uncertainty. Lastly it noted that Germany might see slight uplift in H2 2012
- ECB's Nowotny reiterated the central bank view that it did not see risk of inflation. He cautioned that Euro region needed to avoid the same fate as Japan's. The main objective was to avoid longer periods of stagnation.
- ECB's Coeure commented that the ECB should distribute profits on Greek debt to member nations who could use it to contribute to sustainability of Greek debt
- Bank of England released its inflation letter noting that inflation was falling broadly as expected and expected to hit around target of 2.0% by end of 2012. Impact of factors that pushed up inflation was now waning. CPI decline due to VAT and energy prices but cautioned that a risk of an oil shock was possible due to political tensions. Extent of CPI decline was highly uncertain with key uncertainties of wages and profit margin building. To focus on spare capacity and inflationary expectations and that the key policy outlook was the medium-term view
- France Fin Min Baroin commented on Moody's lower revision of the French sovereign outlook that the Govt will continue to seek an increase its economic growth and competitiveness. He noted that Moody's action was due to risks associated with the Euro Zone. He confirmed France 2012 GDP growth forecast of 0.5%
- Poland Fin Min Rostowski Greece's Euro exit would be less damaging at this time compared to 2011 but would pose legal obstacles. Greek default would have less impact with new EU policies because of the European Central Bank's liquidity measures. He noted that it was not clear how it would be possible for Greece to leave the euro zone under its legal system
- China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reiterated it stance to enhance monitoring of two-way cross-border capital flows and improve policy response to impact of capital flows.
- Turkey Econ Min Babacan commented that the country's 2011 imports came in at $240.8B and added that he was not comfortable with the level of imports
Currencies:
- The session shrugged off the initial effects of the multi-country European sovereign downgrade and revisions to AAA outlooks. The EUR/USD clawed its way from late Asian session lows of 1.3128 and moved above 1.32 handle by the NY morning following better German ZEW data and commentary of out China's Premier Wen.
- The USD/JPY was probing the upper end of its three-month range with 78.30 being the key resistance following the BOJ policy decision to set a inflation target. Some dealers noting that the continued threat of BOJ FX intervention would be more successful if enacted above the pivotal 78.30 level
- The GBP/USD recovered from its Far east session lows of 1.5686 after Moody's became the first major rating agency to cut the UK's sovereign outlook to negative. The pair was only slightly negative ahead of the NY morning at 1.5755
Political/ In the Papers:
- Portugal is to hold a fresh round of discussions with its international creditors this week before the next tranche of funds are set. Troika officials and the IMF will arrive Wednesday for a two-week review of the country. If approved, then it will be given the next tranche of €14.9B.
- The Independent looked at who could replace the current Bank of England Governor King next year when his term expires. The decision on the succession will be made by the Prime Minister, and advised by the Chancellor and the Cabinet Secretary. Note that the last two Governors were chosen from within the Bank, which places the leading internal candidate, the present deputy governor, Paul Tucker, in a strong position. Other candidates include Andy Haldane, external candidate Lord Turner, Sir John Vickers, John Varley, and former HSBC chairman Lord Green.
- The UK federation of trade unions, Trades Union Congress (TUC), released a report that finds true unemployment in the country may be as high as 6.3M, over twice the official figure of 2.68M released last month. The higher figure was found by using an American measure, which includes part-time employment due to the lack of full-time jobs, recent redundancies. TUC found that under-employment (those taking on temporary or part-time work because they cannot find permanent, full-time work) increased to 1.3M (record).
***Looking Ahead***
- (US) China Vice premier Xi Jinping will visit the White House on Feb 14th
- (IT) Italy PM Monti in Parliament
- 6:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.0%e v 6.8% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
- 6:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 10% 2013 and fixed 2022 Bonds
- 6:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2021 Inflation Linked Bonds
- 6:30 (DE) OECD chief Gurria presents German Economic Survey in Berlin
- 7:00 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 7-Day Term Deposits to offset Govt Bond purchases
- 7:00 (IC) Iceland Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.3% prior
- 7:30 (US) Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism: 95.0e v 93.8 prior
- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Jan M3 Money Supply: -1.4%e v +3.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Import Price Index M/M: +0.3%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.2%e v 8.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Jan Advance Retail Sales: 0.8%e v 0.1% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: +0.5%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior
- 8:45 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economy in Newark, Delaware
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2027-2060 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner testifies before Senate
- 10:00 (US) Dec Business Inventories: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico International Reserves w/e Feb 10th
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Vehicle Production: 211.0Ke v 180.2K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 115.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 171.3K prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.00B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut the Nominal Overnight Rate Target by 13bps to 4.88%
- 16:00 (KW) South Korea Jan Export Price Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior
- 16:00 (KW) South Korea Jan Import Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
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Asian Market Update: Risk appetite creeps back into the markets on positive Greece news; Japan contracts

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- (JP) JAPAN Q4 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: -0.6% V -0.3%E (biggest contraction since Q1); NOMINAL GDP Q/Q: -0.8% V -0.7%E; GDP ANNUALIZED: -2.3% V -1.3%E; 2011 GDP -0.9% (first decline in 2 years) >- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC HOME LOANS M/M: 2.3% V 1.8%E (7-month high); OWNER-OCCUPIED HOME LOAN VALUE: 2.0% V 2.4% PRIOR; INVESTMENT LENDING: 7.5% V 2.7% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN DEC TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: 1.4% V 0.8%E (6-month high)
- (IS) Israel Jan Trade Balance: -$2.2B v -$1.3B prior
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.6%
- S&P/ASX +0.9%
- Kospi +0.7%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.6%
- Singapore Straits Times +0.3%
- Shanghai Composite +0.3%
- Hang Seng +0.8%
- S&P Futures +0.5% at 1,347
- April gold +0.3% at $1,730/oz
- March Crude +1.0% at $99.62
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets started off the session tentative and mixed despite Greece's parliament passing the austerity measures in a vote of 199 in favor and 74 against with only a majority of 151 needed. EUR/USD extended its gains above $1.3240. All day Sunday Greeks ravaged the center of Athens, setting 10 buildings on fire as tens of thousands demonstrated ahead of the vote. Only after all markets were open did Asian equities all climb into strong positive territory. Shanghai remained under some pressure however due to January new yuan loans coming in weaker than anticipated and China Premier Wen's comments saying that the Govt may fine tune economic policy in Q1; Closely monitoring global conditions. He also affirmed to sticking to current policies to cool the housing market. Housing developers traded in Hong Kong and China fell on the news. USD/JPY declined , testing ¥77.55 after Q4 GDP contracted more than expected. Crude gained nearly 1% after Overseas Shipholding Group, Frontline and owners controlling more than 100 supertankers have announced they will not carry Iran crude. Copper and silver contracts both gained a half a percent in the session. Wheat and corn also saw a strong jump higher on the news that US farmers have hit a record high planting season on continued high prices. 10-yr Treasury notes were little changes in the session at 2%.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) China govt calling for banks to rollover loans to local govts by as much as 4 years - FT
- (HK) Hong Kong Financial Sec Tsang: May see contraction in Q1 GDP if there is a slump in exports
- (GR) Greece PM Papademos: The vote will consolidate our place in the euro and avoids default, other option likely to take Greece out of the euro; Sees 2.5-3.0% GDP targets in 2014 and 2015
- (HK) According to Midland Realty over the weekend 60 real estate deals happened v 42 last weekend in the primary market - HK Standard
- (CN) PBoC may ease banks loan loss reserve requirements - China Business News
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK): Will keep accommodative policy stance to help protect Korea from EU debt crisis
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: Japan economy as a whole is continuing upward trend; Expect to continue a moderate recovery trend but will keep an eye on downside risks
***Equities***
- ANZ.AU: Bank workers union: ANZ will be cutting a substantial number of jobs in addition to the 130 it announced last month - Australian press >- STEL.SG: Reports Q3 Net S$902M v S$922Me; Rev S$4.83B v $S4.70B y/y
- United Co. RUSAL PLC, 486.HK: Reports FY11 alumina production 8.2M tons, +4% y/y; Aluminium production 4.1M tons, +1% y/y
- JBH.AU: Reports H1 Net A$79.6M v A$87.9M y/y; Rev A$1.77B v A$1.7B y/y
- CBA.AU: Raises variable mortgage rate by 0.1% to 7.41%, cites higher wholesale funding costs
- NAB.AU: Raises variable mortgage rate by 0.09%
- LEI.AU: Reports H1 Net A$340M v A$216.7M y/y; Rev A$12.2B v A$9.7B y/y
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (CN) PBoC has inquired regarding demand for repo sales - financial press
- (AU) Newcastle Coal Exports +16% v -18.0% prior in week ended Feb 13th