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Showing posts with label weakness. Show all posts
Showing posts with label weakness. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

$ US Dollar Holds Support as S & P 500 Signals Weakness Ahead

12 June 2012 strategist 02: 33 GMT prevail: the US Dollar has deflected another attempt to push the price past key support S & P 500 technical positioning while warns of renewed weakness before.
S & P 500 - set prices in a model of candlestick bearish engulfing under load-enabled-resistance a trend line fall of mid-April, that the subway is coming. Initial support aligns to 1292.90, with a break in the 1265.30 exhibition. Trend line resistance is now at 1328.90, with a jump over this targeting to barriers to the 1357.40 and 1392.10.
US_Dollar_Holds_Support_as_SP_500_Signals_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Holds Support as S&P 500 Signals Weakness AheadDaily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Crude oil - price takes 83.30 14.6% of Fibonacci expansion support, challenge the barrier of 23.6% to 81.07. A break below this limit is 80.00 figure and 38.2% Fib to 77.33. 14.6% Expansion has been redesigned as a short term resistance.
US_Dollar_Holds_Support_as_SP_500_Signals_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_6.png, US Dollar Holds Support as S&P 500 Signals Weakness AheadDaily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Gold - price remain wedged between 1599.17 and 1582.10, 50% tracing 38.2% Fibonacci levels, respectively. A break already exposes the 61.8% Fib to 1616.23, a barrier reinforced by a trend line that falls in place since early March. Alternatively, a further down the target 1554.73 support, followed by the region of 50 1522-1532 45.
US_Dollar_Holds_Support_as_SP_500_Signals_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_7.png, US Dollar Holds Support as S&P 500 Signals Weakness AheadDaily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Us DOLLAR - price continue to search direction over support in the region of 10134-43. A break below opens the door to a challenge to the expansion of Fibonacci 38.2% to 10066. Short term resistance aligns to 10220, 61.8% Fib with already impaired targeting 76.4 percent to 10316 border.
US_Dollar_Holds_Support_as_SP_500_Signals_Weakness_Ahead_body_Picture_8.png, US Dollar Holds Support as S&P 500 Signals Weakness AheadDaily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

||| Sterling Strong: highlights of data housing good Continental weakness

02 May 2012 08: 21 GMT  THE TAKEAWAY: Better than expected UK housing data props Sterling against the Euro, with less than ideal numbers from the continent slowing down the single currencyMortgage approvals in the United Kingdom rose during March, sparking a bout of strength in the Pound against the Euro and US Dollar. 49,900 mortgages were approved versus the 48,000 approvals forecasted by a team of economists.
terling_Strong_as_Good_Housing_Data_Highlights_Continental_Weakness__body_BOE.png, Sterling Strong as Good Housing Data Highlights Continental WeaknessSterling strengthened against the beleaguered Euro as positive the UK data contrasted with less than ideal numbers from the continent. EUR/GBP fell to fresh yearly intraday lows.
Although the data encouraged some market participants, especially since in coincided with a better than expected PMI manufacturing out of the UK, the outlook for policymakers remains bleak.A GDP contraction in 2012's first quarter has pushed the UK into its first double-dip recession since the 1970s, and pressure on UK officials is expected to increase. UK PM David Cameron has faced criticism for promoting austerity instead of stimulus andthe Bank of England recently said growth could contract because of weak construction during the Jubilee holiday season.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

-$- US Dollar Weakness Driven by More Than Just Risk On Trade

30 April 2012 05:42 GMT Currency strength from risk on trade and Fed policy expectations Fed still not ready to fully eliminate possibility for additional QE Pound emerges as major beneficiary of latest round of USD weakness Yen extends gains and looks poised for additional strength Aussie could see volatility ahead of highly anticipated RBA Still looking to sell EUR/USD rallies; see “Trade of the Day” below The US Dollar has come under some intensified pressure in recent sessions, and the across the board underperformance in the buck suggests that there could be more at play than simply risk on market drivers. While there has been clear evidence of a resumption of risk buying over the past several sessions, which can be attributed to some of the weakness in the Greenback, we would also suggest that market participants are once again looking at the Fed and seeing a central bank that is not necessarily as ready to look to reverse policy as some may have thought. A couple of weeks back the possibility for another round of quantitative easing seemed like it had come off the table, but the latest FOMC meeting has not ruled out the possibility and we suspect that this could be the source of an acceleration in US Dollar selling.
Nevertheless, we would still not recommend getting overly bearish on the buck just yet, especially with the Euro only just now about to test some key resistance by 1.3300 and still locked within a downtrend off of the yearly highs. Other major currencies like the Pound are also well overbought against the US Dollar right now, and this further adds to the case that the Greenback could see renewed strength ahead. Similarly, the Canadian Dollar has rallied to fresh multi-month highs, and at current levels, USD/CAD could start to become more attractive as a long opportunity. Other currency pairs and crosses worth watching this week include USD/JPY, which has dropped back below the previous April lows, and now threatens a deeper pullback into the 79.00’s, and EUR/GBP, which is technically oversold and approaching some major multi-month support by 0.8065.
Moving on, key event risk in the early week comes in the form of the RBA rate decision on Tuesday, and we believe that this result could have a broader influence on trade that extends beyond the Australian Dollar and into risk sentiment. Aussie has been very well correlated to risk, and given the expected 25bp rate cut on softer economic data and inflation, the RBA decision could serve as a reminder to investors that all is not entirely well within the global economy and that there is in fact a good deal of risk that still needs to be priced in. One of these risks is China and the impact a slowdown in this economy could have across the globe. We contend that the impact will be quite large and most detrimental to the correlated commodity bloc and emerging market currencies. 

TRADE OF THE DAY
US_Dollar_Weakness_Driven_by_More_Than_Just_Risk_On_Trade_body_eur.png, US Dollar Weakness Driven by More Than Just Risk On Trade
 EUR/USD: (This recommendation was issued last week but the entry and stop have been revised. See below.) Although the latest rally has been impressive, we contend the market is still locked within a more well defined medium to longer-term downtrend off of the 2008 record highs, and as such, looking to sell rallies in 2012 is the preferred strategy. The rally has now extended beyond 1.3200 and from here we see scope for additional upside through 1.3300. However, once the 1.3300 level is tested and broken, there is a very compelling technical argument to be made for a bearish resumption. A closer look at the 1.3300 level shows a confluence of resistance which includes the obvious psychological barrier itself, some falling trend-line resistance off of the February 2012 peak, the upper bollinger band, and a very attractive 78.6% fib retrace off of the most recent March-April, 1.34400-1.3000 high-low move. As such, we really like the idea of fading and overshoots beyond 1.3300 and will place our entry accordingly. STRATEGY: SELL AT 1.3320 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP-LOSS ONLY ON ANY DAILY CLOSE (5PM NY TIME) ABOVE 1.3420. 

ECONOMIC CALENDAR
US_Dollar_Weakness_Driven_by_More_Than_Just_Risk_On_Trade_body_Picture_1.png, US Dollar Weakness Driven by More Than Just Risk On Trade

>> More view consolidation come before the new cycle of weakness Scandi

EUR/Sek setbacks have once been very well supported in advance the level of 8.75 and the market appears to once more be tempting to carve a bottom for the new force to the area of 8.90 on upcoming sessions. Ultimately, only back below 8.75 deny and gives reason to worry.
USD/Sek remains very well supported on any form of dip and risk here is force to upper range several days recently by 6.88. A break above will accelerate, then just one back below 6.57 delays.
USD/Nok even though the market has been confined to a consolidation of several days, dips have been very well supported and we continue to see the evidence of a possible breach of this range in reverse. Locate rear thrust over 5.84 to confirm prejudices and to accelerate the gains. Only back under 5.65 would delay and give reason to worry.
EUR/NokLooks to be finally attempts to establish a basic shape after very well provided in recent weeks. The last break back above 7,49 triggered a a double bottom that has already achieved its goal of 7.60 area. From there, look for additional gains to 7.75 in the coming weeks. Ultimately, only return 7.45 under deadlines.

Friday, April 27, 2012

>> Weakness of fresh Scandi begins to materialize as expected

EUR/Sek Setbacks have once again been very well supported ahead of the 8.75 level and the market looks to once again be attempting to carve a bottom in favor of renewed strength back towards the 8.90 area over the coming sessions. Ultimately, only back below 8.75 negates and gives reason for concern.
USD/Sek Remains very well supported on any form of a dip, and risks from here are for continued strength back towards the recent multi-day range highs by 6.88. A break above will accelerate further, while only back below 6.57 delays.
USD/Nok Although the market has been confined to a multi-day consolidation, dips have been very well supported and we continue to see evidence of an eventual break of this range to the upside. Look for a push back above 5.28 to confirm bias and accelerate gains. Only back under 5.65 would delay and give reason for concern.
EUR/NokLooks to be finally attempting to establish some form of a base after being very well offered over the past several weeks. The latest break back above 7.49 triggered a double bottom which has already reached its 7.60 objective area. From here, look for additional gains towards 7.75 over the coming weeks. Ultimately, only back under 7.45 delays.d charts from FXCM.

Friday, April 13, 2012

>> Do not hunt weakness of the Dollar melted it

Technical Strategist 12 April 2012 13: 12 GMT  FXCM Expo Videos
Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators
Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle
Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets
Afternoon Technicals (all charts)
Other TA (crosses, TOC, etc.)
Morning Notes:
EURUSD - The rally has extended in time but not much in price. Price has spiked slightly above the form 4th wave extreme (13163) and tested the underside of former trendline support as well (see 2nd chart). A turn lower is expected.

Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_eurusd.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It
Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_eurusd_1.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It
GBPUSD - The rally from the low has extended purpose treating strength as corrective is appropriate given the 5 wave decline from 16062. Currently testing the 61.8% tracing of the decline should turn now if the larger trend did indeed lower price reverse last week (don't forget that a key WEEKLY reversal formed last week).
Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_gbpusd.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It
AUDUSD - The April high at 10464 is the line in the sand for AUDUSD bears. Exceeding that level would shift focus to 10510 and 10595 (former media). As long as price is below there, the trend is considered down and focus remains on the year to date low at 10145. Resistance is bolstered at the current level by the underside of form trendline support, channel resistance, 20 day average, and 200 day average.
Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_audusd.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Chase Dollar Weakness Here. Fade It

Technical Strategist 12 April 2012 13: 12 GMT  FXCM Expo Videos
Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators
Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle
Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets
Afternoon Technicals (all charts)
Other TA (crosses, TOC, etc.)
Morning Notes:
EURUSD - The rally has extended in time but not much in price. Price has spiked slightly above the form 4th wave extreme (13163) and tested the underside of former trendline support as well (see 2nd chart). A turn lower is expected.
Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_eurusd.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It
Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_eurusd_1.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It
GBPUSD - The rally from the low has extended purpose treating strength as corrective is appropriate given the 5 wave decline from 16062. Currently testing the 61.8% tracing of the decline should turn now if the larger trend did indeed lower price reverse last week (don't forget that a key WEEKLY reversal formed last week).
Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_gbpusd.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It
AUDUSD - The April high at 10464 is the line in the sand for AUDUSD bears. Exceeding that level would shift focus to 10510 and 10595 (former media). As long as price is below there, the trend is considered down and focus remains on the year to date low at 10145. Resistance is bolstered at the current level by the underside of form trendline support, channel resistance, 20 day average, and 200 day average.
Dont_Chase_Dollar_Weakness_Here_Sell_It_body_audusd.png, Don't Chase Dollar Weakness Here; Fade It

Monday, April 9, 2012

Weakness of the USD offers purchase opportunity, vulnerable JPY on the BoJ policy

Currency Analyst 09 April 2012 15:40 GMT   The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.02 percent lower from the open after moving 51 percent of its average true range, and we may see the greenback track sideways over the next 24-hours of trading as market participants remain offline for the Easter holiday. However, as Chairman Ben Bernanke is scheduled to speak at 19:15 GMT, the fresh batch of comments is likely to fuel increased volatility in the reserve currency, and we may see the central bank head talk down speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program as Fed officials anticipate to see a stronger recovery in 2012. In turn, the recent pullback in the USDOLLAR may provide a buying opportunity for currency traders, and we should see the greenback resume the advance from earlier this year as interest rate expectations pick up.  Indeed, speculation for QE3 resurfaced amid the dismal U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls for March, but we may see Mr. Bernanke continue to speak out against more easing as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants are increasing bets for a rate hike over the next 12-months, and the shift in the policy outlook reinforces a bullish outlook for the USD as the Fed looks to conclude its easing cycle in 2012. As the index maintains the upward trending channel from earlier this year, we are still looking for another run at the 78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement around 10,118, but the slew of central bank rhetoric on tap for this week may bring about a bullish breakout in the index as Fed officials continue to take note of the more robust recovery.
Two of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 0.20 percent decline in the Euro, while the Japanese Yen gained another 0.38 percent ahead of the Bank of Japan interest rate decision. Although the BoJ is widely expected to maintain its current policy in April, the central bank may show an increased willingness to expand monetary policy further as it pledges to meet the 1 percent target for inflation. As the BoJ continues to carry out its easing cycle, the divergence in the policy outlook should prop up the USDJPY, and we may see the pair resume the advance from earlier this year as the fundamental outlook for the world’s third-largest economy remains weak.

Saturday, April 7, 2012

** Australian Dollar Vulnerable as Data, Technicals Imply Weakness

Australian_Dollar_Vulnerable_as_Data_Technicals_Imply_Weakness_body_Picture_5.png, Australian Dollar Vulnerable as Data, Technicals Imply WeaknessAustralian_Dollar_Vulnerable_as_Data_Technicals_Imply_Weakness_body_Picture_6.png, Australian Dollar Vulnerable as Data, Technicals Imply Weakness
Fundamental Forecast for Australian Dollar: Bearish
The Australian dollar was off by 0.32% this week as a broad-based risk sell-off slammed global markets. European debt concerns have once again come into focus with yields on Spanish debt topping pre-LTRO levels not seen since December. While broader market sentiment has largely remained on the defensive, data out of the Australia this week has had its own impact on the Aussie with our medium-term bias remaining weighted to the downside.
Although the RBA left interest rates unchanged this week at 4.25% as expected, remarks made by Governor Glenn Stevens weighed heavily on the aussie as he noted that while the current policy remains “appropriate,” the board “judged the pace of output growth to be somewhat lower than earlier estimated, but also thought it prudent to see forthcoming key data on prices to reassess its outlook for inflation before considering further steps to ease monetary policy.” The comments fueled speculation for future rate cuts from the RBA with Credit Suisse overnight swaps now factoring in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut next month with twelve month expectations calling for more than 80 basis points in additional cuts.
Looking ahead to next week, trader will be closely eyeing data out of Australia with February home loans, consumer inflation expectations, and employment data on tap. Data this week showed building approvals plummet by a staggering 15.2% y/y in the month of February with consensus estimates calling for home loans to decline by another 4% m/m, down from a previous decline of 1.2% m/m. In light of the recent rhetoric form the RBA, investors will be watching Wednesday’s consumer inflation expectation print as the central bank weighs implications for further easing against price stability. Employment data steals the spotlight next week with estimates calling for the addition of just 6.5K jobs with the unemployment rate expected to rise to 5.3% from 5.2%. With persistent weakness in the housing sector and the labor market continuing to weigh on domestic growth prospects, look for the Aussie to remain under pressure as traders begin to factor in further easing from the central bank.
Key data out of China may also have larger implications on the Aussie with March trade balance, industrial production, CPI, PPI, retail sales, and 1Q real GDP on tap next week. As Australia’s largest trade partner, deepening concerns about further slowing in Chinese growth is likely to contribute to weakness in the Aussie as demand for Australian exports wanes. With European sovereign debt concerns coming back into focus, look for fears of a hard landing in the world’s second largest economy to also weigh on broader risk sentiment with a continuation of the risk sell-off seen at the start of the month likely to weigh heavily on higher yielding, growth-linked assets.
From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD has continued to trade within the confines of a well-defined descending channel formation dating back to the February 29th highs. Key daily support for the pair now rests with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken form the December 15th advance at 1.0240 with a break here eyeing subsequent support targets at the 1.02-figure, 1.0180 and the 2012 low at 1.0145. Should this level be compromised, look for accelerated Aussie losses with extended targets held at the 78.6% retracement at 1.0075. Topside daily resistance stands at the 50% retracement at 1.0360 backed closely by the confluence of the 100 & 200-day moving averages at 1.0388. Only a breach above this level would negate out medium-term bias with such a scenario eying subsequent resistance targets at the 38.2% retracement at 1.0475. With the results of today’s US employment report yet to be digested by broader markets, look for weakness in the high yielder to persist next week with rally’s offering favorable short entries on the AUDUSD. – MB

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Will the Weakness in Japanese Yen Continue?

Since the first day of February this year, the Japanese yen has continued its slide against most major currencies; offering a trend of weakness in the currency that has been seen only one other time since beginning of 2010. This article will examine the specifics of what is changing in the Japanese economy, and how Forex traders might be able to use this information in deciding an approach on ¥-based pairs.
In the article How a Currency can Change the World, we examined the effects of a currencies’ appreciation on a heavy export-based economy, and we saw that the effects can be damaging; potentially changing the prospects of an entire nation.
From mid-2007 until early this year (before February 1, 2012), we’ve seen the USDJPY currency pair move from over 120.00 to 80.00; A gain of 33% in the Yen against the US Dollar.
 Created with Marketscope/Trading Station
As we examined previously, this means that exports are less profitable; making Japanese products more expensive on a relative basis to competing goods made in economies with weak currencies (like the United States). Price conscious consumers begin making other purchasing decisions; instead choosing to buy Chevrolet or Volkswagen, because Honda just isn’t as affordable.
The alternative for Japanese companies is to absorb the hit of the strengthening currency; which can mean that Japanese stock prices would be affected. We’ve seen an element of this too, as evidenced by the JPN 225 CFD (mirroring the Nikkei index).
 Created with Marketscope/Trading Station
The consequences of such a movement can be enormous, and the Bank of Japan has made numerous attempts to intervene in markets to weaken the Yen.
While the efforts would generally offer a bout of short-term relief, the strength in Yen eventually came back to continue to drive the currency to all time highs against the US Dollar (this would be lows on the USDJPY currency pair as Yen is the counter currency in the pair).
When the Tohuku Earthquake and Tsunami ravaged the country of Japan, worried investors repatriated Yen at a breath-taking rate.
One might imagine that an event as severe as the events that transpired would equate to weakness in a currency?
In Japan, where rates were left extremely low for an extended period of time, Japanese investors became accustomed to investing in foreign markets to receive a better rate of return. After capital had flowed out of the economy for so long, such an event equates to the concept of ‘Yen Repatriation.’ This is when investors bring their Yen back into Japan out of fear. As those investors buy back Yen, this serves to push the price higher.
In the case of the Tohuku Earthquake and Tsunami, with the Fukushima disaster following shortly thereafter; we saw an extreme case of Yen repatriation, pushing the Yen to a new all-time high against the US Dollar.
 Created with Marketscope/Trading Station
At this trying hour for the nation of Japan, the G-7 nations stepped in an unprecedented manner to intervene in the currency; weakening the Yen over 500 pips against the US Dollar.
Unfortunately this only offered short-term relief, as investors eventually bid the Yen higher over the course of the next 4 months; once again, establishing a new all-time high against the US Dollar.
But something strange happened during the month of February. The Yen began weakening, and hasn’t yet stopped. This is much different than the previous bouts of Yen weakness seen in markets. This time we’ve seen resistance levels getting taken out as the currency continues to weaken.
Is it really different this time?
While it is still too early to say that this most recent bout of Yen weakness will initiate any longer-term trends, there are elements of change that could serve as optimism for the people of Japan.
Much of this change seems to be spurned by the inauguration of a new Prime Minister: Yoshihiko Noda, who was previously the Finance Minister of the Bank of Japan.
After taking over after the resignation of previous Prime Minister Naoto Kan (who had also functioned as Finance Minister of the Bank of Japan previous to his administration), Noda made one of his first items of business to announce the inclusion of Japan to the Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership. Through the partnership, member countries would enjoy free trade relationships with a host of other nations. Although Japan has not formally entered negotiations to the partnership this has served to be a controversial topic in Japan.
Noda also ushered Japan to a new form of currency intervention. In November, the Japan Bank for International Cooperation began a program of offering cheap US Dollar based loans to Japanese companies to make foreign acquisitions of companies or resources.
The program was introduced in August of 2011 as the ‘Emergency Facility to Deal with The Strong Yen,’ and offers to finance a portion of deals for Japanese firms purchasing assets outside of the country. This has led to a Merger and Acquisition boom for Japanese companies. And due to the fact that the JBIC is only financing a portion of these deals (60% financed for Japanese firms to buy foreign companies, 70% for Japanese firms to buy foreign resources), this has helped motivate capital outflows from the country; further weakening the Yen.
Upon boosting the Asset Purchase program in Japan yet again on February 14th, Yen weakness appeared to accelerate.
Where does the Yen go from here?
The answer to this question is likely contingent on an even bigger question of global economic growth.
If the global economy continues to improve, this could allow for additional weakness in the Yen, much like what was seen in markets throughout 2005 to the 3rd quarter of 2007, in which we saw the USDJPY currency pair move from the psychological support level of 100.00 up to 120.00; a loss of 20% for the currency.
However, if the European debt situation rears its head again, or if Chinese economic data continues to show signs of slow-down in the economy, we can easily see a re-emergence of Yen strength, with tests of all-time highs (lows in the USDJPY currency pair).

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: A fall in crude allows emerging markets to gain leading to broad dollar weakness; SP cuts Greece - markets not concerned



- (JP) JAPAN JAN RETAIL TRADE M/M: 4.1% V 1.0%E; Y/Y: +1.9% V -0.1%E; LARGE RETAILERS' SALES: -1.0% V -1.1%E
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN CURRENT ACCOUNT: -$772M V +$2.80B PRIOR (2-year low); GOODS BALANCE: -$1.4B V $2.7B PRIOR
- (PH) PHILIPPINES DEC TRADE BALANCE: -$1.2B V -$1.64B PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN FEB SMALL BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 45.3 V 45.7 PRIOR
- (CO) Colombia Dec Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.4% v 5.5%e
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.1%
- S&P/ASX -0.1%
- Kospi +0.6%
- Taiwan Taiex closed
- Singapore Straits Times +0.2%
- Shanghai Composite -0.4%
- Hang Seng +0.8%
- S&P Futures +0.2% at 1,369
- April gold -0.2% at $1,771/oz
- April Crude -0.4% at $108.17
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- A small decline in crude gave a relief rally to most markets across the region. Yesterday's heavy hit South Korea tested above the 2,005 level and emerging market currencies gained. Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco said that overseas easing is complicating policy and capital inflows are turning emerging markets into portfolio managers. The PHP for its part gained over 0.7% to PHP42.81 to the USD. He also said that inflation should be manageable as long as there were no major shocks from oil prices. Japan Fin Min Azumi said that right now Japan is working on passing the next FY budget and was not considering a stopgap. Japan would only start looking to a hold over budget if an agreement cannot be reached by mid-March. S&P cut Greece's sovereign rating to selective default from CC, saying that if the debt swap was successful it would raise the rating to CCC. This initially led to some euro weakness, later on EUR/USD gained 0.3% today testing $1.3444 ahead of the second round of LTRO scheduled for the 29th. Yen gained against for the Greenback and the Euro, most major Japanese exports paused in their gains with the renewed strength in the yen. A$ had a positive session, though failed to break above $1.0790 level. South Korea's DRAM chip makers Samsung and Hynix both rallied on the news of Elpida's bankruptcy, though neither has indicated any interest in its assets. China PBoC offered CNY10B in 28-day repos at 2.80% (unchanged) though failed to sell any bills.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) China State researcher Zhang: Sees 2012 exports +15% y/y; GDP will be slow in H1 and picking up into H2 - Chinese press
- (MX) Mexico Deputy Fin Min: Not concerned about recent peso bond market developments
- (US) Fed's Duke: FOMC's focus on housing is important and key in monetary policy; Housing has been slow in response to low interest rates
- (KS) South Korea Financial Services Commission official Kim: To carefully monitor foreign investor capital flow
***Equities***
- VAH.AU: Raises domestic surcharges by A$1.50-6.00, effective from July 1st
- BBG.AU: Ends talks with TPG after revised offer of A$3.30/shr (A$3.00 prior) is deemed too low
- Tepco, 9501.JP: Will start to pay out compensation in March to residents who voluntarily evacuated their homes due to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant - Nikkei
- Elpida, 6665.JP: Bond default to reach ¥138.5B as part of bankruptcy protection; Micron seen as the prime candidate to sponsor Elpida rebuild - Nikkei News
- GFF.AU: Confirms that Singapore's Wilmar International acquired 10.1% stake for A$115M after the close yesterday; May raise stake further - financial press
- TLS.AU: ACCC accepts changes to structural seperation proposal, opening the way for the NBN deal to go ahead - financial press
***US Equities***
- CVI: Reports Q4 $0.34 v $0.38e, R$1.06B v $1.0Be; -2.2% after hours
- KOF: Reports Q4 Op profit MXN6.5B v MXN5.1B y/y, Rev MXN36.2B v MXN28.0B y/y; +0.5% after hours
- UHS: Reports Q4 $0.91 v $0.90e, R$1.84B v $1.9Be; +1.1% after hours
- URS: Reports Q4 $0.89 (adj) v $0.98e, R$2.37B v $2.5Be; initiates dividend of $0.20; -0.5% after hours
- FB: Yahoo claiming that Facebook is infringing on 10-20 of its patents covering social networking, advertising and personalization - FT
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (JP) Japan Iron and Steel Federation Chairman Eiji: Even though the yen has weakened to the ¥80 level it is still difficult for Japan steelmakers - Nikkei
- JGB: (JP) Japan MoF sells ¥2.50T in 0.1% (0.1% prior) 2-yr JGBs, bid to cover: 5.15x v 5.35x prior
- OLAM.SG: Exec: Sees a sugar surplus of 9M tons for 2011/12 and expects another surplus in 2012/13
- (CN) China Iron and Steel Association (CISA): Dependence on foreign iron ore has fallen; Iron ore prices likely to fall in the near term
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 9,692 tons from 9,632 tons (highest since 9,700 on Feb 10th) - update as of Feb 24th