19 July 2012 15: 55 GMT 
although the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) 0.17% remains
lower open, we may look at the rebound of 10.036 speed gain, in the next
24-hours trading as the 30-minute relative strength oversold index territory
back jumps. In fact that whole series of gloomy developments from the world's
largest economy seems will weigh on market sentiment, and see we perhaps
currency traders continue to their risk-taking back when headlines from Europe
fears fuel for scale infection. The EU is fighting to curb the increase in
borrowing costs in Spain, the continued turmoil in the eurozone can continue to
SAP investor confidence and perhaps we provide a flight to safety in the days
when the group maintains a reactionary approach in dealing with the debt crisis
emerge. 
Are
planned as euro-zone finance ministers, Spain EUR bailout discuss 100B today
Germany is likely to vote in favor of the extraordinary action and movement can
support risk-taking behavior, as it reduces the ongoing turmoil in the financial
system. The development can however fail to encourage a meaningful rally in
risk, as the new initiative does little to the cause of the debt crisis, and we
should see that the European Central Bank will continue to go on its easing
cycle than the Governments under the fixed exchange rate more and more on
financial support instructs you. Although the USDOLLAR not up keep up trending
channel within the wider trend, we will remain optimistic for our forecast, as
long as it keeps the June low (10.025) above. The relative strength index, the
upward trend of this year claiming that we should how a rebound get to the end
of the week, and we are looking for dips in the greenback to buy, as risk
sentiment pointed running seems to be way.
Three
of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.57 per cent
rally in the Australian dollar, but the bull market dynamics in the AUDUSD might
be an end approaches, while the relative strength index overbought territory
approaches. The fundamental Outlook for the economy of Australia is generally
expected $1T continue to throw a bearish Outlook for the Aussie dollar, such as
the Reserve Bank to deliver further interest rate cuts in the coming months and
the Central Bank a leader to hit continue to sound for the monetary policy
should, as the slowdown in China - Australia's largest trading partner - puts a
damper on the prospects for economic growth. In turn, we seek the short-term
rally in the AUDUSD fade, and we would have to keep see the pair below the high
April (1.0473), to maintain our bearish forecast.
although the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) 0.17% remains
lower open, we may look at the rebound of 10.036 speed gain, in the next
24-hours trading as the 30-minute relative strength oversold index territory
back jumps. In fact that whole series of gloomy developments from the world's
largest economy seems will weigh on market sentiment, and see we perhaps
currency traders continue to their risk-taking back when headlines from Europe
fears fuel for scale infection. The EU is fighting to curb the increase in
borrowing costs in Spain, the continued turmoil in the eurozone can continue to
SAP investor confidence and perhaps we provide a flight to safety in the days
when the group maintains a reactionary approach in dealing with the debt crisis
emerge. Are
planned as euro-zone finance ministers, Spain EUR bailout discuss 100B today
Germany is likely to vote in favor of the extraordinary action and movement can
support risk-taking behavior, as it reduces the ongoing turmoil in the financial
system. The development can however fail to encourage a meaningful rally in
risk, as the new initiative does little to the cause of the debt crisis, and we
should see that the European Central Bank will continue to go on its easing
cycle than the Governments under the fixed exchange rate more and more on
financial support instructs you. Although the USDOLLAR not up keep up trending
channel within the wider trend, we will remain optimistic for our forecast, as
long as it keeps the June low (10.025) above. The relative strength index, the
upward trend of this year claiming that we should how a rebound get to the end
of the week, and we are looking for dips in the greenback to buy, as risk
sentiment pointed running seems to be way.
Three
of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.57 per cent
rally in the Australian dollar, but the bull market dynamics in the AUDUSD might
be an end approaches, while the relative strength index overbought territory
approaches. The fundamental Outlook for the economy of Australia is generally
expected $1T continue to throw a bearish Outlook for the Aussie dollar, such as
the Reserve Bank to deliver further interest rate cuts in the coming months and
the Central Bank a leader to hit continue to sound for the monetary policy
should, as the slowdown in China - Australia's largest trading partner - puts a
damper on the prospects for economic growth. In turn, we seek the short-term
rally in the AUDUSD fade, and we would have to keep see the pair below the high
April (1.0473), to maintain our bearish forecast.
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD: the market is in train to correct certain levels severely oversold after breakdown of yearly lows little less 1.2300. While our global perspective is clearly downward, by we see still place upside in the short term before a high low is wanted. Look for the positive in the last week has close to open the door for an acceleration in the region of 1 2800 - 1 3000, where new offers are likely to re-emerge. Setbacks must be well supported ahead of 1.2400.
USD/JPY: the recent setbacks have been quite intense, the market collapse by the ADM, 200 days before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we support that the market should continue to break higher, with views finally fixed on a retest and rupture of 2012 senior by UST up more. However, at this stage, we need to see a break and close above 80.00 back to alleviate the pressures weighing officially and to reaffirm the optimistic prospects.
GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI appear inclined upside down to allow a corrective bounce short term necessary after the setback down just shy of the 2012 bottom of January. Locate the last close back daily over 1.5440 to strengthen the prospects for growth in the short term, provided in the 1.5800 region where a low high costs will be sought for that underpin the acceleration of bear trend to resume. Only a close back under delays 1.5400.
USD/CHF: while we retain a broader upward perspective for this pair, with the market seen to establish above parity in the weeks to come, short-term risks are a corrective withdrawal to allow the market to establish a fresh plu bass. Thus, we see risks of weakness in the next sessions to the 9200 0 - 0 9300 area before the market seeks to reaffirm its upward momentum and broader uptrend.
The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.59 percent lower on the day after moving 124 percent of its average true range, and the greenback may track lower over the remainder of the week as it carves out a short-term top coming into June. As we expect former trendline support to act as new resistance, the index appears to be carving out a downward trend, and the recent weakness in the dollar may gather pace over the coming days as the European Central Bank looks to increase its effort in addressing the debt crisis. At the same time, the Fed’s Beige Book may boost risk-taking behavior should the survey fuel speculation for another round of quantitative easing, but we may see the report prop up the dollar should the central bank continue to take note of the more robust recovery.
Indeed, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart floated the idea of extending ‘Operation Twist’ as opposed to expanding the balance sheet further, and it seems as though the central bank is looking at other options besides QE3 as the debt crisis continues to pose a risk to the global financial system. Beyond the external risks surrounding the world’s largest economy, the ongoing improvement in private sector activity continues to limit the Fed’s scope to further pump liquidity into the system, and we should see the FOMC continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. Nevertheless, it seems as though we’re finally seeing a correction in the USDOLLAR as the relative strength index continues to come off of overbought territory, and will be watching the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,949 for key support as it maintains the upward trending channel from earlier this year. 
Three of the four components advanced against the dollar, led by a 1.69 percent rally in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency may continue to retrace the selloff from the previous month as currency traders increase their appetite for risk. Indeed, the above-forecast 1Q GDP print has helped to prop up the AUDUSD, but the rebound in the exchange rate is likely to be short-lived as market participants see the Reserve Bank of Australia taking additional steps to stimulate a stronger recovery. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are still looking for another 100bp worth of rate cuts over the next 12-months, and we will main a bearish outlook for the aussie-dollar as the continues to carry out its easing cycle.
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT 
The greenback weakened across the board on Monday, led by a 0.85 percent advance in the Australian dollar, while the Japanese Yen climbed 0.29 as the Bank of Japan talked down speculation for additional asset purchases. Indeed, the policy meeting minutes reiterated that the BoJ is not monetize government debt as market participants look for more easing, and it seems as though the central bank will carry its current policy into the second-half of the year even as Governor Masaaki Shirakawa pledges to pursue ‘powerful’ monetary easing. As the USDJPY threatens the downward trend carried over from March, we are looking for a close above the 20-Day SMA (79.75) to see a meaningful rebound in the exchange rate, and we will be closely watching the 79.00 figure as it appears to be holding up as support.
strategy: long wait
Written by Ilya Spivak, strategist of Dailyfx.com currency
