Japanese Yen Rallies After Bevy of Disappointing US Data

Japanese Yen Rallies After Bevy of Disappointing US Data
THE food: USD existing home sales (JUN) > 4,37 M (5.4%) compared to 4.62 M (+ 1.5%) expected from 4.62 M (0.0%) > USD leading indicators (JUN) > 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected by + 0.4% > USD Philadelphia Fed index (JUL) > 12.9 to 8.0 expected from 16.6 > EURUSD BEARISH
The news always worse for the U.S. economy, since a few months ago was world economy the favourite and is now only a further decay in the photo, the global growth. Three 'medium' importance (after the DailyFX economic calendar) data releases for the US economy have been released, disappointed by 10: 00 am EDT / 14: 00 GMT, and all three. Namely:
Existing home sales for June fell to an annual rate of 4,37 m from 4.62M, well-below 4.62 M pace expected. Sales fell by 5.4% over month while a gain of 1.5% was planned. Leading indicators for June shrank by 0.3%, faster than the 0.1% forecast fall in. The July Philadelphia Fed index improved, but remained the stretched compared to 8.0 expected negative to 12.9. The data come measures to improve the growth prospects at a crucial time, as the Federal weighs reserve more stimuli, but remain questions about what exactly is going to happen. Each Chairman Ben Bernanke was as made clear over the last two days half-yearly report on monetary policy to Congress, while the Federal can do more reserve, if necessary, the necessary structural improvements in the economy will come only through a prudent fiscal policy. To the United States ' said that fiscal policy is corrected, the US economy will continue to fight, no matter what does the Federal Reserve. USD/JPY 1 minute chart: 19 July 2012
Charts created using MarketScope prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the bevy of disappointing versions of the US dollar initially strengthened, the AUDUSD send lower from 1.0422 to as low as 1.0401, before recovering to 1.0417, which was written at the time of this report. The EURUSD behaved as well as diving from 1.2244 to 1.2230.
The big winner was the Japanese yen, as investors shed the US dollar as the play favorite safe haven: the AUDJPY fell from 81.97 to as low as 81.73; the EURJPY dropped from 96,27 to as low as 96.13; and the USDJPY fell to 78.52 of 78,64, before recovering to 78.57, at the time of this report was written.

Spanish debt sale Miss weighs on euro trading

Spanish debt sale Miss weighs on euro trading
Traders were European meeting disappointed, a Spanish debt sale, which brought higher yields and missed a 3 billion maximum target by 20 million euro. Spanish 2014 bonds were sold to 5,204% yield, compared to 4.335% in June, and 5-year notes were 6.46% in today's sale until sold by 6.07% sale on June 21.
Show higher than expected Spanish borrowing costs a dropping confidence in the ailing economy. The German House will most likely approve the EFSF-100 billion euro aid package after Spain; But German Finance Minister Schäuble legislators said that the Spanish Government for the bailout loans were responsible. The Minister further said that the direct bank recapitalisation can be done only under a condition of the sovereign responsibility. This means that the Spanish government debt will likely increase with the upcoming stimulus package, thereby further confidence in Spanish debt lower.
Meanwhile notes to 0.86% yield, down from 1.43% in the last auction, were French 2017 as investors flock to the relatively safer French economy sold. The European session opened with shares up over 1%, vice versa this sent the euro twenty points behind short-term support of 1.2300, but the gains quickly temporary as EURUSD and European shares were most of these profits. Following the news of the Spanish debt sale closer to 1.2250, slightly above the 50% expansion from may up to June low fallen euro.
In other European news UK retail sales (without a car fuel) increased by 0.3% in June, though still disappointing expectations for a rise of 0.4%. Swiss exports were also to 2.6% in June. Many data fed comes including sales existing for June, leading indicators and the Philadelphia today from the United States. for July. Traders should watch for the results of the German House of Commons vote on the Spanish aid package.
EURUSD15 minute: 19 July 2012

US Dollar Classic Technical Report 07.19.2012

19 July 2012 12:42 GMT Prices took out support at the bottom of what appears to be a Flag formation set from the June 20 low, hinting at downward continuation from here. Sellers are now testing through interim support at 10070, with a break of that exposing the 10010-32 area marked by the early April top and the 61.8% retracement. If fully realized, the Flag setup implies a measured target at 9935. The formation’s lower boundary, now at 10089, has been recast as near-term resistance.
Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index - Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

USD index lower tip on RBA policy poised for correction, AUD to mark

19 July 2012 15: 55 GMT although the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) 0.17% remains lower open, we may look at the rebound of 10.036 speed gain, in the next 24-hours trading as the 30-minute relative strength oversold index territory back jumps. In fact that whole series of gloomy developments from the world's largest economy seems will weigh on market sentiment, and see we perhaps currency traders continue to their risk-taking back when headlines from Europe fears fuel for scale infection. The EU is fighting to curb the increase in borrowing costs in Spain, the continued turmoil in the eurozone can continue to SAP investor confidence and perhaps we provide a flight to safety in the days when the group maintains a reactionary approach in dealing with the debt crisis emerge. Are planned as euro-zone finance ministers, Spain EUR bailout discuss 100B today Germany is likely to vote in favor of the extraordinary action and movement can support risk-taking behavior, as it reduces the ongoing turmoil in the financial system. The development can however fail to encourage a meaningful rally in risk, as the new initiative does little to the cause of the debt crisis, and we should see that the European Central Bank will continue to go on its easing cycle than the Governments under the fixed exchange rate more and more on financial support instructs you. Although the USDOLLAR not up keep up trending channel within the wider trend, we will remain optimistic for our forecast, as long as it keeps the June low (10.025) above. The relative strength index, the upward trend of this year claiming that we should how a rebound get to the end of the week, and we are looking for dips in the greenback to buy, as risk sentiment pointed running seems to be way.
Three of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.57 per cent rally in the Australian dollar, but the bull market dynamics in the AUDUSD might be an end approaches, while the relative strength index overbought territory approaches. The fundamental Outlook for the economy of Australia is generally expected $1T continue to throw a bearish Outlook for the Aussie dollar, such as the Reserve Bank to deliver further interest rate cuts in the coming months and the Central Bank a leader to hit continue to sound for the monetary policy should, as the slowdown in China - Australia's largest trading partner - puts a damper on the prospects for economic growth. In turn, we seek the short-term rally in the AUDUSD fade, and we would have to keep see the pair below the high April (1.0473), to maintain our bearish forecast.

USDCAD classic technical report 07.19.2012

Prices are approaching support on a falling trend line that has the other side since the beginning of June a barrier reinforced relating to 1.0047-50, characterised by a former resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement denied. A lower break exposes the 0.9953 76 region first. Short-term resistance lines in the 1.0115-23 with a break of the targeting trend right resistance now at 1.0197.


Chart - with FXCM MarketScope 2.0 created 8 hr

The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report

The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report
Analyst 14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT 

undamentale Prognose für Gold: Baisse
Der kanadische Dollar gewann an Boden gegen Gegenstück U.S. inmitten den Rebound in Gefahr Gefühl kann, doch die Loonie zu behaupten die Bank of Canada einen vorsichtigen Ausblick für die Region Streik sollte nächste Woche. Das BoC Zinssatz Entscheidung das größte Ereignisrisiko für die folgende Woche zeigt, wie Gouverneur Mark Carney sich Spekulationen für höhere Fremdkapitalkosten spricht, aber Marktteilnehmer weiter können, zurück zu skalieren Wetten für eine Zinsanhebung die Staatsschulden-Krise weiterhin eine Bedrohung für die Region darstellen.
Tatsächlich Gouverneur Carney machte zahlreiche Versuche, auf den Datensatz Anstieg der Haushaltsverschuldung zu sprechen, und vielleicht sehen wir die Zentralbank Kopf weiterhin die Idee für eine mögliche Zinserhöhung inmitten Ängste vor einer Immobilienblase zu schweben. Obwohl wir Lichtblicke in der kanadischen Wirtschaft sehen, beschränkten die BoC Gesichter Bereich um das Normalisieren Geldpolitik inmitten der anhaltenden Turbulenzen in Europa. Dadurch können wir die Zentralbank seine warten-and-See-Ansatz in 2013 tragen sehen. In einer Umfrage von Bloomberg News Übernachtung alle der 22 Ökonomen Befragten Prognose BoC Zinssatz 1,00 % halten, während den Marktteilnehmern die Zentralbank Festhalten an seiner warten-and-See-Ansatz über die nächsten 12 Monate laut Credit Suisse finden Sie unter Index Swaps.
Zur gleichen Zeit werden wir genau verfolgt werden den vierteljährlichen geldpolitischen Bericht due out am 18. Juli wie die Zentralbank ihre aktualisierten Prognose für Wachstum und Inflation sowie den Bericht mein Highlight eine geschwächte Outlook für die Region präsentieren wird wie die USA – Kanadas größter Handelspartner – eine Verlangsamung Erholung steht. Wiederum die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik kann dämpfen die Beschwerde mit dem kanadischen Dollar, aber der Verbraucherpreis-Bericht vom Fass für Freitag erneuere Spekulation für höhere Kreditkosten wie die Kern-Rate der Inflation erwartet wird, um im schnellsten Tempo für 2012 zu erweitern. Als die USDCAD weiterhin über die 78.6 % Fibonacci-Retracement aus der 2007 halten, niedrig, die 2009 um hohe 1.0100-10, wir sehen weiterhin, dass das Paar eine kurzfristige Basis um die Kennzahl aufbauen und die technische Perspektiven flößt eine Hausse Voreingenommenheit für die Dollar-Loonie als der relative Stärke Index Pausen heraus von den Abwärtstrend. Wiederum eine ganze Reihe von Leitzinssenkung Kommentare von BoC einen anderen laufen bei 1.0400 auslösen kann, und frische 2012 Höhen des Wechselkurses können wir sehen, wie er sich ein höheres tief im Juli schnitzt. -DS
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14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT

$ Dollar falls into weekend – character of What’s come Monday?

$ Dollar falls into weekend – character of What’s come Monday?
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Having worked so hard to finally overtake resistance that had capped bullish ambitions for an entire month, you’d think the dollar would have won some respite from the sentiment-based headwinds. That said, Friday ended with a sizable decline for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) back below that closely-watched 10,190 level. Once again, we are reminded of the critical difference between a breakout and break with follow through. The immediate reversal from the greenback is perhaps a little more surprising given the initial move was supported by a general slide in risk trends. That said, when we are confronted with technical boundaries like the midpoint of the EURUSD’s historical range and the fact that there are few fundamental catalysts to actively drive capital towards safe havens that provide no (or even negative) yield, the lack of follow through becomes a little more comprehensible. Can we jump start a trend for the dollar – whether bullish or bearish?
If you were looking for fundamental cues from the fundamental event risk from the final 24 hours of this past week as guidance for where we will go heading forward, you may be disappointed. The Chinese 2Q GDP figures (setting the tone for global growth expectations amongst investors) printed below expected with a 7.6 percent annual pace of expansion – the weakest pace in three years but not enough of a surprise to stir concern. Closer to home, JPMorgan started the ball rolling for the US earnings season with a view into the closely-monitored financial market. A massive $4.4 billion loss via the CIO debacle didn’t seem to materially hamper adjusted earnings. As dubious as corporate earnings are (as a gauge for capital gains and yields for the equities market – the favored investment of retail trader), we cannot ignore it if the market is placated by the figures. The earnings season continues next week with Bank of American, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Apple and Google amongst other notables. Watch it with a mind to how the masses read the numbers. Though it is difficult to see any, individual fundamental event as a potential catalyst to truly drive risk appetite forward; Fed Chairman Bernanke’s monetary policy report will always carry the possibility of an announcement of intentions for further stimulus. To what degree markets are still holding out hope (and thereby possibly be disappointed) remains to be seen.
Euro Faces Another Round of Disappointment, May Still Rebound
The euro has dropped sharply over the past two weeks, so a correction is not difficult to wrestle from overexposed bears. From a medium-to-long term fundamental perspective, uncertainty and lack of a solid safety net for another wave of Euro panic leaves the currency and region exposed. Yet, we have seen far too many instances were underwhelming or incomplete efforts have bought the euro time - whether through an easily soothed Euro market or simply an improvement in underlying sentiment is debatable. The media and analysts punched holes in the EU Summit’s vows almost immediately after they were issued, but that baton seems to have been dropped. In the upcoming week, we will nevertheless be reminded of the situation. On Wednesday, the EU will release a report on the public finances of the Euro Zone; but the bigger headline will be Friday’s Finance Ministers meeting, where they are supposed to finally agree on Spain’s rescue terms and potentially touch on Greece and the bigger terms of using the ESM to participate in the ongoing stability effort. Though it doesn’t draw much immediate market reaction, it is also worthwhile to keep an eye on important bond auctions. Spain, Greece and Portugal are all on deck to sell debt; and the rates that they draw (more than the aggregate demand, which can be national banks) reminds us of the market’s expectations.
British Pound Receives a Significant Boost from BoE Lending Details
Though it was somewhat lost in the general advance for most risk-based currencies, the sterling managed to rally against everyone of its major counterparts – safe havens, high yield carry currencies and euro alike. Clearly there was an additional fundamental factor, and that came from the Bank of England. The policy authority issued details on its lending program whereby banks can borrow T-Bills to use as collateral for loans. The program could boost credit as much as 80 billion sterling. Next week, keep an eye on the BoE minutes and jobs figures.
Australian Dollar Looks to Sentiment as its Yield Continues its Drop
Wherever risk trends head, the Australian dollar will inevitably follow (the AUDUSD’s 20-day rolling correlation to the S&P 500 is currently 0.89 percent). That said, there will be a question as to whether the Aussie shows greater sensitive to a rise or a fall in sentiment. The RBA has already delivered a string of cuts against heavy projects of easing. There would imply that there is some relief available from over-extended dovish forecasts, but the 12 month rate forecast is actually heading lower again (now calling for more than 100 bps of cuts again). Furthermore, the benchmark 10-year Australian government bond yield is at 5-week lows – very near the record low set in early June.
Canadian Dollar: BoC Rate Decision on Tap, Reminder of Loonie’s Unique Position
It seems that whenever there is a lull in serious calendar event risk, that the Canadian dollar steps in to fill the void with its own offerings. That will be the case in the coming week. On deck we have a few important readings. The Bank of Canada’s rate decision carries the most flash. Though they won’t alter policy, they will likely retain their neutral to hawkish lean that draws such a stark contrast to global counterparts (especially recently). The Monetary Policy report will follow shortly after along with an expected rebound in inflation pressures on Friday.
Swiss Franc: Bond Yields Plunge into Negative Territory, Will Investors Waver?
The yields on the short-end of the Swiss yield curve were already in negative territory, but the pressure significantly increased this past Friday. The 2-year note’s rate closed at -0.402 percent - a record low. Swiss authorities have repeatedly threatened negative interest rates as a further deterrent against an appreciating franc, but this is clearly not an option. That leaves a floor raise or capital curbs if they have to act.
Gold Rallies Against Euro, High Yield Currencies on Risk-Positive Session
A tumble for the US dollar is good enough reason for gold to find some traction, but to see the precious metal rally against higher yielding currencies is something else. For a risk-positive day, we would expect capital to move away from alternative stores of wealth and into something with higher (any) yield. Such a situation can often times be a sign that risk trends are flimsy and likely to fall apart.
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ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
Indicator of confidence in China’s economy
NZD Performance Services Index
CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)
Last month was the first retracement in a 3 month decline.
CHF Industrial Production (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)
Many EU countries have already reports a decrease in inflationary pressure during June.
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros)
Germany’s trade balanced declined during May.
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros)
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar)
June Vehicle sales beat expectation.
May Wholesale inventory growth rate slowed down.
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
IMF to Release Updated Growth Forecasts
Q2 Earnings – Morgan Stanley and Citigroup
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
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CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
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