Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Sunday, July 29, 2012
Euro bullish weekly reversal outside warrants action
US equity indexes continue to chop up participants (see explanation from 2 weeks ago on the purpose this serves) as the SPY is at its highest since 5/3. In fact, the S&P 500 (SPY ETF shown) has closed the gap at 138.99 (not shown on this chart which was taken earlier). However, the Russell 2000 (IWM ETF) is well below its July high and closing in on its short term trendline. In other words, the broad index of small cap stocks is not confirming the new high in the narrow index of the 500 largest companies.
US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
I’m still following the 1995/96 USD model. IF the current market follows the 1995/96 model then expect weakness into mid-August below 8139. 8082 is former resistance and now potential support. Allow for strength early next week above 8307. The 1995/96 market endured a deep retracement (in late July and early August of 1996) that nearly touched the previous swing low (February 1996 low). If that happens this time around, then weakness would extend below 80 but a bottom would form before the February low of 7899.
US Dollar Index (ICE) Continuous Contract Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
“The relationship between the US Dollar Index in 1995-1996 and now was pointed out to me by ElliottWave-Forecast. The charts tell the story and it’s uncanny. Not only do the patterns show remarkable similarity in form, but also in time and amplitude. The first number denotes the number of days that the specific leg consumed. The second number in parentheses denotes the number of days since the start of the pattern. The numbers with decimal points are percentage and measure the change from low to high of each leg in the pattern with the number after the slash measuring the net change from the start of the pattern. If the pattern continues (and there is no guarantee that it will of course), then the USD would trade sideways to down throughout July and August before bottoming just above the March low. This should be interesting to follow.”
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) has traded to its lowest since 5/11 and the index may slip lower still next week. Focus is a short term internal downward sloping channel and 100% extension of the decline from the July high at 9986. The trendline that extends off of the 2012 lows is at about 9970 next week. A deeper decline into mid-August (as per the 199/96 model) could reach the 100% extension of the decline from the June high at 9940. Allow for corrective strength above 10060 but look lower over the coming weeks.
Euro / US Dollar
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie –The anticipated reversal has materialized in the EURUSD and we can now focus on how far the rally is likely to extend. Elliott wave guidelines state that wave 4 often alternates with wave 2 of the same degree with respect to character. In other words, if wave 2 is sharp and simple then expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Wave 2 (13003-13384) was sharp (retracing 78.6% of wave 1) and simple (3 wave zigzag) thus we should expect wave 4 to be shallow and complex. Shallow means a 38.2% retracement of wave 3, which comes in at 12554. The former 4th wave of one less degree is also of interest at 12746. The bullish wave count (for at least a few weeks) is bolstered by this week’s key AND outside reversal. This is the first such reversal since the second week of 2011. Near term, I favor buying on a dip early next week between 12175 and 12215.
British Pound / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie –15900 remains a level of interest. To review, “15900 is the 100% extension of the rally from 15267 and 61.8% retracement of the decline from 16300.” After Thursday’s surge, a tag of 15900 may be in the cards earlier than thought. The level intersects channel resistance on Tuesday. An aggressive target of 16105, the 161.8% extension of the rally from 15392 (beginning of wave c?), must also be considered in light of the EURUSD bullish implications. 15550 and 15610 are supports.
Australian Dollar / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – The swings since the 2011 high compose a triangle. The NZDUSD pattern makes it more likely though that the triangle is not bullish but rather forming from the October 2011 low as wave B within an A-B-C decline from the 2011 high. Without getting into the nitty-gritty of wave structure within the advance from the 6/1 low, levels to consider for a top are 10475 (4/27 high), the line that extends off of the 7/5 and 7/19 highs and 10600 (extensions and 2/23 low). The 10600+ idea makes the most sense given the 1995/1996 USD model and EURUSD wave count. Support is 10345/85.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – Quite simply, the 3 wave rally from 7765 leaves 7765 vulnerable. The decline from 8061 appears to be unfolding in an impulsive manner (wave 3 extended). As such, strength should prove corrective and give way to new lows. Resistance is clustered between 7868/80 (former pivots and 38.2% retracement). The bottom of this zone was reached today so it’s time to start looking lower again. Bigger picture, notice that the rally from the 2011 low is also in 3 waves. The implications are for an eventual drop to another all-time low (3 wave moves can also start larger corrections such as triangles, flats, and complex patterns however).
Gold (spot)
Daily Bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie – Gold has cleanly broken through its triangle pattern. I had pegged the action in recent months as a bearish triangle but was proven wrong today with the move above the resistance line and 7/3 high. One must respect the bullish break and respect potential for a move back towards (not necessarily above) the 2012 high of 1790.55. The February low is of interest just above 1700.
Gold breakout in question ahead of the FOMC, NFP
fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral
Gold is this week with the precious support 2.23% end of trading on Friday significantly stronger at the close of trading. Gold has continued to risk a substantial three-day rally violation of important trend line resistance from 6 June before you fresh monthly record $1630 to follow. Although the advance exposes now key targets over the $1670, we remain next week with a flurry of interest rate decisions and the U.S. non-farm payroll pay barrel risk carefully before the big event. The FOMC interest rate decision and key are the employment data centre for gold traders next week investors weigh prospects for future monetary policy. Although it has proposed, the Fed can look, to a further bout of quantitative easing next week announce it is our view that the Central Bank is unlikely that such a measure at these levels, non-farm payroll print especially before Friday's to implement. It is important to note, that diminish the idea are measures, as every time here to lax-the fed-such measures, the wider effect there staged less effective. As such is with growth and inflation data more or less in line with consensus estimates, hard to justify further easing in the current environment. It is more likely that we will see, that the Central Bank to soft scale back its Outlook for monetary policy next leader and we should see the Committee for the remainder of the year pat are. Relevant data starts on Tuesday with June expected to further improve on the part of consumers personal income and expenditure metrics and ends on Friday with the eagerly-awaited pay non-agricultural wage. Consensus estimates call for the addition of 100 K jobs for the month of July, up from a previous run of only 80 K with the unemployment rate, which is expected to hold steady at 8.2%. Search the data in dramatically below expectations for gold market as a participant's view should benefit come to diversify from the US dollar.
From a technical perspective, gold, breaking out of near three month-long triangle passed a milestone this week with prices education before closing the week at $1620. The outbreak is a bullish note on the yellow metal as a daily sees RSI to breach the 70-mark for the first time since March with topside intermediate now supports eyes on the June high of $1640 by the resistance on the all time highs made in September (currently around $1673) goes back 200-day moving average at $1656 and trendline. Provisional support is former triangle resistance and now support the $1600-level. This interpretation would be only a break below not valid per low at $1563. This means that we next week with the FOMC interest rate decisions, ECB, BoE, and the NFP are expected to draw prices in the near future risk remain neutral on gold prices before key event. -MB
Japanese Yen reversal shape in the middle of divergence in policy Outlook on
Grundsätzliche Prognose für japanische Yen: Baisse
Der japanische Yen gegenüber dem U.S.-Gegenstück inmitten der stärker als erwartete BIP Bericht aus der weltweit größten Volkswirtschaft geschwächt, und die USDJPY kann weiterhin den Ausverkauf von Anfang dieses Monats nachvollziehen, wie die Federal Reserve Weg von seiner Lockerung Zyklus bewegt. Obwohl das FOMC allgemein erwartet, beizubehalten, daß ihre aktuelle Politik im August, die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik sein könnte, sollten die Spiel-Wechsler für die Dollar-Yen weiter der Ausschuss sich Spekulationen für eine neue Runde der quantitativen Lockerung zu sprechen.
Wie der Vorbericht 2Q BIP für die USA, die Aussichten für Wachstum und Inflation löst, die Fed weiterhin seine Tauben Ton für die Geldpolitik zu mildern und die Zentralbank kann über den Rest des Jahres ein Wait-and-See-Konzept unterstützen, wie politische Entscheidungsträger ein gedeckten Risiko für einen Double-Dip Rezession sehen. Im Gegensatz dazu, es scheint, als ob die Bank of Japan weiterhin auf seine Lockerung Zyklus als neues Vorstandsmitglied zu beginnen, die Takahide Kiuchi verpflichtet sich wird, neue Formen der monetären Unterstützung betrachten und die größere Abweichung in der Politik-Outlook kann eine Hausse Bewegung in die USDJPY Sporn, wie die US-Notenbank besser positionierten normalisieren Geldpolitik vor die BoJ bleibt. Jenseits der Zinssatz Entscheidung der mit Spannung erwartete US Non-Farm Payrolls-Bericht wird voraussichtlich Beschäftigung erhöht ein weiteres 100 K im Juli die 80 K-Expansion nach vorheriger Monat zeigen, und die schnellere Wachstumsrate Stelle kann letztlich eine sinnvolle Bewegung nach oben für die USDJPY produzieren, wie es Erwartungen für QE3 dämpft. Obwohl wir noch sehen verlaufenden Kanals nach unten in die USDJPY gerade, scheint die Baisse Dynamik als die relative Stärke Index Rebounds vor überverkauft Territorium spitz zulaufenden werden deaktiviert. Als Ergebnis der Dollar-Yen könnte setzen in einem kurzfristigen Boden wie wir in den letzten Tagen des Juli fahren, und das Paar für eine Hausse Breakout grundiert, sieht als die Fed bereitet wechseln Getriebe. -DS
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U.S. dollar: Time to shine as a European problem go everywhere
Fundamental Outlook for US-dollar: bullish
The Dow Jones FXCM dollar index (ticker: USDOLLAR) ended the week slightly lower on a sharp late week selloff, but earlier signs of life suggest that the dollar remains comfortably within its upward trend and to win in the coming weeks.
The US dollar open market Committee of the current tariff rallied strongly after the much-anticipated release of minutes from the US Federal decision, but a sharp Friday sale leaves the greenback slightly lower next week trading launched. A relatively limited schedule of economic event risk probably signals that the USD continues to trade from larger financial market sentiment. This is true in particular for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair and other commodity-linked currencies as $correlations to S P 500 & trade close to record strength. So higher specialized works will depend whether the dollar almost certainly of stock indices and other financial market sentiment the trajectory. Two important issues on international investors heads are pretty clear: the future of the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) and the current European fiscal and financial crises.
On the home front, USD bulls reacted positively to signs that the Fed struck a cautious note over the possibility of more QE in recent FOMC minutes. Greenback weakened considerably by 2009 on the first wave of QE and markets exactly QE2 expected in 2010 decreased. Give the US currency could back some of its recent gains on the future announcement of QE3. Still, the Fed stressed the caution that the next wave is a done deal, and the dollar could remain strong, as the Fed keeps the line on the further expansion of the balance sheet. To force across the Atlantic European fiscal and financial crises continue to significant financial market turbulence and greater risk appetite could be depressed about foreseeable. Credit rating agency of Moody's was to pour the latest gasoline in the fire, as it downgraded sovereign credit rating of Italy. The move itself was not surprising, but the timing of the downs seemed to catch many traders off guard. Italian Government, that 10-year quickly traded in towards the top of their several months reach responds yields as traders on the message. (Bond yields above, if the prices go down)
Instability in the third and fourth largest economies of the eurozone (Italy and Spain, respectively) is probably the most immediate threat to the euro as a currency. We keep a watchful eye on Italian and Spanish Government - returns since Spain is a 10-year craft dangerously close to the ultimate 7 percent in Friday of close. The safe harbor U.S. dollar is accordingly flare-ups in the European market will benefit from any tensions. The last sale starts in Italian and Spanish bonds (increase in income) stress that markets tense despite the recently presented Spanish bailout and others remain growth-oriented European action. Continuing turbulence favoured remaining long 'security' and short 'risk' - long US dollar and short euro.
Our shorter-term bias is clear, and we believe that the recent outbreak of the U.S. dollar may be only the beginning of a larger rally. However, much of dollar Outlook depends on whether S & P keeps the US 500 critical support levels. A breakdown of the financial risk of market sentiment would likely produce the US dollar rally what we have expected that. -DR
Sunday, July 22, 2012
Improve profitability with intraday seasonality
Improve profitability with intraday seasonality
All times are in Eastern Time (GMT-05: 00)
To negotiate successfully, it is important that you know what not to do. A comparison of economic profitability and overall customer satisfaction FXCM account activity (number of accounts that traded this time) (Figure 1) suggests that, to prevent the client during the trading hours of the most active. This idea is of course nonsense. The figures do not explain why traders lose during the hours of operation, but it apparently was an inverse correlation between returns and volatility (more market movements, traders lose more) (Figure 2). The increased volatility of exchange promotes impulsive behavior, and ultimately increases the error committed capital is lost.
Figure 3
Not surprisingly, the extreme intraday price volatility and intraday credit are positively correlated. In fact, there is a tendency to price extremes (highs and lows) and higher volatility at the beginning of each session (Asian, European, North American Meetings) can occur. From 2005 to 2009, the first hour of the trading day (18:00 - Asian Open) produced up to the day almost 8% of the time and the low 6% of the time. In a random environment, it seems an extreme price (high or low) to only 4.17% of the time (1/24 = 4.17%). The period of two hours of 3:00-4:00 (open European) has a high 12% of the time and the low 11% of the time (compared to 8.33% for a random environment). From 9.00 to 11.00 clock 3 hours (U.S. Open and commercial versions), a product of high and low of 20% and 21% of the time (compared to 12.5% for a random environment).
These statistics explain the popularity and relative success of open-end strategies. There are several ways you can increase your chances of success of this information. For example,
Set stops above and below the extreme prices during business hours instead of the range of ups and downs that occur random times.
Only light resistance on rallies, and only during business hours within hours.
Buy only supported if, and only appears during the opening hours in the range of hours.
Buying breakouts aperture range
Sell margins on land opened
The information presented here is not a strategy (determination means) itself, but may increase by improving profitability and positioning elements (risk reduction).
All times are in Eastern Time (GMT-05: 00)
To negotiate successfully, it is important that you know what not to do. A comparison of economic profitability and overall customer satisfaction FXCM account activity (number of accounts that traded this time) (Figure 1) suggests that, to prevent the client during the trading hours of the most active. This idea is of course nonsense. The figures do not explain why traders lose during the hours of operation, but it apparently was an inverse correlation between returns and volatility (more market movements, traders lose more) (Figure 2). The increased volatility of exchange promotes impulsive behavior, and ultimately increases the error committed capital is lost.
Figure 1
Figure 2
The distribution of daily price extremes by hour since 2005 (last 5 years) for the EURUSD is as follows.
Figure 3
Not surprisingly, the extreme intraday price volatility and intraday credit are positively correlated. In fact, there is a tendency to price extremes (highs and lows) and higher volatility at the beginning of each session (Asian, European, North American Meetings) can occur. From 2005 to 2009, the first hour of the trading day (18:00 - Asian Open) produced up to the day almost 8% of the time and the low 6% of the time. In a random environment, it seems an extreme price (high or low) to only 4.17% of the time (1/24 = 4.17%). The period of two hours of 3:00-4:00 (open European) has a high 12% of the time and the low 11% of the time (compared to 8.33% for a random environment). From 9.00 to 11.00 clock 3 hours (U.S. Open and commercial versions), a product of high and low of 20% and 21% of the time (compared to 12.5% for a random environment).
These statistics explain the popularity and relative success of open-end strategies. There are several ways you can increase your chances of success of this information. For example,
Set stops above and below the extreme prices during business hours instead of the range of ups and downs that occur random times.
Only light resistance on rallies, and only during business hours within hours.
Buy only supported if, and only appears during the opening hours in the range of hours.
Buying breakouts aperture range
Sell margins on land opened
The information presented here is not a strategy (determination means) itself, but may increase by improving profitability and positioning elements (risk reduction).
U.S. dollars ends week with risk trends, and facilitate U.S. Ahead of GDP
U.S. dollars ends week with risk trends, and facilitate U.S. Ahead of GDP
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Friday brought a welcome sight for the beleaguered dollar: risk aversion and for sale € of particular importance. The fundamental impulse that got us the FXCM U.S. dollar Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5 percent to break his five-day fall of 155 pips. But here we can not recognize the temporary correction of the real trend. As the dollar index and the S & P 500 - two points of reference end of the spectrum of emotions - the movement is only a fraction has delayed the progress of the past week and month. Configure the likelihood of these standards alone would leave us with a scenario of very low probability to see new highs for several months for the dollar and risk aversion in the near future. On the other hand, we find a spark with a negative EURUSD volatile. Amid the anger, on Friday, financial markets, the euro fell to a minimum of two years from its primary and ended the week again to overtake the entire center (or as they call it a technical operator: The decline of 50 percent Fibonacci) of its historic range. Although the dollar has increased significantly before the month is the construction of 22 new levels, would be an act of the influence that the collapse of the EURUSD is an important step in providing represent us there.
With a little more liquid in the world, threat of radical change, there is an imminent danger to the opening 24 to 48 hours per week on new trends that the business climate in the wake of the continued use of fundamental position of the dollar will be taken. The fear that efforts to stem the crisis of the euro are not (and the situation is, in fact, strengthening and extension) would be a spark to be persuasive with the implied volatility in the foreign exchange market in five years, while the minimum requirements for the structure radically have poorer prognoses. The ball of risk aversion is the first step - the move is as follows. In other words, keep the pulse lighter than light. In the last two months, a consistent trend was difficult to maintain because there were too many regular events that have caused investors' expectations and hopes of further support for the political authorities. With Bernanke reinforce the reluctance of banks to QE3 and EZ-finance showing the extent of their desire to stabilize the region, there is no doubt that also provide relief to the round (distance) in addition to the decisions of the meeting as possible . Meanwhile, the U.S. 2Q GDP reading Thurs Friday buffer and catalyst. According to the hope of the masses, the report is an opportunity to be treated to stop an important step. At the same time, according to the expectations and level of surprise, as an indicator that everything you feel, can override stretching.
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
The euro was the worst performing major currencies Friday ... one day that those responsible for the crisis caused by advanced anti allegedly granting the bank bailout in Spain. The gap was on market expectations that lead to the unexpected event, the owner, in addition to the meeting. For the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area in Spain, the salvation of the country, would have approved. Therefore proposed a new vote, which does not support any further details, to the total amount and time confirmed that no progress. Worse, it now seems that banks and investors share the losses must be subordinated. Do not miss the opportunity, the truth of history, and I learned that the rating agency Egan Jones had undermined lowered to CCC + in Spain and one of the largest of the regional government (Valencia) to ask for financial assistance. For a complete description (rather than a bank) rescue looking inevitable. Thus, the EURUSD looks over the edge.
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
There are two entrances, the economic indicators that should be released next week, and the United Kingdom in the Second Quarter GDP reading is one of them. The book occupies a unique position among the great who are not own relationships. It looks like a gateway for the dissemination of EU crisis has not really jumped the firewall, but soon even power can be cut and ambitious fiscal consolidation effort begins to show stress in economy. In other words, the book is temporarily vital phase. This, however, can be shared by a surprising significant data set.
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
Comparisons are always attracted by his Australian counterpart, considering the New Zealand dollar. However, there is a very important difference between the two in the aspect that most high-yield important rates. The Australian dollar rose against the kiwi, although bond yields (New Zealand to invest real income) and deposit rates at a significant premium to the reputation of Australia. Maybe the market is reminded that should keep interest rates the Bank of New Zealand and maintain a neutral tone. Maybe it will take risk aversion, in order to balance the field.
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
With red in a sea of global equities, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar is no doubt flooded, suffer from the recession. However, in comparison with the many attractions of the capital market to limit the currency of high performance managed by their losses. There are a moderate level of dynamic recovery of the money that the top view, cut to facilitate aggressive course, but will dry quickly. With the CPI data for the 2nd Quarter is expected to fall below the target range this week, perhaps soon to be pessimistic, neutral. Risk trends and a new central bank interest rates should also be considered.
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
When the collapse of confidence in the euro zone crisis by fighting, it's easy to be on the consequences of a major break for the EURUSD and possibly expand on the environmental risks usually connect. However, it is important to connect the dots to connect to Europe's most popular refuge - EURCHF. If the pair of the world's most liquid creates a new case under 1.2135, the speculative pressure and fundamental doubts could also put pressure on the SNB 1.2000 EURCHF ground. You can continue to fight, but policy changes are more likely to happen by force.
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
The range and very difficult to continue to contract in gold, and traders seem to have no problems with it, to see - at least they are not price the options. But CBOE Volatility Index dropped to a few months on two new Friday, pushing less on the risk premium. Collected at a higher market activity by risk trends, the potential to reduce the Fed to represent a serious problem until QE3 for gold.
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
U.S. dollar ends week with evolving risks, and facilitate the U.S. on the eve of GDP
Friday brought a welcome sight for the beleaguered dollar: risk aversion and for sale € of particular importance. The fundamental impulse that got us the FXCM U.S. dollar Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5 percent to break his five-day fall of 155 pips. But here we can not recognize the temporary correction of the real trend. As the dollar index and the S & P 500 - two points of reference end of the spectrum of emotions - the movement is only a fraction has delayed the progress of the past week and month. Configure the likelihood of these standards alone would leave us with a scenario of very low probability to see new highs for several months for the dollar and risk aversion in the near future. On the other hand, we find a spark with a negative EURUSD volatile. Amid the anger, on Friday, financial markets, the euro fell to a minimum of two years from its primary and ended the week again to overtake the entire center (or as they call it a technical operator: The decline of 50 percent Fibonacci) of its historic range. Although the dollar has increased significantly before the month is the construction of 22 new levels, would be an act of the influence that the collapse of the EURUSD is an important step in providing represent us there.
With a little more liquid in the world, threat of radical change, there is an imminent danger to the opening 24 to 48 hours per week on new trends that the business climate in the wake of the continued use of fundamental position of the dollar will be taken. The fear that efforts to stem the crisis of the euro are not (and the situation is, in fact, strengthening and extension) would be a spark to be persuasive with the implied volatility in the foreign exchange market in five years, while the minimum requirements for the structure radically have poorer prognoses. The ball of risk aversion is the first step - the move is as follows. In other words, keep the pulse lighter than light. In the last two months, a consistent trend was difficult to maintain because there were too many regular events that have caused investors' expectations and hopes of further support for the political authorities. With Bernanke reinforce the reluctance of banks to QE3 and EZ-finance showing the extent of their desire to stabilize the region, there is no doubt that also provide relief to the round (distance) in addition to the decisions of the meeting as possible . Meanwhile, the U.S. 2Q GDP reading Thurs Friday buffer and catalyst. According to the hope of the masses, the report is an opportunity to be treated to stop an important step. At the same time, according to the expectations and level of surprise, as an indicator that everything you feel, can override stretching.
Euro falls sharply Friday, as fears rise in crisis, despite an agreement Spain
The euro was the worst performing major currencies Friday ... one day that those responsible for the crisis caused by advanced anti allegedly granting the bank bailout in Spain. The gap was on market expectations that lead to the unexpected event, the owner, in addition to the meeting. For the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area in Spain, the salvation of the country, would have approved. Therefore proposed a new vote, which does not support any further details, to the total amount and time confirmed that no progress. Worse, it now seems that banks and investors share the losses must be subordinated. Do not miss the opportunity, the truth of history, and I learned that the rating agency Egan Jones had undermined lowered to CCC + in Spain and one of the largest of the regional government (Valencia) to ask for financial assistance. For a complete description (rather than a bank) rescue looking inevitable. Thus, the EURUSD looks over the edge.
British Pound may solve their fundamental drift Q2 GDP figures
There are two entrances, the economic indicators that should be released next week, and the United Kingdom in the Second Quarter GDP reading is one of them. The book occupies a unique position among the great who are not own relationships. It looks like a gateway for the dissemination of EU crisis has not really jumped the firewall, but soon even power can be cut and ambitious fiscal consolidation effort begins to show stress in economy. In other words, the book is temporarily vital phase. This, however, can be shared by a surprising significant data set.
New Zealand Dollar: How the market reacts to the decision of the Bank of New Zealand?
Comparisons are always attracted by his Australian counterpart, considering the New Zealand dollar. However, there is a very important difference between the two in the aspect that most high-yield important rates. The Australian dollar rose against the kiwi, although bond yields (New Zealand to invest real income) and deposit rates at a significant premium to the reputation of Australia. Maybe the market is reminded that should keep interest rates the Bank of New Zealand and maintain a neutral tone. Maybe it will take risk aversion, in order to balance the field.
The atmosphere Australian dollar anti-risking the loss, the CPI data, this may change
With red in a sea of global equities, the risk-sensitive Australian dollar is no doubt flooded, suffer from the recession. However, in comparison with the many attractions of the capital market to limit the currency of high performance managed by their losses. There are a moderate level of dynamic recovery of the money that the top view, cut to facilitate aggressive course, but will dry quickly. With the CPI data for the 2nd Quarter is expected to fall below the target range this week, perhaps soon to be pessimistic, neutral. Risk trends and a new central bank interest rates should also be considered.
Swiss Franc: the resurgence of sales of € increases pressure on the Swiss National Bank
When the collapse of confidence in the euro zone crisis by fighting, it's easy to be on the consequences of a major break for the EURUSD and possibly expand on the environmental risks usually connect. However, it is important to connect the dots to connect to Europe's most popular refuge - EURCHF. If the pair of the world's most liquid creates a new case under 1.2135, the speculative pressure and fundamental doubts could also put pressure on the SNB 1.2000 EURCHF ground. You can continue to fight, but policy changes are more likely to happen by force.
Narrow range of gold and the risk premium cheap Belie fundamental tension
The range and very difficult to continue to contract in gold, and traders seem to have no problems with it, to see - at least they are not price the options. But CBOE Volatility Index dropped to a few months on two new Friday, pushing less on the risk premium. Collected at a higher market activity by risk trends, the potential to reduce the Fed to represent a serious problem until QE3 for gold.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Japanese Yen Rallies After Bevy of Disappointing US Data
Japanese Yen Rallies After Bevy of Disappointing US Data
THE food: USD existing home sales (JUN) > 4,37 M (5.4%) compared to 4.62 M (+ 1.5%) expected from 4.62 M (0.0%) > USD leading indicators (JUN) > 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected by + 0.4% > USD Philadelphia Fed index (JUL) > 12.9 to 8.0 expected from 16.6 > EURUSD BEARISH
The news always worse for the U.S. economy, since a few months ago was world economy the favourite and is now only a further decay in the photo, the global growth. Three 'medium' importance (after the DailyFX economic calendar) data releases for the US economy have been released, disappointed by 10: 00 am EDT / 14: 00 GMT, and all three. Namely:
Existing home sales for June fell to an annual rate of 4,37 m from 4.62M, well-below 4.62 M pace expected. Sales fell by 5.4% over month while a gain of 1.5% was planned. Leading indicators for June shrank by 0.3%, faster than the 0.1% forecast fall in. The July Philadelphia Fed index improved, but remained the stretched compared to 8.0 expected negative to 12.9. The data come measures to improve the growth prospects at a crucial time, as the Federal weighs reserve more stimuli, but remain questions about what exactly is going to happen. Each Chairman Ben Bernanke was as made clear over the last two days half-yearly report on monetary policy to Congress, while the Federal can do more reserve, if necessary, the necessary structural improvements in the economy will come only through a prudent fiscal policy. To the United States ' said that fiscal policy is corrected, the US economy will continue to fight, no matter what does the Federal Reserve. USD/JPY 1 minute chart: 19 July 2012
Charts
created using MarketScope prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the bevy of disappointing versions of the US dollar initially strengthened, the AUDUSD send lower from 1.0422 to as low as 1.0401, before recovering to 1.0417, which was written at the time of this report. The EURUSD behaved as well as diving from 1.2244 to 1.2230.
The big winner was the Japanese yen, as investors shed the US dollar as the play favorite safe haven: the AUDJPY fell from 81.97 to as low as 81.73; the EURJPY dropped from 96,27 to as low as 96.13; and the USDJPY fell to 78.52 of 78,64, before recovering to 78.57, at the time of this report was written.
THE food: USD existing home sales (JUN) > 4,37 M (5.4%) compared to 4.62 M (+ 1.5%) expected from 4.62 M (0.0%) > USD leading indicators (JUN) > 0.3% vs. 0.1% expected by + 0.4% > USD Philadelphia Fed index (JUL) > 12.9 to 8.0 expected from 16.6 > EURUSD BEARISH
The news always worse for the U.S. economy, since a few months ago was world economy the favourite and is now only a further decay in the photo, the global growth. Three 'medium' importance (after the DailyFX economic calendar) data releases for the US economy have been released, disappointed by 10: 00 am EDT / 14: 00 GMT, and all three. Namely:
Existing home sales for June fell to an annual rate of 4,37 m from 4.62M, well-below 4.62 M pace expected. Sales fell by 5.4% over month while a gain of 1.5% was planned. Leading indicators for June shrank by 0.3%, faster than the 0.1% forecast fall in. The July Philadelphia Fed index improved, but remained the stretched compared to 8.0 expected negative to 12.9. The data come measures to improve the growth prospects at a crucial time, as the Federal weighs reserve more stimuli, but remain questions about what exactly is going to happen. Each Chairman Ben Bernanke was as made clear over the last two days half-yearly report on monetary policy to Congress, while the Federal can do more reserve, if necessary, the necessary structural improvements in the economy will come only through a prudent fiscal policy. To the United States ' said that fiscal policy is corrected, the US economy will continue to fight, no matter what does the Federal Reserve. USD/JPY 1 minute chart: 19 July 2012
Charts
created using MarketScope prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Following the bevy of disappointing versions of the US dollar initially strengthened, the AUDUSD send lower from 1.0422 to as low as 1.0401, before recovering to 1.0417, which was written at the time of this report. The EURUSD behaved as well as diving from 1.2244 to 1.2230.
The big winner was the Japanese yen, as investors shed the US dollar as the play favorite safe haven: the AUDJPY fell from 81.97 to as low as 81.73; the EURJPY dropped from 96,27 to as low as 96.13; and the USDJPY fell to 78.52 of 78,64, before recovering to 78.57, at the time of this report was written.
Spanish debt sale Miss weighs on euro trading
Spanish debt sale Miss weighs on euro trading
Traders were European meeting disappointed, a Spanish debt sale, which brought higher yields and missed a 3 billion maximum target by 20 million euro. Spanish 2014 bonds were sold to 5,204% yield, compared to 4.335% in June, and 5-year notes were 6.46% in today's sale until sold by 6.07% sale on June 21.
Show higher than expected Spanish borrowing costs a dropping confidence in the ailing economy. The German House will most likely approve the EFSF-100 billion euro aid package after Spain; But German Finance Minister Schäuble legislators said that the Spanish Government for the bailout loans were responsible. The Minister further said that the direct bank recapitalisation can be done only under a condition of the sovereign responsibility. This means that the Spanish government debt will likely increase with the upcoming stimulus package, thereby further confidence in Spanish debt lower.
Meanwhile notes to 0.86% yield, down from 1.43% in the last auction, were French 2017 as investors flock to the relatively safer French economy sold. The European session opened with shares up over 1%, vice versa this sent the euro twenty points behind short-term support of 1.2300, but the gains quickly temporary as EURUSD and European shares were most of these profits. Following the news of the Spanish debt sale closer to 1.2250, slightly above the 50% expansion from may up to June low fallen euro.
In other European news UK retail sales (without a car fuel) increased by 0.3% in June, though still disappointing expectations for a rise of 0.4%. Swiss exports were also to 2.6% in June. Many data fed comes including sales existing for June, leading indicators and the Philadelphia today from the United States. for July. Traders should watch for the results of the German House of Commons vote on the Spanish aid package.
EURUSD15 minute: 19 July 2012
Traders were European meeting disappointed, a Spanish debt sale, which brought higher yields and missed a 3 billion maximum target by 20 million euro. Spanish 2014 bonds were sold to 5,204% yield, compared to 4.335% in June, and 5-year notes were 6.46% in today's sale until sold by 6.07% sale on June 21.
Show higher than expected Spanish borrowing costs a dropping confidence in the ailing economy. The German House will most likely approve the EFSF-100 billion euro aid package after Spain; But German Finance Minister Schäuble legislators said that the Spanish Government for the bailout loans were responsible. The Minister further said that the direct bank recapitalisation can be done only under a condition of the sovereign responsibility. This means that the Spanish government debt will likely increase with the upcoming stimulus package, thereby further confidence in Spanish debt lower.
Meanwhile notes to 0.86% yield, down from 1.43% in the last auction, were French 2017 as investors flock to the relatively safer French economy sold. The European session opened with shares up over 1%, vice versa this sent the euro twenty points behind short-term support of 1.2300, but the gains quickly temporary as EURUSD and European shares were most of these profits. Following the news of the Spanish debt sale closer to 1.2250, slightly above the 50% expansion from may up to June low fallen euro.
In other European news UK retail sales (without a car fuel) increased by 0.3% in June, though still disappointing expectations for a rise of 0.4%. Swiss exports were also to 2.6% in June. Many data fed comes including sales existing for June, leading indicators and the Philadelphia today from the United States. for July. Traders should watch for the results of the German House of Commons vote on the Spanish aid package.
EURUSD15 minute: 19 July 2012
US Dollar Classic Technical Report 07.19.2012
19 July 2012 12:42 GMT 
Prices took out support at the bottom of what appears to be a
Flag formation set from the June 20 low, hinting at downward continuation from
here. Sellers are now testing through interim support at 10070, with a break of
that exposing the 10010-32 area marked by the early April top and the 61.8%
retracement. If fully realized, the Flag setup implies a measured target at
9935. The formation’s lower boundary, now at 10089, has been recast as near-term
resistance.
Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index - Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
2.0
Prices took out support at the bottom of what appears to be a
Flag formation set from the June 20 low, hinting at downward continuation from
here. Sellers are now testing through interim support at 10070, with a break of
that exposing the 10010-32 area marked by the early April top and the 61.8%
retracement. If fully realized, the Flag setup implies a measured target at
9935. The formation’s lower boundary, now at 10089, has been recast as near-term
resistance.
Dow Jones FXCM US Dollar Index - Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope
2.0 USD index lower tip on RBA policy poised for correction, AUD to mark
19 July 2012 15: 55 GMT 
although the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) 0.17% remains
lower open, we may look at the rebound of 10.036 speed gain, in the next
24-hours trading as the 30-minute relative strength oversold index territory
back jumps. In fact that whole series of gloomy developments from the world's
largest economy seems will weigh on market sentiment, and see we perhaps
currency traders continue to their risk-taking back when headlines from Europe
fears fuel for scale infection. The EU is fighting to curb the increase in
borrowing costs in Spain, the continued turmoil in the eurozone can continue to
SAP investor confidence and perhaps we provide a flight to safety in the days
when the group maintains a reactionary approach in dealing with the debt crisis
emerge. 
Are
planned as euro-zone finance ministers, Spain EUR bailout discuss 100B today
Germany is likely to vote in favor of the extraordinary action and movement can
support risk-taking behavior, as it reduces the ongoing turmoil in the financial
system. The development can however fail to encourage a meaningful rally in
risk, as the new initiative does little to the cause of the debt crisis, and we
should see that the European Central Bank will continue to go on its easing
cycle than the Governments under the fixed exchange rate more and more on
financial support instructs you. Although the USDOLLAR not up keep up trending
channel within the wider trend, we will remain optimistic for our forecast, as
long as it keeps the June low (10.025) above. The relative strength index, the
upward trend of this year claiming that we should how a rebound get to the end
of the week, and we are looking for dips in the greenback to buy, as risk
sentiment pointed running seems to be way.
Three
of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.57 per cent
rally in the Australian dollar, but the bull market dynamics in the AUDUSD might
be an end approaches, while the relative strength index overbought territory
approaches. The fundamental Outlook for the economy of Australia is generally
expected $1T continue to throw a bearish Outlook for the Aussie dollar, such as
the Reserve Bank to deliver further interest rate cuts in the coming months and
the Central Bank a leader to hit continue to sound for the monetary policy
should, as the slowdown in China - Australia's largest trading partner - puts a
damper on the prospects for economic growth. In turn, we seek the short-term
rally in the AUDUSD fade, and we would have to keep see the pair below the high
April (1.0473), to maintain our bearish forecast.
although the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) 0.17% remains
lower open, we may look at the rebound of 10.036 speed gain, in the next
24-hours trading as the 30-minute relative strength oversold index territory
back jumps. In fact that whole series of gloomy developments from the world's
largest economy seems will weigh on market sentiment, and see we perhaps
currency traders continue to their risk-taking back when headlines from Europe
fears fuel for scale infection. The EU is fighting to curb the increase in
borrowing costs in Spain, the continued turmoil in the eurozone can continue to
SAP investor confidence and perhaps we provide a flight to safety in the days
when the group maintains a reactionary approach in dealing with the debt crisis
emerge. Are
planned as euro-zone finance ministers, Spain EUR bailout discuss 100B today
Germany is likely to vote in favor of the extraordinary action and movement can
support risk-taking behavior, as it reduces the ongoing turmoil in the financial
system. The development can however fail to encourage a meaningful rally in
risk, as the new initiative does little to the cause of the debt crisis, and we
should see that the European Central Bank will continue to go on its easing
cycle than the Governments under the fixed exchange rate more and more on
financial support instructs you. Although the USDOLLAR not up keep up trending
channel within the wider trend, we will remain optimistic for our forecast, as
long as it keeps the June low (10.025) above. The relative strength index, the
upward trend of this year claiming that we should how a rebound get to the end
of the week, and we are looking for dips in the greenback to buy, as risk
sentiment pointed running seems to be way.
Three
of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.57 per cent
rally in the Australian dollar, but the bull market dynamics in the AUDUSD might
be an end approaches, while the relative strength index overbought territory
approaches. The fundamental Outlook for the economy of Australia is generally
expected $1T continue to throw a bearish Outlook for the Aussie dollar, such as
the Reserve Bank to deliver further interest rate cuts in the coming months and
the Central Bank a leader to hit continue to sound for the monetary policy
should, as the slowdown in China - Australia's largest trading partner - puts a
damper on the prospects for economic growth. In turn, we seek the short-term
rally in the AUDUSD fade, and we would have to keep see the pair below the high
April (1.0473), to maintain our bearish forecast.USDCAD classic technical report 07.19.2012
Prices are approaching support on a falling trend line that has the other side
since the beginning of June a barrier reinforced relating to 1.0047-50,
characterised by a former resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement denied.
A lower break exposes the 0.9953 76 region first. Short-term resistance lines in
the 1.0115-23 with a break of the targeting trend right resistance now at
1.0197.
Chart - with FXCM MarketScope 2.0 created 8 hr
Chart - with FXCM MarketScope 2.0 created 8 hr
Saturday, July 14, 2012
The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report
The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report
Analyst 14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT
undamentale Prognose für Gold: Baisse
Der kanadische Dollar gewann an Boden gegen Gegenstück U.S. inmitten den Rebound in Gefahr Gefühl kann, doch die Loonie zu behaupten die Bank of Canada einen vorsichtigen Ausblick für die Region Streik sollte nächste Woche. Das BoC Zinssatz Entscheidung das größte Ereignisrisiko für die folgende Woche zeigt, wie Gouverneur Mark Carney sich Spekulationen für höhere Fremdkapitalkosten spricht, aber Marktteilnehmer weiter können, zurück zu skalieren Wetten für eine Zinsanhebung die Staatsschulden-Krise weiterhin eine Bedrohung für die Region darstellen.
Tatsächlich Gouverneur Carney machte zahlreiche Versuche, auf den Datensatz Anstieg der Haushaltsverschuldung zu sprechen, und vielleicht sehen wir die Zentralbank Kopf weiterhin die Idee für eine mögliche Zinserhöhung inmitten Ängste vor einer Immobilienblase zu schweben. Obwohl wir Lichtblicke in der kanadischen Wirtschaft sehen, beschränkten die BoC Gesichter Bereich um das Normalisieren Geldpolitik inmitten der anhaltenden Turbulenzen in Europa. Dadurch können wir die Zentralbank seine warten-and-See-Ansatz in 2013 tragen sehen. In einer Umfrage von Bloomberg News Übernachtung alle der 22 Ökonomen Befragten Prognose BoC Zinssatz 1,00 % halten, während den Marktteilnehmern die Zentralbank Festhalten an seiner warten-and-See-Ansatz über die nächsten 12 Monate laut Credit Suisse finden Sie unter Index Swaps.
Zur gleichen Zeit werden wir genau verfolgt werden den vierteljährlichen geldpolitischen Bericht due out am 18. Juli wie die Zentralbank ihre aktualisierten Prognose für Wachstum und Inflation sowie den Bericht mein Highlight eine geschwächte Outlook für die Region präsentieren wird wie die USA – Kanadas größter Handelspartner – eine Verlangsamung Erholung steht. Wiederum die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik kann dämpfen die Beschwerde mit dem kanadischen Dollar, aber der Verbraucherpreis-Bericht vom Fass für Freitag erneuere Spekulation für höhere Kreditkosten wie die Kern-Rate der Inflation erwartet wird, um im schnellsten Tempo für 2012 zu erweitern. Als die USDCAD weiterhin über die 78.6 % Fibonacci-Retracement aus der 2007 halten, niedrig, die 2009 um hohe 1.0100-10, wir sehen weiterhin, dass das Paar eine kurzfristige Basis um die Kennzahl aufbauen und die technische Perspektiven flößt eine Hausse Voreingenommenheit für die Dollar-Loonie als der relative Stärke Index Pausen heraus von den Abwärtstrend. Wiederum eine ganze Reihe von Leitzinssenkung Kommentare von BoC einen anderen laufen bei 1.0400 auslösen kann, und frische 2012 Höhen des Wechselkurses können wir sehen, wie er sich ein höheres tief im Juli schnitzt. -DS
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14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT
Analyst 14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT
undamentale Prognose für Gold: Baisse
Der kanadische Dollar gewann an Boden gegen Gegenstück U.S. inmitten den Rebound in Gefahr Gefühl kann, doch die Loonie zu behaupten die Bank of Canada einen vorsichtigen Ausblick für die Region Streik sollte nächste Woche. Das BoC Zinssatz Entscheidung das größte Ereignisrisiko für die folgende Woche zeigt, wie Gouverneur Mark Carney sich Spekulationen für höhere Fremdkapitalkosten spricht, aber Marktteilnehmer weiter können, zurück zu skalieren Wetten für eine Zinsanhebung die Staatsschulden-Krise weiterhin eine Bedrohung für die Region darstellen.
Tatsächlich Gouverneur Carney machte zahlreiche Versuche, auf den Datensatz Anstieg der Haushaltsverschuldung zu sprechen, und vielleicht sehen wir die Zentralbank Kopf weiterhin die Idee für eine mögliche Zinserhöhung inmitten Ängste vor einer Immobilienblase zu schweben. Obwohl wir Lichtblicke in der kanadischen Wirtschaft sehen, beschränkten die BoC Gesichter Bereich um das Normalisieren Geldpolitik inmitten der anhaltenden Turbulenzen in Europa. Dadurch können wir die Zentralbank seine warten-and-See-Ansatz in 2013 tragen sehen. In einer Umfrage von Bloomberg News Übernachtung alle der 22 Ökonomen Befragten Prognose BoC Zinssatz 1,00 % halten, während den Marktteilnehmern die Zentralbank Festhalten an seiner warten-and-See-Ansatz über die nächsten 12 Monate laut Credit Suisse finden Sie unter Index Swaps.
Zur gleichen Zeit werden wir genau verfolgt werden den vierteljährlichen geldpolitischen Bericht due out am 18. Juli wie die Zentralbank ihre aktualisierten Prognose für Wachstum und Inflation sowie den Bericht mein Highlight eine geschwächte Outlook für die Region präsentieren wird wie die USA – Kanadas größter Handelspartner – eine Verlangsamung Erholung steht. Wiederum die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik kann dämpfen die Beschwerde mit dem kanadischen Dollar, aber der Verbraucherpreis-Bericht vom Fass für Freitag erneuere Spekulation für höhere Kreditkosten wie die Kern-Rate der Inflation erwartet wird, um im schnellsten Tempo für 2012 zu erweitern. Als die USDCAD weiterhin über die 78.6 % Fibonacci-Retracement aus der 2007 halten, niedrig, die 2009 um hohe 1.0100-10, wir sehen weiterhin, dass das Paar eine kurzfristige Basis um die Kennzahl aufbauen und die technische Perspektiven flößt eine Hausse Voreingenommenheit für die Dollar-Loonie als der relative Stärke Index Pausen heraus von den Abwärtstrend. Wiederum eine ganze Reihe von Leitzinssenkung Kommentare von BoC einen anderen laufen bei 1.0400 auslösen kann, und frische 2012 Höhen des Wechselkurses können wir sehen, wie er sich ein höheres tief im Juli schnitzt. -DS
DailyFX bietet Forex News und technische Analyse zu den Trends, die die globalen Devisenmärkten beeinflussen.
Erfahren Sie Forex trading mit ein Kostenloses Übungskonto und Charts von FXCM trading.
14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT
$ Dollar falls into weekend – character of What’s come Monday?
$ Dollar falls into weekend – character of What’s come Monday?
Error in deserializing body of reply message for operation 'Translate'. The maximum string content length quota (8192) has been exceeded while reading XML data. This quota may be increased by changing the MaxStringContentLength property on the XmlDictionaryReaderQuotas object used when creating the XML reader. Line 1, position 8550. Error in deserializing body of reply message for operation 'Translate'. The maximum string content length quota (8192) has been exceeded while reading XML data. This quota may be increased by changing the MaxStringContentLength property on the XmlDictionaryReaderQuotas object used when creating the XML reader. Line 1, position 8601. Dollar Tumbles Into Weekend – A Sign of What’s to Come Monday? Euro Faces Another Round of Disappointment, May Still Rebound British Pound Receives a Significant Boost from BoE Lending Details Australian Dollar Looks to Sentiment as its Yield Continues its Drop Canadian Dollar: BoC Rate Decision on Tap, Reminder of Loonie’s Unique Position Swiss Franc: Bond Yields Plunge into Negative Territory, Will Investors Waver? Gold Rallies Against Euro, High Yield Currencies on Risk-Positive Session Dollar Tumbles Into Weekend – A Sign of What’s to Come Monday?
Having worked so hard to finally overtake resistance that had capped bullish ambitions for an entire month, you’d think the dollar would have won some respite from the sentiment-based headwinds. That said, Friday ended with a sizable decline for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) back below that closely-watched 10,190 level. Once again, we are reminded of the critical difference between a breakout and break with follow through. The immediate reversal from the greenback is perhaps a little more surprising given the initial move was supported by a general slide in risk trends. That said, when we are confronted with technical boundaries like the midpoint of the EURUSD’s historical range and the fact that there are few fundamental catalysts to actively drive capital towards safe havens that provide no (or even negative) yield, the lack of follow through becomes a little more comprehensible. Can we jump start a trend for the dollar – whether bullish or bearish?
If you were looking for fundamental cues from the fundamental event risk from the final 24 hours of this past week as guidance for where we will go heading forward, you may be disappointed. The Chinese 2Q GDP figures (setting the tone for global growth expectations amongst investors) printed below expected with a 7.6 percent annual pace of expansion – the weakest pace in three years but not enough of a surprise to stir concern. Closer to home, JPMorgan started the ball rolling for the US earnings season with a view into the closely-monitored financial market. A massive $4.4 billion loss via the CIO debacle didn’t seem to materially hamper adjusted earnings. As dubious as corporate earnings are (as a gauge for capital gains and yields for the equities market – the favored investment of retail trader), we cannot ignore it if the market is placated by the figures. The earnings season continues next week with Bank of American, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Apple and Google amongst other notables. Watch it with a mind to how the masses read the numbers. Though it is difficult to see any, individual fundamental event as a potential catalyst to truly drive risk appetite forward; Fed Chairman Bernanke’s monetary policy report will always carry the possibility of an announcement of intentions for further stimulus. To what degree markets are still holding out hope (and thereby possibly be disappointed) remains to be seen.
Euro Faces Another Round of Disappointment, May Still Rebound
The euro has dropped sharply over the past two weeks, so a correction is not difficult to wrestle from overexposed bears. From a medium-to-long term fundamental perspective, uncertainty and lack of a solid safety net for another wave of Euro panic leaves the currency and region exposed. Yet, we have seen far too many instances were underwhelming or incomplete efforts have bought the euro time - whether through an easily soothed Euro market or simply an improvement in underlying sentiment is debatable. The media and analysts punched holes in the EU Summit’s vows almost immediately after they were issued, but that baton seems to have been dropped. In the upcoming week, we will nevertheless be reminded of the situation. On Wednesday, the EU will release a report on the public finances of the Euro Zone; but the bigger headline will be Friday’s Finance Ministers meeting, where they are supposed to finally agree on Spain’s rescue terms and potentially touch on Greece and the bigger terms of using the ESM to participate in the ongoing stability effort. Though it doesn’t draw much immediate market reaction, it is also worthwhile to keep an eye on important bond auctions. Spain, Greece and Portugal are all on deck to sell debt; and the rates that they draw (more than the aggregate demand, which can be national banks) reminds us of the market’s expectations.
British Pound Receives a Significant Boost from BoE Lending Details
Though it was somewhat lost in the general advance for most risk-based currencies, the sterling managed to rally against everyone of its major counterparts – safe havens, high yield carry currencies and euro alike. Clearly there was an additional fundamental factor, and that came from the Bank of England. The policy authority issued details on its lending program whereby banks can borrow T-Bills to use as collateral for loans. The program could boost credit as much as 80 billion sterling. Next week, keep an eye on the BoE minutes and jobs figures.
Australian Dollar Looks to Sentiment as its Yield Continues its Drop
Wherever risk trends head, the Australian dollar will inevitably follow (the AUDUSD’s 20-day rolling correlation to the S&P 500 is currently 0.89 percent). That said, there will be a question as to whether the Aussie shows greater sensitive to a rise or a fall in sentiment. The RBA has already delivered a string of cuts against heavy projects of easing. There would imply that there is some relief available from over-extended dovish forecasts, but the 12 month rate forecast is actually heading lower again (now calling for more than 100 bps of cuts again). Furthermore, the benchmark 10-year Australian government bond yield is at 5-week lows – very near the record low set in early June.
Canadian Dollar: BoC Rate Decision on Tap, Reminder of Loonie’s Unique Position
It seems that whenever there is a lull in serious calendar event risk, that the Canadian dollar steps in to fill the void with its own offerings. That will be the case in the coming week. On deck we have a few important readings. The Bank of Canada’s rate decision carries the most flash. Though they won’t alter policy, they will likely retain their neutral to hawkish lean that draws such a stark contrast to global counterparts (especially recently). The Monetary Policy report will follow shortly after along with an expected rebound in inflation pressures on Friday.
Swiss Franc: Bond Yields Plunge into Negative Territory, Will Investors Waver?
The yields on the short-end of the Swiss yield curve were already in negative territory, but the pressure significantly increased this past Friday. The 2-year note’s rate closed at -0.402 percent - a record low. Swiss authorities have repeatedly threatened negative interest rates as a further deterrent against an appreciating franc, but this is clearly not an option. That leaves a floor raise or capital curbs if they have to act.
Gold Rallies Against Euro, High Yield Currencies on Risk-Positive Session
A tumble for the US dollar is good enough reason for gold to find some traction, but to see the precious metal rally against higher yielding currencies is something else. For a risk-positive day, we would expect capital to move away from alternative stores of wealth and into something with higher (any) yield. Such a situation can often times be a sign that risk trends are flimsy and likely to fall apart.
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**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
Indicator of confidence in China’s economy
NZD Performance Services Index
CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)
Last month was the first retracement in a 3 month decline.
CHF Industrial Production (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)
Many EU countries have already reports a decrease in inflationary pressure during June.
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros)
Germany’s trade balanced declined during May.
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros)
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar)
June Vehicle sales beat expectation.
May Wholesale inventory growth rate slowed down.
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
IMF to Release Updated Growth Forecasts
Q2 Earnings – Morgan Stanley and Citigroup
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
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Having worked so hard to finally overtake resistance that had capped bullish ambitions for an entire month, you’d think the dollar would have won some respite from the sentiment-based headwinds. That said, Friday ended with a sizable decline for the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker = USDollar) back below that closely-watched 10,190 level. Once again, we are reminded of the critical difference between a breakout and break with follow through. The immediate reversal from the greenback is perhaps a little more surprising given the initial move was supported by a general slide in risk trends. That said, when we are confronted with technical boundaries like the midpoint of the EURUSD’s historical range and the fact that there are few fundamental catalysts to actively drive capital towards safe havens that provide no (or even negative) yield, the lack of follow through becomes a little more comprehensible. Can we jump start a trend for the dollar – whether bullish or bearish?
If you were looking for fundamental cues from the fundamental event risk from the final 24 hours of this past week as guidance for where we will go heading forward, you may be disappointed. The Chinese 2Q GDP figures (setting the tone for global growth expectations amongst investors) printed below expected with a 7.6 percent annual pace of expansion – the weakest pace in three years but not enough of a surprise to stir concern. Closer to home, JPMorgan started the ball rolling for the US earnings season with a view into the closely-monitored financial market. A massive $4.4 billion loss via the CIO debacle didn’t seem to materially hamper adjusted earnings. As dubious as corporate earnings are (as a gauge for capital gains and yields for the equities market – the favored investment of retail trader), we cannot ignore it if the market is placated by the figures. The earnings season continues next week with Bank of American, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Apple and Google amongst other notables. Watch it with a mind to how the masses read the numbers. Though it is difficult to see any, individual fundamental event as a potential catalyst to truly drive risk appetite forward; Fed Chairman Bernanke’s monetary policy report will always carry the possibility of an announcement of intentions for further stimulus. To what degree markets are still holding out hope (and thereby possibly be disappointed) remains to be seen.
Euro Faces Another Round of Disappointment, May Still Rebound
The euro has dropped sharply over the past two weeks, so a correction is not difficult to wrestle from overexposed bears. From a medium-to-long term fundamental perspective, uncertainty and lack of a solid safety net for another wave of Euro panic leaves the currency and region exposed. Yet, we have seen far too many instances were underwhelming or incomplete efforts have bought the euro time - whether through an easily soothed Euro market or simply an improvement in underlying sentiment is debatable. The media and analysts punched holes in the EU Summit’s vows almost immediately after they were issued, but that baton seems to have been dropped. In the upcoming week, we will nevertheless be reminded of the situation. On Wednesday, the EU will release a report on the public finances of the Euro Zone; but the bigger headline will be Friday’s Finance Ministers meeting, where they are supposed to finally agree on Spain’s rescue terms and potentially touch on Greece and the bigger terms of using the ESM to participate in the ongoing stability effort. Though it doesn’t draw much immediate market reaction, it is also worthwhile to keep an eye on important bond auctions. Spain, Greece and Portugal are all on deck to sell debt; and the rates that they draw (more than the aggregate demand, which can be national banks) reminds us of the market’s expectations.
British Pound Receives a Significant Boost from BoE Lending Details
Though it was somewhat lost in the general advance for most risk-based currencies, the sterling managed to rally against everyone of its major counterparts – safe havens, high yield carry currencies and euro alike. Clearly there was an additional fundamental factor, and that came from the Bank of England. The policy authority issued details on its lending program whereby banks can borrow T-Bills to use as collateral for loans. The program could boost credit as much as 80 billion sterling. Next week, keep an eye on the BoE minutes and jobs figures.
Australian Dollar Looks to Sentiment as its Yield Continues its Drop
Wherever risk trends head, the Australian dollar will inevitably follow (the AUDUSD’s 20-day rolling correlation to the S&P 500 is currently 0.89 percent). That said, there will be a question as to whether the Aussie shows greater sensitive to a rise or a fall in sentiment. The RBA has already delivered a string of cuts against heavy projects of easing. There would imply that there is some relief available from over-extended dovish forecasts, but the 12 month rate forecast is actually heading lower again (now calling for more than 100 bps of cuts again). Furthermore, the benchmark 10-year Australian government bond yield is at 5-week lows – very near the record low set in early June.
Canadian Dollar: BoC Rate Decision on Tap, Reminder of Loonie’s Unique Position
It seems that whenever there is a lull in serious calendar event risk, that the Canadian dollar steps in to fill the void with its own offerings. That will be the case in the coming week. On deck we have a few important readings. The Bank of Canada’s rate decision carries the most flash. Though they won’t alter policy, they will likely retain their neutral to hawkish lean that draws such a stark contrast to global counterparts (especially recently). The Monetary Policy report will follow shortly after along with an expected rebound in inflation pressures on Friday.
Swiss Franc: Bond Yields Plunge into Negative Territory, Will Investors Waver?
The yields on the short-end of the Swiss yield curve were already in negative territory, but the pressure significantly increased this past Friday. The 2-year note’s rate closed at -0.402 percent - a record low. Swiss authorities have repeatedly threatened negative interest rates as a further deterrent against an appreciating franc, but this is clearly not an option. That leaves a floor raise or capital curbs if they have to act.
Gold Rallies Against Euro, High Yield Currencies on Risk-Positive Session
A tumble for the US dollar is good enough reason for gold to find some traction, but to see the precious metal rally against higher yielding currencies is something else. For a risk-positive day, we would expect capital to move away from alternative stores of wealth and into something with higher (any) yield. Such a situation can often times be a sign that risk trends are flimsy and likely to fall apart.
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**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
Indicator of confidence in China’s economy
NZD Performance Services Index
CHF Industrial Production (QoQ)
Last month was the first retracement in a 3 month decline.
CHF Industrial Production (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)
Many EU countries have already reports a decrease in inflationary pressure during June.
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM)
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros)
Germany’s trade balanced declined during May.
EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros)
CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar)
June Vehicle sales beat expectation.
May Wholesale inventory growth rate slowed down.
USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas
IMF to Release Updated Growth Forecasts
Q2 Earnings – Morgan Stanley and Citigroup
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
Euro is at historical midpoint needs collapse in risk appetite to proceed
Euro at historical midpoint needs collapse in risk appetite to proceed
14 July 2012 03: 00 GMT
fundamental Outlook for the euro: neutral
fundamental Outlook for the euro: neutral
There is no shortage of basic
justification for the euro to expand its painful collapse, but history has
taught us that the market will decide, it is important and what is not. Last
week, EURUSD fell to its lowest level in two years - a region that is intended
for historical area (about 1.2135) especially in the middle between the two.
Purely fundamental point of view, we could show the failed promises of the EU
Summit and erosion of confidence in the ability to stabilize its financial
sector as the source for this plight. But the headlines were not line, until the
news crossing the wires more sparsely (compared to the lead up to the Summit two
weeks ago) and price action. By the last week of the EURUSD daily far the S
& P 500 futures than one organized event drivers.
In the past the correlation between the became world's most liquid currency
pair (EURUSD) and my preferred measure of risk appetite (the course long biased
and stimulus-based S & P 500) quite heavily. This should in no small part
the greenback as the ultimate liquidity provider and the euro position as Center
of the world's largest financial threat. However the balance of emotions leads
around moving forward rather the health of the European financial system, rather
than the other way. This means that the round of open and detail-deficient buy
vows of the EU Summit as an another successful bid will be on time - rather than
to solve the underlying problem.
In General, can risk trends, we measure the
market tolerance for the inclusion of otherwise dubious European assets. EURUSD
position just above its historical center and the ground of a long-term
technical congestion pattern specified, it makes sense that a strong fundamental
impetus is necessary if we are to finally move below 1.2000. Looking for heavy
hitting catalysts ahead, there mangelnder are big-ticket items such as a
provisional GDP reading to global growth expectations or a critical policy
collection, which could on the initiative hopes to lead. The market remains open
to distract his own way without distractions or catalysts to it to find. We have
a barrel on Monday to IMF sees growth. There is some ongoing hope that Bernanke
the topic QE3 Tuesday and Wednesday - another source of disappointment can to
respond to testimony his Congressional, if it does not occur to one. Perhaps one
of the most influential (but derogatory vague) developments is the construction
of the 2Q U.S. corporate earnings season. To impress that collective
expectations for returns have been set too high chance of the market is an open
invitation to the relax.
Although the general condition of the atmosphere on global markets should not
more influence over the euro next week can have health, we optimize the
fundamental event risk of the euro process list. Given the dubious, long-term
health of the eurozone itself; Undermine developments that gain the offer of
stability shifts in the global currents can expose further troubling the region.
Perhaps the most compelling event risk is EU Finance Ministers meeting on
Friday. This is supposedly a follow up of the July 9 meeting the implementation
of direct rescue of the ruler of the ESM, to discuss terms Spain rescue and
again Greece. After two details to work out failed in the Tower, yet
expectations probably low. On Wednesday, the EU will release a report on the
public finances of the euro zone. This can provide either a rude awakening or
(more likely) it an optimistic turn on bad numbers - leading sets in the market
write. Also worth mentioning is a round of bond auctions. Greece, Portugal (his
second since code format order the market since his rescue), Spain and Italy to
sell all debt. Even though they have no serious market events be on the move,
they have constantly pursued, deteriorated confidence.
As we weigh the
fundamental reality to the capricious appetite of speculators, it is considering
alternative complications in capital flows. A theory for the euro, which has
gained considerable traction recently is that a deterioration leads the regional
financial conditions and decrease of your risk tolerance, capital of foreign
investors to repatriate European banks. A Bank of America research report
illustrates a more foreign euro banks as a 40 percent decline in stocks since
2008. This could prove that a permanent buffer with the sale of pressure
thought, completely probably would compensate for it not. Now I'm a basic bear
with technical and speculative reservations for follow through. -JK
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14 July 2012 03: 00 GMT
Gold range is at risk amid Bernanke testimony, Fed’s beige book
Fundamental
Outlook for gold: neutral
Trade is modest fixed gold at the end of this week with the precious 0.59% by
the close of trade Friday ahead. Prices remained largely within a clearly
defined range almost nine weeks now when participants try to assess market with
gold of seemingly broad risk-weighted assets since the end of June to track
future monetary policy by global central banks. Gold bars of the 20-tägige
correlation with the S & P-500 has currently highest reached since November
2010 is 0.72 and the metal likely to cope with current range as markets continue
to growing concern over global growth prospects.On Wednesday, the FOMC Protocol offered added little hope for investors who eagerly greater calls expect additional financial support were. In fact continue to the majority in the Committee little room for one more large-scale asset program with the minutes revealed that only "a few members said, more impulse would probably be needed." As the fresh batch of the Central Bank the chance for QE3 dampens rhetoric increased the displacement of the policy Outlook the attractiveness of the dollar, which will limit expected to be substantial progress in the gold price in the meantime. A look at the next week, dealers will loans be a great ear for remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, he before Bank Committee on Tuesday and the House witnessed financial services Committee on Wednesday. However, investors may overlook Bernanke notes before the Fed beige book, which is scheduled for publication on Thursday at 1800GMT and maybe we see the twelve districts after positive assessment of last month highlight improvements in the Fed further continuing the report. However, if the report shows added to signs of strains on economic activity, was speculation for further relaxation of the Central Bank keep gold prices well supported as the call for the yellow metal as a store of value increases prosperity.
From a technical perspective, gold is in the consolidation of the last nine weeks remained, as prices in the apex of the triangle formation within the range between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci extensions, that September and February of highs at $1640 to $1545 or taken to consolidate. Break below the 61.8% enlargement succeeding eyes land at $1500 and the mouth of July 2011 lows and 78.6% extension at $1480. interim resistance is at $1600 with a break on the heights in relief of 1625 in the short term more downside pressure July. In other words, we break out the several months range neutral remain at these levels until one. -MB
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish
Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish
12 July 2012 12:55 GMT Talking Points
Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August
The Euro tumbled to a fresh yearly low of 1.2169 amid the weakening outlook for the region, and the pair may continue to track lower over the remainder of the week as the European Central Bank strikes a dovish tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the ECB warned that the downside risks for the region ‘have materialized’ in its monthly report, and went onto say that the fundamental outlook remains clouded by ‘heightened uncertainty’ as European policy makers struggle to stem the risk for contagion.
In turn, ECB board member Jozef Makuch said that the central bank ‘will use all the tools it has already used or new measures’ to shore up the ailing economy, and it seems as though the Governing Council is leaning towards a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as the region faces a threat for a prolonged recession. As the downward trend in the EURUSD continues to take shape, we will maintain our bearish forecast for the pair, and the euro-dollar looks poised to give back the rebound from 2010 (1.1875) as market participants expect to see lower borrowing costs in Europe. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are now pricing an 83% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the August 2 meeting, and we should see the Governing Council continue to embark on its easing cycle as growth and inflation falter.
British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus
The British Pound continued to consolidate on Thursday, with the GBPUSD slipping to a fresh weekly low of 1.5432, and the sterling may continue to give back the rebound from 1.5268 as market participants scale back their appetite for risk. We may see the GBPUSD continue to trade within a broad range as it remains supported by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270, but the Bank of England Minutes on tap for the week ahead may produce a meaningful move in the exchange rate as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Until then, we should see risk trends continue to dictate price action for the GBPUSD, and the pair may weaken further over the remainder of the week as the flight to safety picks up.
U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP
The near-term outlook for the greenback remains bullish as the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) breaks out of the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month, and the reserve currency may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as market sentiment falters. As China’s 2Q GDP report comes into focus, we’re expecting to see growth expand at the slowest pace since 2009, fears of a ‘hard landing’ may continue to sap risk-taking behavior, and the short-term rally in the dollar may gather pace in the coming days as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows.
12 July 2012 12:55 GMT
Talking Points Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August
The Euro tumbled to a fresh yearly low of 1.2169 amid the weakening outlook for the region, and the pair may continue to track lower over the remainder of the week as the European Central Bank strikes a dovish tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the ECB warned that the downside risks for the region ‘have materialized’ in its monthly report, and went onto say that the fundamental outlook remains clouded by ‘heightened uncertainty’ as European policy makers struggle to stem the risk for contagion.
In turn, ECB board member Jozef Makuch said that the central bank ‘will use all the tools it has already used or new measures’ to shore up the ailing economy, and it seems as though the Governing Council is leaning towards a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as the region faces a threat for a prolonged recession. As the downward trend in the EURUSD continues to take shape, we will maintain our bearish forecast for the pair, and the euro-dollar looks poised to give back the rebound from 2010 (1.1875) as market participants expect to see lower borrowing costs in Europe. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are now pricing an 83% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the August 2 meeting, and we should see the Governing Council continue to embark on its easing cycle as growth and inflation falter.
British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus
The British Pound continued to consolidate on Thursday, with the GBPUSD slipping to a fresh weekly low of 1.5432, and the sterling may continue to give back the rebound from 1.5268 as market participants scale back their appetite for risk. We may see the GBPUSD continue to trade within a broad range as it remains supported by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270, but the Bank of England Minutes on tap for the week ahead may produce a meaningful move in the exchange rate as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Until then, we should see risk trends continue to dictate price action for the GBPUSD, and the pair may weaken further over the remainder of the week as the flight to safety picks up.
U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP
The near-term outlook for the greenback remains bullish as the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) breaks out of the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month, and the reserve currency may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as market sentiment falters. As China’s 2Q GDP report comes into focus, we’re expecting to see growth expand at the slowest pace since 2009, fears of a ‘hard landing’ may continue to sap risk-taking behavior, and the short-term rally in the dollar may gather pace in the coming days as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows.
Dollar,Breakout,Beginning
Dollar,Breakout,Beginning
12 July 2012 15:30 GMT
Retail FX trading crowds are now nearly their most aggressively net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen since the USDJPY traded near record-lows in February. The sharp jump in crowd buying underlines the fact that most believe the Japanese Yen is unlikely to challenge fresh highs (USDJPY lows). The Japanese Yen nonetheless stands to strengthen as the Bank of Japan withholds further monetary policy stimulus and markets turn risk-averse.
The retail trading crowd is often ‘right’ at the turns; the SSI showed traders were their most net-long USDJPY on record as the pair bottomed in February. Yet current extremes could just as easily be a precursor for continued declines, and we remain bearish the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen on such one-sided sentiment.
How do we interpret and trade with the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.
12 July 2012 15:30 GMT
Retail FX trading crowds are now nearly their most aggressively net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen since the USDJPY traded near record-lows in February. The sharp jump in crowd buying underlines the fact that most believe the Japanese Yen is unlikely to challenge fresh highs (USDJPY lows). The Japanese Yen nonetheless stands to strengthen as the Bank of Japan withholds further monetary policy stimulus and markets turn risk-averse.
The retail trading crowd is often ‘right’ at the turns; the SSI showed traders were their most net-long USDJPY on record as the pair bottomed in February. Yet current extremes could just as easily be a precursor for continued declines, and we remain bearish the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen on such one-sided sentiment.
How do we interpret and trade with the SSI? Watch an FXCM Expo Presentation that explains the SSI.
US Dollar Breakout is Only the Beginning
12 July 2012 15: 41 GMT
retail forex trading crowds have aggressively sold into US dollar (ticker:
USDOLLAR) rallies against the euro and British pound. Such one-sided sentiment
gives contrarian signal that the EURUSD and GBPUSD may fall to fresh lows.
The Dow Jones FXCM dollar index now trades at monthly highs as the euro if to fresh multi-year lows, and our proprietary retail forex-based speculative sentiment index gives reason to expect further USD strength. Indeed, our technical forecast predicts that the USDOLLAR targets multi-year peaks on the broader greenback rally. We use our proprietary SSI data as a contrarian indicator. If crowds are aggressively long, price can and often will head lower in the opposite direction and trade. Our sentiment-based strategies have accordingly bought into USD strength against the euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar. We expect the US dollar may continue to strengthen through near-term trading.
How do we interpret and trade with the SSI? Watch on FXCM Expo presentation that explains the SSI.
USD at July highs as Dow falls for 6th straight Day-China GDP on tap
USD at July highs as Dow falls for 6th straight Day-China GDP on tap
Der
Greenback ist fester am Ende der North American Handel mit Dow Jones FXCM Dollar
Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) Förderung von 0,29 % auf die Sitzung nach dem Umzug
nahezu 100 % der seine tägliche durchschnittliche true Bereich. Die Gewinne
kommen auf der Rückseite noch ein Ausverkauf an den Aktienmärkten, die die
Mehrheit der kämpfen, um die frühen Verluste pare Sitzung ausgegeben. Stimmung
bleibt fragil, nachdem gestrigen FOMC-Protokoll nicht Investoren, die eifrig
eine Verschiebung im Ausschuss zu Gunsten weitere Lockerung von der Zentralbank
Vorwegnahme wurden zu beeindrucken. Märkte bleiben am Rand vor dem heutigen 2Q
chinesische BIP Print mit Analystenkonsensus beim Lesen von 7,7 % y/y, nach
unten aus einer früheren Auflage von 8,1 % y/y gefordert. Die Daten würden die
niedrigsten gelesen auf das chinesische Wachstum seit 2Q 2009 markieren und
konnte Zurichs der letzten Ausverkauf in Gefahr. Es ist jedoch anzumerken, dass
die Baisse Stimmung hinsichtlich dieser Druck hat sich im Laufe der Woche
durchgesetzt und eine stärker als erwartet lesen Sie Märkte, die einen Teil des
Niedergangs der Woche pare sehen konnte. Alle drei großen Aktienindizes waren im
roten Ende des Handels in New York mit der Dow, S & P und NASDAQ Weg von
0,25 %, 0,50 % und 0,75 % beziehungsweise.
Der Dollar brach über dem täglichen Widerstand bei den 78,6 %
Fibonacci-Erweiterung aus der Oktober und Februar Tröge bei 10.180 vor der
Begegnung mit Widerstand bei den 10.220 weiches Ziel genommen. Beachten Sie,
dass der Bruch oberhalb der 28. Juni Hochs bei 10.193 Verletzung über den Hals
ein umgekehrtes Kopf SKS-Formation mit obenliegender Beständigkeit Zielvorgaben
bei 10.270 und die 100 %-Erweiterung 10.318 Augen darstellt. Tägliche
Unterstützung bleibt unter der pro-Tiefs bei 10.134, die die Oktober-Höhen
darstellen. Dieses Niveau bleibt nun vorrangig mit einer Pause unten einen
Pullback auf die wichtige 61,8 %-Erweiterung 10.072 riskieren. Tägliche RSI
Augen jetzt eine Verletzung über der 60-Marke, mit einem solchen Szenario bietet
weitere Überzeugung auf unsere direktionale Voreingenommenheit.
Eine
stündliche Kopfhaut-Diagramm zeigt den Index erholt aus dem 100 % Fibonacci
Verlängerung vom 20. Juni und 29. Tröge auf 10.216 vor Schließung knapp über
weiche Unterstützung bei 10.200. Der Dollar hat sich innerhalb der Grenzen einer
aufsteigenden Kanal-Formation mit einer Verletzung über einstweilige Widerstand
betrachtete nachfolgende Ziele auf 10.235, 123,6 % Erweiterung an 10.255 und
10.270 weiter. Eine Bewegung unter 78.6 % Erweiterung an 10.180 macht die Kopf
SKS-Formation mit einem solchen Szenario betrachtete nachfolgende Etagen auf
61,8 % Erweiterung an 10.152, 10.132 und 38,2 % Erweiterung an 10.112 ungültig.
Der
Greenback erweiterte gegen drei der vier Währungen hervorgehoben durch einen
1,07 % Fortschritt gegenüber dem australischen Dollar. Enttäuschend
Beschäftigungsdaten und einer anhaltenden Risiko-aus Umgebung haben stark den
Aussie belastet die unterhalb der Kanal-Unterstützung aus dem 1.Juni
Übernachtung Handel brach. Suchen Sie das Paar, das unter Druck bleiben, wie
Erwartungen für weitere Lockerung von der RBA mit Credit Suisse über Nacht Swaps
fassen jetzt factoring in 71 % Chance einen 25 Basispunkte auf der nächsten
Sitzung der Politik geschnitten. Wir behaupten, dass unser Baisse Ausblick auf
die AUDUSD vor der heutigen chinesischen Daten mit täglichen Zwischenziele auf
38,2 % Retracement genommen Form den Februar-Rückgang bei 1.0070 Augen.
Der japanische Yen ist die Top-Performer der Partie mit einen Vorschuss von 0,61 % echte positive Zinssätze in Japan erhöhen die Attraktivität des Yen als Wertaufbewahrungsmittel Reichtum inmitten wachsender Unsicherheiten im Hinblick auf die globalen Wachstumsaussichten. Suchen Sie die USDJPY, Unterstützung bei der 200-Tage gleitenden Durchschnitt knapp über die 79-Figur, mit einer Pause unter dieser Marke riskieren einen weitere erheblichen Rückzug auf den 15. Juni am 78.60 zu begegnen. Ruhetag, unser long-Position gestern für einen Gewinn von nur 20pips inmitten der laufenden Risiko-Sell-off mit der aktuellen Rückzug bietet günstige lange Positionierung unter den 79-Griff. Mit QE Hoffnungen abklingen, Look für breitere Marktstimmung zu Laufwerk-Preis-Aktion mit heute Abend die Daten Version wahrscheinlich Funke hinzugefügt Volatilität paarweise Dollar basiert.
Der
Greenback ist fester am Ende der North American Handel mit Dow Jones FXCM Dollar
Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) Förderung von 0,29 % auf die Sitzung nach dem Umzug
nahezu 100 % der seine tägliche durchschnittliche true Bereich. Die Gewinne
kommen auf der Rückseite noch ein Ausverkauf an den Aktienmärkten, die die
Mehrheit der kämpfen, um die frühen Verluste pare Sitzung ausgegeben. Stimmung
bleibt fragil, nachdem gestrigen FOMC-Protokoll nicht Investoren, die eifrig
eine Verschiebung im Ausschuss zu Gunsten weitere Lockerung von der Zentralbank
Vorwegnahme wurden zu beeindrucken. Märkte bleiben am Rand vor dem heutigen 2Q
chinesische BIP Print mit Analystenkonsensus beim Lesen von 7,7 % y/y, nach
unten aus einer früheren Auflage von 8,1 % y/y gefordert. Die Daten würden die
niedrigsten gelesen auf das chinesische Wachstum seit 2Q 2009 markieren und
konnte Zurichs der letzten Ausverkauf in Gefahr. Es ist jedoch anzumerken, dass
die Baisse Stimmung hinsichtlich dieser Druck hat sich im Laufe der Woche
durchgesetzt und eine stärker als erwartet lesen Sie Märkte, die einen Teil des
Niedergangs der Woche pare sehen konnte. Alle drei großen Aktienindizes waren im
roten Ende des Handels in New York mit der Dow, S & P und NASDAQ Weg von
0,25 %, 0,50 % und 0,75 % beziehungsweise.
Der Dollar brach über dem täglichen Widerstand bei den 78,6 %
Fibonacci-Erweiterung aus der Oktober und Februar Tröge bei 10.180 vor der
Begegnung mit Widerstand bei den 10.220 weiches Ziel genommen. Beachten Sie,
dass der Bruch oberhalb der 28. Juni Hochs bei 10.193 Verletzung über den Hals
ein umgekehrtes Kopf SKS-Formation mit obenliegender Beständigkeit Zielvorgaben
bei 10.270 und die 100 %-Erweiterung 10.318 Augen darstellt. Tägliche
Unterstützung bleibt unter der pro-Tiefs bei 10.134, die die Oktober-Höhen
darstellen. Dieses Niveau bleibt nun vorrangig mit einer Pause unten einen
Pullback auf die wichtige 61,8 %-Erweiterung 10.072 riskieren. Tägliche RSI
Augen jetzt eine Verletzung über der 60-Marke, mit einem solchen Szenario bietet
weitere Überzeugung auf unsere direktionale Voreingenommenheit. Eine
stündliche Kopfhaut-Diagramm zeigt den Index erholt aus dem 100 % Fibonacci
Verlängerung vom 20. Juni und 29. Tröge auf 10.216 vor Schließung knapp über
weiche Unterstützung bei 10.200. Der Dollar hat sich innerhalb der Grenzen einer
aufsteigenden Kanal-Formation mit einer Verletzung über einstweilige Widerstand
betrachtete nachfolgende Ziele auf 10.235, 123,6 % Erweiterung an 10.255 und
10.270 weiter. Eine Bewegung unter 78.6 % Erweiterung an 10.180 macht die Kopf
SKS-Formation mit einem solchen Szenario betrachtete nachfolgende Etagen auf
61,8 % Erweiterung an 10.152, 10.132 und 38,2 % Erweiterung an 10.112 ungültig.
Der
Greenback erweiterte gegen drei der vier Währungen hervorgehoben durch einen
1,07 % Fortschritt gegenüber dem australischen Dollar. Enttäuschend
Beschäftigungsdaten und einer anhaltenden Risiko-aus Umgebung haben stark den
Aussie belastet die unterhalb der Kanal-Unterstützung aus dem 1.Juni
Übernachtung Handel brach. Suchen Sie das Paar, das unter Druck bleiben, wie
Erwartungen für weitere Lockerung von der RBA mit Credit Suisse über Nacht Swaps
fassen jetzt factoring in 71 % Chance einen 25 Basispunkte auf der nächsten
Sitzung der Politik geschnitten. Wir behaupten, dass unser Baisse Ausblick auf
die AUDUSD vor der heutigen chinesischen Daten mit täglichen Zwischenziele auf
38,2 % Retracement genommen Form den Februar-Rückgang bei 1.0070 Augen.Der japanische Yen ist die Top-Performer der Partie mit einen Vorschuss von 0,61 % echte positive Zinssätze in Japan erhöhen die Attraktivität des Yen als Wertaufbewahrungsmittel Reichtum inmitten wachsender Unsicherheiten im Hinblick auf die globalen Wachstumsaussichten. Suchen Sie die USDJPY, Unterstützung bei der 200-Tage gleitenden Durchschnitt knapp über die 79-Figur, mit einer Pause unter dieser Marke riskieren einen weitere erheblichen Rückzug auf den 15. Juni am 78.60 zu begegnen. Ruhetag, unser long-Position gestern für einen Gewinn von nur 20pips inmitten der laufenden Risiko-Sell-off mit der aktuellen Rückzug bietet günstige lange Positionierung unter den 79-Griff. Mit QE Hoffnungen abklingen, Look für breitere Marktstimmung zu Laufwerk-Preis-Aktion mit heute Abend die Daten Version wahrscheinlich Funke hinzugefügt Volatilität paarweise Dollar basiert.
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